Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Again, those meteociel-charts 500mb aren't very good...

Could end up in a very southern west (Ws) scenario

GFSOPNH06_240_1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FWIW the GFS FI strat charts are looking pretty scandi highish for around early February.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To be honest, the Canada lobe is not the issue, it is the trough dropping into Europe is to close, and not allowing a large enough kinks in the flow in the Jet Stream. What we need is a drift of the Euro lobe east to allow a (dare I say it) a wedge. If we get this things could get very interesting, as the Canada lobe will spit chunks of energy, but with a wedge in place these will be steered south.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, warrenb said:

To be honest, the Canada lobe is not the issue, it is the trough dropping into Europe is to close, and not allowing a large enough kinks in the flow in the Jet Stream. What we need is a drift of the Euro lobe east to allow a (dare I say it) a wedge. If we get this things could get very interesting, as the Canada lobe will spit chunks of energy, but with a wedge in place these will be steered south.

Nailed it..

The importance of getting the troughing into Europe is a key ingredient in all this..

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS para is a beauty again

gffdgfdg.thumb.jpg.2ec06ff6fb7a189090298c398dd8bc6c.jpg

That would give the south a good dumping

45664654.png.f3b89b6d73836d463656cb74f571fe8a.png

gfs-2-300.png.8bc60c2af43a2af904b0370e8c70aafe.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Here's another of Gavin's model-watching videos (8/01/19) and the CFS run looks to be a STONKER!

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What an impressive GFS para 6z. Bitter cold till the end of the run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

FWIW the GFS FI strat charts are looking pretty scandi highish for around early February.

Yes looking to the northwest and on the nhp ie pv it would seem the logical thing imo.not as snowy and epic as earlier but looks more realistic to meon the 6 parra

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Clusters updated and still 23% flatter smaller one which has a length transition right out to day 15 when Euro heights finally drop 

43% is as we are expecting things to progress and the 32% middle option is a middle ground cold solution of Euro trough but flatter to our west 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Still looking good for snow on the 06z para, happy days particularly the north and south.:cold:

I'm a lot more positive today, GFS ensembles looking very good too.

gfs-16-336.png

graphe_ens3.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The GFS para is a beauty again

gffdgfdg.thumb.jpg.2ec06ff6fb7a189090298c398dd8bc6c.jpg

That would give the south a good dumping

45664654.png.f3b89b6d73836d463656cb74f571fe8a.png

gfs-2-300.png.8bc60c2af43a2af904b0370e8c70aafe.png

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, central areas but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east but probably would turn to snow as the low moves away. (not that scenario has much chance of playing out). 

Edited by Froze were the Days

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cold and snow starting to show up circa 6 days and counting in Wales on the gfsp - coming ever closer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, DOdo said:

What an impressive GFS para 6z. Bitter cold till the end of the run.

Its worth bearing in mind that this is/was due to go operational in two weeks time.

If it had gone operational at the end of december there would be no GFS as it currently exists ie this would be the GFS and this place would have gone into meltdown 🙂 )

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now that's a trendy set of ensembles ,click to update

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Edited by winterof79

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, central areas but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east but probably would turn to snow as the low moves away. (not that scenario has much chance of playing out). 

dont the last two images show snow for south? Unless i'm missing something?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The GFS para is a beauty again

gffdgfdg.thumb.jpg.2ec06ff6fb7a189090298c398dd8bc6c.jpg

That would give the south a good dumping

45664654.png.f3b89b6d73836d463656cb74f571fe8a.png

gfs-2-300.png.8bc60c2af43a2af904b0370e8c70aafe.png

a weird hole in the midlands hmm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, maybe parts of Wales/SW but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east (not that scenario has much chance of playing out).

FWIW (and it isn’t at that range) I don’t think you could say that the south and se would avoid a decent snow event from that chart (especially given the one that follows )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Now that's a trendy set of ensembles

 

Looking at the ensemble line (white) seems to suggest three episodes of slightly warmer 850's followed by colder 850's with each time the 850's getting colder than previously. 

Would seem to tie in with lows sliding NW/SE  and is a scenario that has been seen before in the UK before the onset of a very cold period

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Thank you!!

That’s all i’m seeing too, I’m really struggling to understand the excitement. It’ll be below average & cold, exceptionally so? Unlikely. Widespread heavy snowfall? Unlikely. 

If you’re in the North & living on a hill then be excited, but if you’re in the South I can’t see it, mid Atlantic blocks & Northerlies rarely produce widely. 

The models show colder weather, but nothing to match the level of excitement.. 

I  disagree with that there will be excitement because the winter has a whole has been very boring so if we get short cold snap I expect folks we be excited it could lead to a more prolonged spell of cold anyway lots of changes to come over next few weeks and I see some posts above saying no real blocking for  sustained cold spell.  isn't it way to early for models to picking that up has only 10 of January.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I  disagree with that there will be excitement because the winter has a whole has been very boring so if we get short cold snap I expect folks we be excited it could lead to a more prolonged spell of cold anyway lots of changes to come over next few weeks and I see some posts above saying no real blocking for  sustained cold spell.  isn't it way to early for models to picking that up has only 10 of January.

I think there is plenty of blocking, just not in the right place for the UK. The rest of Europe having plenty of freezing temperatures and snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...