Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[andymusic]

17 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Looks decent for many but I'm in Porthcawl and it seems as though the Swansea Bay/ Vale of Glamorgan snow shield is still going strong mate, hope you're away from there if you like snow  

based in Pontypridd right on top of a 240m mountain - very famous mountain too - laura street just below us where Sir Tom Jones grew up - last years beast gave us 7 foot drifts - this time could be even worse with the longevity too - drifts up to the bungalows roof could very well be possible the way the models are sizing up

Edited January 10, 2019 by andymusic

[warrenb]

GFS not buying it, keeping a strong connection between PV lobes.

[Weathizard]

Question on the 144UKM chart, it’s still a NW/WNW flow initially but as the origin of the flow is from Europe does the same modification still happen as when we get a polar NW flow? (Ie’ do the uppers need to be as low to deliver snow from the same wind direction as they would when it involves Atlantic modification)

Been watching charts for years and don’t often see a flow like that.

[weirpig]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Finally!! 

Indeed  lets see if the GFS follows suit.  Sorry did i just say that out aloud 

[mountain shadow]

Just now, warrenb said:

GFS not buying it, keeping a strong connection between PV lobes.

There's a shocker!

[northumberland snowman]

3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Look at the scatter though, many runs alternate between average and cold as a result of a cold zonal pattern. It isn't the persistent snowy cold that most are craving. There would be snow in the NW for many but this would quickly be washed away by rain... rinse and repeat whilst Northern blocking struggles to build.

The 06z parallel however shows the way once more.

Lots of scatter mid term but not so much long term..

[andymusic]

8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

 UKMO 144  hello  cold northerly in a few days (if right )

 

 

 

don't think it'll be far from wrong

[Steve C]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Question on the 144UKM chart, it’s still a NW/WNW flow initially but as the origin of the flow is from Europe does the same modification still happen as when we get a polar NW flow? (Ie’ do the uppers need to be as low to deliver snow from the same wind direction as they would when it involves Atlantic modification)

Been watching charts for years and don’t often see a flow like that.

I'd call it an Arctic maritime flow personally. 

[weirpig]

Just to compare the UKMO 144/ and GFS  quite a  difference at such a short lead time.   got to back the UKMO  surely?.

Edited January 10, 2019 by weirpig

[Weathizard]

Of course the GFS is flatter and more progressive with the Atlantic, ECM will be interesting later see which way it goes.

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Of course the GFS is flatter and more progressive with the Atlantic, ECM will be interesting later see which way it goes.

And the Para  see if its data is reading the same as the GFS   interesting evening. 

[Weathizard]

This run could still be good, as long as those two systems don’t phase and flatten the ridge attempting to build between them.

[shaky]

Gfs slightly different again on 12z!!looks better than 06z maybe!!its doing something but it just doesnt know what lol!!typiccal gfs!!

[tight isobar]

Ukmo 144...

Give the gfs a chance latter frames..

@pac ridge-AT/MLB...

[Weathizard]

Lol at that low

[Norrance]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Question on the 144UKM chart, it’s still a NW/WNW flow initially but as the origin of the flow is from Europe does the same modification still happen as when we get a polar NW flow? (Ie’ do the uppers need to be as low to deliver snow from the same wind direction as they would when it involves Atlantic modification)

Been watching charts for years and don’t often see a flow like that.

Some similarity with the flow round the low to the NE in late Nov 2010 but much better HLB then.

 

[weirpig]

That low on the east side of USA  has gone from a 985mb depression to a 955mb  in the space of one run   

[northwestsnow]

Less said about GFS the better..

So different to the 6z , not in a good way.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Less said about GFS the better..

So different to the 6z , not in a good way.

I think it will be decent in a minute.

[warrenb]

Looking at it, I am going for a Easterly later in the run from GFS. Lobe link is weakest to our NE.

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Less said about GFS the better..

So different to the 6z , not in a good way.

The fact it is so different makes me think it hasn’t got a clue. Over to the ECM, let’s hope that follows the UKMO. GEFS obviously in the mean time. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think it will be decent in a minute.

I dont..

Be happy of your right but ...

[Spah1]

We’ll if this is wrong GFS 144hrs there’s not much point watching the rest of the run

UKMO flirting with a brief chilly northerly at 144hrs. Better than nothing

[Midlander]

As others have said would rather have the UKMO/ECMWF on side rather than GEM/GFS.

[bluearmy]

I think the GEM offers one of the options very much on the table as the weak wedge holds the trough just west - I think this is just about as good as we can hope for if we don’t get a big ridge as per ukmo