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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Again, those meteociel-charts 500mb aren't very good...

Could end up in a very southern west (Ws) scenario

GFSOPNH06_240_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

FWIW the GFS FI strat charts are looking pretty scandi highish for around early February.

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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

To be honest, the Canada lobe is not the issue, it is the trough dropping into Europe is to close, and not allowing a large enough kinks in the flow in the Jet Stream. What we need is a drift of the Euro lobe east to allow a (dare I say it) a wedge. If we get this things could get very interesting, as the Canada lobe will spit chunks of energy, but with a wedge in place these will be steered south.

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Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

Thanks for the info warrenb.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, warrenb said:

To be honest, the Canada lobe is not the issue, it is the trough dropping into Europe is to close, and not allowing a large enough kinks in the flow in the Jet Stream. What we need is a drift of the Euro lobe east to allow a (dare I say it) a wedge. If we get this things could get very interesting, as the Canada lobe will spit chunks of energy, but with a wedge in place these will be steered south.

Nailed it..

The importance of getting the troughing into Europe is a key ingredient in all this..

 

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Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

The GFS para is a beauty again

gffdgfdg.thumb.jpg.2ec06ff6fb7a189090298c398dd8bc6c.jpg

That would give the south a good dumping

45664654.png.f3b89b6d73836d463656cb74f571fe8a.png

gfs-2-300.png.8bc60c2af43a2af904b0370e8c70aafe.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Here's another of Gavin's model-watching videos (8/01/19) and the CFS run looks to be a STONKER!

 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

FWIW the GFS FI strat charts are looking pretty scandi highish for around early February.

Yes looking to the northwest and on the nhp ie pv it would seem the logical thing imo.not as snowy and epic as earlier but looks more realistic to meon the 6 parra

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Clusters updated and still 23% flatter smaller one which has a length transition right out to day 15 when Euro heights finally drop 

43% is as we are expecting things to progress and the 32% middle option is a middle ground cold solution of Euro trough but flatter to our west 

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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

Could be MJO affected

gfsnh-0-288.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

Still looking good for snow on the 06z para, happy days particularly the north and south.:cold:

I'm a lot more positive today, GFS ensembles looking very good too.

gfs-16-336.png

graphe_ens3.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
16 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The GFS para is a beauty again

gffdgfdg.thumb.jpg.2ec06ff6fb7a189090298c398dd8bc6c.jpg

That would give the south a good dumping

45664654.png.f3b89b6d73836d463656cb74f571fe8a.png

gfs-2-300.png.8bc60c2af43a2af904b0370e8c70aafe.png

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, central areas but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east but probably would turn to snow as the low moves away. (not that scenario has much chance of playing out). 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
8 minutes ago, DOdo said:

What an impressive GFS para 6z. Bitter cold till the end of the run.

Its worth bearing in mind that this is/was due to go operational in two weeks time.

If it had gone operational at the end of december there would be no GFS as it currently exists ie this would be the GFS and this place would have gone into meltdown )

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Now that's a trendy set of ensembles ,click to update

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
8 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, central areas but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east but probably would turn to snow as the low moves away. (not that scenario has much chance of playing out). 

dont the last two images show snow for south? Unless i'm missing something?

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
21 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The GFS para is a beauty again

gffdgfdg.thumb.jpg.2ec06ff6fb7a189090298c398dd8bc6c.jpg

That would give the south a good dumping

45664654.png.f3b89b6d73836d463656cb74f571fe8a.png

gfs-2-300.png.8bc60c2af43a2af904b0370e8c70aafe.png

a weird hole in the midlands hmm

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
13 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Talk about misleading - if that came about a snow fest for the midlands, maybe parts of Wales/SW but the south and south east forget it (too much milder air in the circulation from the south) - so that map is incorrect you need more of a 'flatter' sliding area of low pressure or further to the east (not that scenario has much chance of playing out).

FWIW (and it isn’t at that range) I don’t think you could say that the south and se would avoid a decent snow event from that chart (especially given the one that follows )

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Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Now that's a trendy set of ensembles

 

Looking at the ensemble line (white) seems to suggest three episodes of slightly warmer 850's followed by colder 850's with each time the 850's getting colder than previously. 

Would seem to tie in with lows sliding NW/SE  and is a scenario that has been seen before in the UK before the onset of a very cold period

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Thank you!!

That’s all i’m seeing too, I’m really struggling to understand the excitement. It’ll be below average & cold, exceptionally so? Unlikely. Widespread heavy snowfall? Unlikely. 

If you’re in the North & living on a hill then be excited, but if you’re in the South I can’t see it, mid Atlantic blocks & Northerlies rarely produce widely. 

The models show colder weather, but nothing to match the level of excitement.. 

I  disagree with that there will be excitement because the winter has a whole has been very boring so if we get short cold snap I expect folks we be excited it could lead to a more prolonged spell of cold anyway lots of changes to come over next few weeks and I see some posts above saying no real blocking for  sustained cold spell.  isn't it way to early for models to picking that up has only 10 of January.

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Posted
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Now that's a trendy set of ensembles ,click to update

MT8_Manchester_ens.png

Very impressive they are. 

 

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I  disagree with that there will be excitement because the winter has a whole has been very boring so if we get short cold snap I expect folks we be excited it could lead to a more prolonged spell of cold anyway lots of changes to come over next few weeks and I see some posts above saying no real blocking for  sustained cold spell.  isn't it way to early for models to picking that up has only 10 of January.

I think there is plenty of blocking, just not in the right place for the UK. The rest of Europe having plenty of freezing temperatures and snow. 

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