Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Mucka]

Yes ECM not cold but looking primed (dismissing wafts of cold air)

That next trough would push through and then looks like a strong Atlantic ridge would build possibly linking with the Arctic high - a long way off for that sort theorising though.

Edited January 8, 2019 by Mucka

[Blessed Weather]

Good morning. I have moved several late night/overnight posts to the 'Model banter' thread here. Let's keep this thread 'on topic' and follow the guidelines Paul has pinned to the top of every page. Many thanks.

"Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans."

[Tom Quintavalle]

Just wanted to take the liberty of repeating a post I made on Sunday evening.

"Just wanted to post this up. It's a S.E.Regional post I made last night, regarding a phone conversation I had with local Meteorologist, Ian Currie, yesterday evening,"

Quote: 

"Just had a long chat with local Weatherman, Ian Currie. Ian is fully expecting a cold second half of Winter. Like some of the Forecast Models seem to be suggesting, the wintry weather will be coming from the North. He did state that it will probably take a few bites of the cherry, for this to happen. He suggests around the 20th/21st Jan. will be the timescale, to look out for. He expects a S.E. diving low, to be the catalyst for opening the floodgates to the North and expects the flow to eventually turn to the N.E."

Nothing I've seen from the 00z runs has changed my mind that Mr.Currie isn't going to be far off the mark, with his suggestions. He did suggest we may need a few "bites of the cherry" before we see a more definitive Northerly outbreak. I think we can see from the Models a couple of attempted glancing Northerlies, or as I put it, "Dwarves From the North"!! 

As I expected the UKMO not showing anything interesting just yet, hopefully that will come by the end of the weekend. Likewise, not expecting any "fireworks" from ECM, for another couple of days.

As I stated earlier, Ian doesn't foresee strong Greenland blocking but that any resultant Northerly will come courtesy of a strong ridge, from a mid-Atlantic High. From what I've seen over the last few days, the Models seem to be coming to the same conclusion. I did go on to ask Ian about the possibility of a Scandinavian High. Mr. Currie didn't expect that scenario, anytime soon but that was certainly a possibility, as we enter the final month of Winter. Having seen those EC 46 dayers posted last night, hopefully a Scandinavian High looks a distinct possibility and would be a fabulous way to end Winter!!

But let's get January out of the way first.

Regards,

Tom.  

Edited January 8, 2019 by TomSE12

[IDO]

The trend continues and strengthens in the GEFS:

T324    

Obviously in FI but the pattern initiating earlier. A mean of -4 to -6 over most of the UK by then.

I am confident some pattern will show similar to the above, the question is how well will the cold/snow fit the UK?

"The two most powerful warriors are patience and time".

[carinthian]

Morning all. Well this chart from UKMO at 144t lifts the spirits big style. One of the best looking NH 500mb profile charts of the winter season so far and all in a reasonable time span. Looks like the polar vortex starting to make its nest to the NE  and possibly the affects of SSW now evolving into the models as the colder air starts in journey westward through the high levels of our atmosphere. Will be exciting to see it evolve .

C

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Well this chart from UKMO at 144t lifts the spirits big style. One of the best looking NH 500mb profile charts of the winter season so far and all in a reasonable time span. Looks like the polar vortex starting to make its nest to the NE  and possibly the affects of SSW now evolving into the models as the colder air starts in journey westward through the high levels of our atmosphere. Will be exciting to see it evolve .

C

Not sure i agree with that. ECM is almost identical at 144:



By day 10 it has lifted the PV lobe out of scandi and spun back up in its usual unwanted spot:

[That ECM]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

The trend continues and strengthens in the GEFS:

T324    

Obviously in FI but the pattern initiating earlier. A mean of -4 to -6 over most of the UK by then.

I am confident some pattern will show similar to the above, the question is how well will the cold/snow fit the UK?

"The two most powerful warriors are patience and time".

Atlantic ridge is the form horse. Longer term mean would suggest that also. 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Not sure i agree with that. ECM is almost identical at 144:



By day 10 it has lifted the PV lobe out of scandi and spun back up in its usual unwanted spot:

If you have a look through the gefs you will see the control p1 p2 p3 p4 p5 p6 p7 p9 p10 p11 p14 p16 p18 p19 have the “pv lode” where your suggesting wouldn’t be great but look at the result for us. 

[carinthian]

9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. Well this chart from UKMO at 144t lifts the spirits big style. One of the best looking NH 500mb profile charts of the winter season so far and all in a reasonable time span. Looks like the polar vortex starting to make its nest to the NE  and possibly the affects of SSW now evolving into the models as the colder air starts in journey westward through the high levels of our atmosphere. Will be exciting to see it evolve .

C

Furthermore to the above post, this chart below from UKMO shows a significant expansion of the cold air to the NE (120t-144t) propagating South West down through to the 500mb layer. 

C

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, That ECM said:

If you have a look through the gefs you will see the control p1 p2 p3 p4 p5 p6 p7 p9 p10 p11 p14 p16 p18 p19 have the “pv lode” where your suggesting wouldn’t be great but look at the result for us. 

the PV can go where it flipping well likes if we end up like this, because it won’t matter 

as per a lot of the GEFS like you say. Good set of overnight runs

Edited January 8, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

59 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Sorry, its silly FI so just for fun. But who needs high latitude blocking if you can achieve this. 

I can quite safely say there has never been a chart like that....

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

the PV can go where it flipping well likes if we end up like this, because it won’t matter 

as per a lot of the GEFS like you say. Good set of overnight runs

My winter forecast needs that to land & hold to create the anomaly pattern for Jan / Feb

[Summer Sun]

The ECM mean suggests the peak of this cold snap will be Thursday we'll then see a recovery in temps over the weekend and into  early next week before the mean begins to trend down again in about a weeks time

[nick sussex]

An okay ECM run continuing last nights trend .

Unfortunately the GFS is an ugly underwhelming run . Some GEFS develop more interest though but we don’t want to see that 00 hrs run repeated again . Be gone with you !

[mulzy]

Ext EPS continue to show a favourable and ever-improving pattern in the medium term (10-15 days).  Strong mid-Atlantic heights heading north into Greenland and polar regions with a strong Sceuro trough.  Expect the Debilt 2m ensembles to be the best we've had for a while.

Edited January 8, 2019 by mulzy

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS continue to show a favourable and ever-improving pattern in the medium term (10-15 days).  Strong mid-Atlantic heights heading north into Greenland and polar regions with a strong Sceuro trough.  Expect the Debilt 2m ensembles to be the best we've had for a while.

And a "warm" welcome to the -20 on the chart 

[bluearmy]

Getting to ens strength  levels at week two end not seen since last feb ......  we would have to be the unluckiest place in unluckydom to miss out final third of this month (and beyond) 

unless mogreps is its usual slow self to spot a change, expect Exeter to drop some caveats and be more bullish later 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

An okay ECM run continuing last nights trend .

Unfortunately the GFS is an ugly underwhelming run . Some GEFS develop more interest though but we don’t want to see that 00 hrs run repeated again . Be gone with you !

Personally, I actually think the GFS 0z is very good for January with frequent high pressure bringing plenty of dry weather, certainly much better than the past several weeks when it was low after low bringing gales and floods here in South Wales

[minus86BriJ]

8 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Personally, I actually think the GFS 0z is very good for January with frequent high pressure bringing plenty of dry weather, certainly much better than the past several weeks when it was low after low bringing gales and floods here in South Wales

? Did you accidently repost this, surely this was posted before santy came?

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Personally, I actually think the GFS 0z is very good for January with frequent high pressure bringing plenty of dry weather, certainly much better than the past several weeks when it was low after low bringing gales and floods here in South Wales

We’ve done the high pressure and are bored now!  We want it to scoot off to the north or nw. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Personally, I actually think the GFS 0z is very good for January with frequent high pressure bringing plenty of dry weather, certainly much better than the past several weeks when it was low after low bringing gales and floods here in South Wales

Certainly is, could be miles worse, low after low, rain everyday on a southerly tracking jet, temps stuck around 5 degrees YUK

[karlos1983]

37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Getting to ens strength  levels at week two end not seen since last feb ......  we would have to be the unluckiest place in unluckydom to miss out final third of this month (and beyond) 

unless mogreps is its usual slow self to spot a change, expect Exeter to drop some caveats and be more bullish later 

If it can happen anywhere it will be the United unluckydom!! But I agree I would expect to see some wording change soon. In fact I think Mr Currie would might be worth another chat on the dog n bone @TomSE12  because I reckon his wording will have changed everso slightly following last nights EC update..

Edited January 8, 2019 by karlos1983

[Spah1]

Just reading the Strat thread (and the snails pace of the the trop response to the SSW) and the MO update looks like we will have to wait until post Jan 25th for any HLB now. 

If Feb delivers the cold weather most want it will be worth the wait.

[Eskimo]

For mobile users (at least for Android), just hold your finger on the picture in meteociel (ie. frame you want to show in the model run) until a bubble pops up - takes a couple of seconds. You can save the image that way without having to crop. 

Cropping reduces the quality of the image and it gets rather hard to see the features. 

[Norrance]

Let’s stick to the models in this thread. Thanks.