Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Looking at individual ECM ensembles members this morning, the number of "snow potential" runs has increased again slightly by D15 (perhaps just slightly over 50% now). Most notable, though, is the increase in members with substantial blocks to the north - perhaps 25% with very good blocks over Greenland now (and a few in other spots to the north), whereas a couple of days ago the blocks were fairly average.

    However - it must be stressed - we have not yet reached a tipping point on the ECM ensembles, in my opinion. When it comes to the Greenland High, I personally like to see 70% of members going for a clear cold pattern before calling it a forecast. I recall in November 2017 that it was those sort of values that preceded our northerly outbreaks. At the present time, if one was hoping for a south-westerly end to the month, they could still find reasonable hope for that too. 

    But the trend is clearly towards the cold.

    Clusters will hopefully update - the uppper pattern much easier to assess on those 

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Nice to still see some (limited) snow potential tonight. A few lucky ones might even see some accumulated snow-grains in their roof gullies...

    image.thumb.png.4e3e60320c7b0913b5ca684058ffb92b.png

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    If this is the holding pattern before any Northern Blocking, then I'll be a happy man

    GFS(P) - ignoring the time stamp, example only.

    image.thumb.png.f68eea76dbb0dd4de7154779fb4bfb03.png

    I go back to December 2017 when we had Slider after slider, but unfortunately down south or away from modest Altitude it just didn't cut the mustard. The uppers weren't cold enough, which is fairly typical of December, this would be a different story!

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Remember a few days ago the ECMWF MJO forecasts were far too quick with the wave through phases 7 & 8 and at a very low amplitude. The reality seems to be that the speed was slower and at a higher amplitude and perhaps this is now starting to show the the ENS.

    Interestingly, the ECMWF MJO forecast is looking to collapse into the COD, I wonder if this will be the case? If it does go into the COD it looks like emerging in 6 so could move back into more favourable 7-8-1 too.

    image.thumb.png.abd1b8894a0a75c9c1afa0a59cd2cfd4.png

    Edited by mountain shadow
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx

    Latest from CPC on the MJO... Safe to say A LOT going on in the Pacific !!

    IMG_20190108_082706.thumb.jpg.b4add2d1bc4d31af6ae5bca111d84b71.jpg

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

    Just wanted to take the liberty of repeating a post I made on Sunday evening.

    "Just wanted to post this up. It's a S.E.Regional post I made last night, regarding a phone conversation I had with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, yesterday evening,"

    Quote: 

    "Just had a long chat with local Weatherman, Ian Currie. Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E."

    Nothing I've seen from the 00z runs has changed my mind that Mr.Currie isn't going to be far off the mark, with his suggestions. He did suggest we may need a few "bites of the cherry" before we see a more definitive Northerly outbreak. I think we can see from the Models a couple of attempted glancing Northerlies, or as I put it, "Dwarves From the North"!! :oldgrin:

    As I expected the UKMO not showing anything interesting just yet, hopefully that will come by the end of the weekend. Likewise, not expecting any "fireworks" from ECM, for another couple of days.

    As I stated earlier, Ian doesn't foresee strong Greenland blocking but that any resultant Northerly will come courtesy of a strong ridge, from a mid-Atlantic High. From what I've seen over the last few days, the Models seem to be coming to the same conclusion. I did go on to ask Ian about the possibility of a Scandinavian High. Mr. Currie didn't expect that scenario, anytime soon but that was certainly a possibility, as we enter the final month of Winter. Having seen those EC 46 dayers posted last night, hopefully a Scandinavian High looks a distinct possibility and would be a fabulous way to end Winter!!

    But let's get January out of the way first.

    Regards,

    Tom.  :hi:

    Hi Tom, so what scenario does Ian see being played out for the second half of winter?...if not a Greenland High or Scandi high in the foreseeable, a strong Atlantic ridge to Greenland would probably last a few days at most.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Looking purely at the nwp, everything seems to be ticking along nicely towards a landing date for decent  winter weather around the 21st January. A date not without historical interest.?

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    I’ll take something like ensemble member 1 please, just look at this run, outrageous, uppers not the best but still mad

    0005C5BD-33A7-44AC-B1F0-635F48BA8F42.thumb.png.8b4f4a09648233d10fa97d84bd1a741a.png920F9C07-1104-4859-9AE1-2BD13687D9DA.thumb.png.1e168d6a6c09e6e21f59200d67b4e239.pngB86564F9-AFF3-48D6-93DB-ABF07F39BBF7.thumb.png.b3340e767db9d9a296e40cf964f949d4.pngBED496D2-09A0-4469-92B1-4ADF133EA63E.thumb.png.c9e6b95add75467f440ae06d416e7622.png

    Edited by Weathizard
    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    I’ll take something like ensemble member 1 please, just look at this run, outrageous, uppers not the best but still mad

    0005C5BD-33A7-44AC-B1F0-635F48BA8F42.thumb.png.8b4f4a09648233d10fa97d84bd1a741a.png920F9C07-1104-4859-9AE1-2BD13687D9DA.thumb.png.1e168d6a6c09e6e21f59200d67b4e239.pngB86564F9-AFF3-48D6-93DB-ABF07F39BBF7.thumb.png.b3340e767db9d9a296e40cf964f949d4.pngBED496D2-09A0-4469-92B1-4ADF133EA63E.thumb.png.c9e6b95add75467f440ae06d416e7622.png

    Lovely, all good things come to those who wait ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Market Rasen
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Fog Thunderstorms
  • Location: Market Rasen

    Well quote me if I'm wrong but 00z control run looks an outlier to me and there seems to be a trend with most ensembles going below average now the control run would do nicely !

    gefsens850London0-10.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    29 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

    Latest from CPC on the MJO... Safe to say A LOT going on in the Pacific !!

    IMG_20190108_082706.thumb.jpg.b4add2d1bc4d31af6ae5bca111d84b71.jpg

    Wondering if the stalling MJO wave over the Central / East Pacific will weaken trade winds sufficiently to warm up the ocean to allow El Nino Modoki to develop and finally couple with the atmosphere. This would allow a +PNA ridge to develop over western N America and trough over eastern NAM - helping amplify the flow downstream and PNA ridge perhaps joining up with cross polar ridging as per GEFS day 10.

    gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_41.thumb.png.264627988f40dfee36d01ef3f5dfbc62.png

    Just need the collocated trop and strat vortex over NE Canada to weaken to allow that amplification to work through the NAO region though. Then it would be game on for Greenland ridge!

     

    36 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Remember a few days ago the ECMWF MJO forecasts were far too quick with the wave through phases 7 & 8 and at a very low amplitude. The reality seems to be that the speed was slower and at a higher amplitude and perhaps this is now starting to show the the ENS.

    Interestingly, the ECMWF MJO forecast is looking to collapse into the COD, I wonder if this will be the case? If it does go into the COD it looks like emerging in 6 so could move back into more favourable 7-8-1 too.

    image.thumb.png.abd1b8894a0a75c9c1afa0a59cd2cfd4.png

    Will still get the imprint of phase 8 if the MJO stalls from that phase into COD (over central / east Pacific) - just a weaker imprint, good chance of it coming back out in 6 and back through the colder phases again.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

    gfs-5-192.pnggfs-5-198.png

    Jet Profile is completely different on this run (06z first)
    gfs-0-192.png?6

    gfs-0-216.png?6
    Complex is the word....

    That low could produce a lot of rain or even snow if it engages the cold air to the north more.

    Edited by frosty ground
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    What a bizzare Atlantic profile this is

    11D45811-1B56-433F-9881-E520761D2D9A.png

    Yes bizarre but much better than the GFS 00 hrs run upstream .

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Much better Atlantic ridging, I'd say? Things still going as hoped. Sort of! 

    image.thumb.png.5e9cf21ae402ada63ac2cc6304bf95e5.png

    No academic-sounding treatise, this time, I'm afraid...?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Typical GFS blows up that low and flattens the pattern, but good signs all the same - low pressure retained in the med is always a massive bonus longer we can keep that in situ the better.

    E06FD230-6AD2-471D-B995-2B349E76DB6F.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Typical GFS blows up that low and flattens the pattern, but good signs all the same - low pressure retained in the med is always a massive bonus longer we can keep that in situ the better.

    E06FD230-6AD2-471D-B995-2B349E76DB6F.png

    Another direction but no decent cold this run , I think day 10-12 is still way up in the air with the actual weather on the ground, although hemispherically you can see general improvements. Still think there are some opportunities for snow mid/late next week if we can hold onto some cold air long enough for sliders/LP to engage with. Let’s see what the GEFS throw out.

    Edited by Ali1977
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    On this run by Jan 20:

    gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.2f0ca833fa1d6648d4d50a76dd2c635c.png

    Much better NH profile viz PV breakage, what I was expecting.

    I suspect as the Atlantic slows (GFS bias and background), more disruption, so upgrades possible?

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Does the gfs need a software update or something because it’s churning out synoptic garbage at the moment,little ares of low pressure moving about all over the place lol

    they  might us well let a bunch of kids use a computer to show what they think the NH will look like,probably be more accurate than gfs at the moment!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    2 minutes ago, IDO said:

    On this run by Jan 20:

    gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.2f0ca833fa1d6648d4d50a76dd2c635c.png

    Much better NH profile viz PV breakage, what I was expecting.

    I suspect as the Atlantic slows (GFS bias and background), more disruption, so upgrades possible?

    Good luck if you think this gfs run will verify,you think ?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...