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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted (edited)

As an adjunct to EC46  - a distinct shift to cold in the ECM ENS for London

image.thumb.png.68b12109b4b433ca906e0d7a9e0821b3.png

Edited by Purga
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

The gfs para has got stuck at T186 . This is where it is at - 

CB91867A-006A-4FEC-A347-EF988E3E46AA.png

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Empire Of Snow Community Regular

Empire Of Snow

Posted
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
  • Location: Harrogate, Pannal Ash, 179m
Posted
43 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Interesting article in the Washington Post suggesting that GFS performance is being affected by US government shutdown because it’s not being maintained because of employees on furlough:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.189acfbd0823

not sure if I believe the claims or whether the GFS model output would be really that affected given it’s probably mostly automated and fed data from around the world. Fake news?

Back to the 18z, as with recent runs, signal increasing for cold zonality at times through next week, thanks to low heights and colder T850s moving from the west, would favour northern hill snow and perhaps lower levels of Scotland at times. Cold rain for the rest of us. No signs of pattern flip this run.

 

Most data is indeed automated but there's still human input.Here's a good read that it doesn't cover fully our questions but still provides some good info.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/WAF-D-16-0179.1

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Looking good at T360 but it’s stuck again. Looks a bit ec46ish . 

A3A3807A-F941-4D18-B333-D4F103F1F83B.png

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
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Posted

Well well well, good news keeps coming tonight. EC46, EPS, GEFS, FV3. Strat downwelling finally on target too. No guarantees but let’s see if perhaps the best ensembles so far continue this trend into the morning. Night all. Keep calm and carry on. 

78162A07-50B4-43D9-806F-9B581D6C1150.gif

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Order of the day..

Ridge making..and wave breaking!!.

4 once now we can turn 2 the operationals..and the supports..

Large scale's have done the breaking open of the pub door!!!..

And the landlord' knows if he kept the lock in on there would be agg'..

And the ramifications ARE....

Mr landlord. You wanted to keep the local p#ss tanks in your estalishment!!.

And syphon there funds!!..

Sorry all there old women' have  turned up..

And the sway of greed..has miss-turned you!!..

And you will be kicked rite in the liveleys!...

Now pop the champers'..because your a xxxx.

 

totally lost... is that due to the MJO ? or is it due to tropical forcing?

Edited by Guest
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

Finally the para finishes and it looks good at the end . 850s not great tho . 

A4EFF4B0-C22E-49F9-B252-D1D523DFB1D3.png

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted

Gfs not without intrest next week with possible snow for Northern England

uksnowrisk(2).thumb.png.f2ef2a030086f357c0a382b66f743bf9.png

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Gfs not without intrest next week with possible snow for Northern England

uksnowrisk(2).thumb.png.f2ef2a030086f357c0a382b66f743bf9.png

Looking at the ENS, next Wed is looking like the first real opportunity for a snow event (more particularly the North) I think there will me a noticeable dip in 850s Wed/Thurs on this run. 

Edit - by the weekend the interest and cold options grow again , going to be another good set. Trends!!

Edited by Ali1977
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 120-144

image.thumb.png.849db62f9b2469d7999c73d3eb96eddc.png

image.thumb.png.63a95e531f298be6437ead98e0ac7f49.png

Looks excellent to me... that lobe over scandy actually pushes towards the UK 120-144..

Very close to a NEly there !

Yes, when the purple headed yogurt slinger is pulled the right way then it will spit cold at the UK. Nice 144 chart. 

UE144-21 (12).gif

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
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Posted (edited)

Couple of examples for a week on Sat. Country wide snow starting to look possible this weekend 20/21 Jan on many Perbs.

3FE0EA9B-98FA-4F07-B1FF-A33D97356AAA.png

3367781B-D951-4141-9E8F-14EEAEA2BFC6.png

75B2C543-7DB8-4BC0-973D-00FF6181185E.png

5233EC98-4E65-4898-9F18-D6312EA76120.png

53576D81-754B-4CDC-8B9E-F85A6E37C270.png

AE2C73BE-35F5-487B-9A2D-251117E79196.png

Coldest set yet I think. 

Edited by Ali1977
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

A change to more normal conditions expected for Jan but nothing really drastic on the cards so no mega cold but a changeable pattern on the cards which is a welcome change.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Oz para  is a stonker in fi.big upgrade imo

Edited by swfc
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Deja Vu

Once again not getting the love for the UKMO, it is showing the same glancing blow and brief waft of cold air as the rest of the output before the ridge moves over and the next trough moves in.

I know we are desperate lads but winds would be Westerly within 24h of that 144 chart.

I guess after the GFS Op anything looks good 

Thank goodness the ensembles were more promising in FI

graphe3_1000_257_78___.gif

 

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Deja Vu

Once again not getting the love for the UKMO, it is showing the same glancing blow and brief waft of cold air as the rest of the output before the ridge moves over and the next trough moves in.

I know we are desperate lads but winds would be Westerly within 24h of that 144 chart.

I guess after the GFS Op anything looks good 

Thank goodness the ensembles were more promising in FI

graphe3_1000_257_78___.gif

 

Nice realistic post Mucka...hopefully a trend to more realism on this thread

00z a bit of a let down after last night's run which I thought was heading in the right way...pick so far the para....Still, as you say ensembles are still heading south so surely it's just a matter of time...? 

GFSPARAEU00_324_1.png

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

Yes, was not a great fan of the 0z. Always the case that this model shows a downgrade after a previously good evening. 

The ensembles are still very good though as is the para.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Wanted to share this, thanks @Sweatyman for giving me the idea , but here is the site that generates those very useful ECM monthly forecast anomaly maps. All free too! Very interesting site with a lot of good info http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

If you look at what this would produce for us at this time then nothing to get excited about. But have a look at the arctic high! Look at the pv! Very nice. ^^^ he doesn’t post for ages and then still beats me

2F4C469F-6914-46ED-BEC5-EBD541D1FD54.png

Edited by That ECM
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

Sorry, its silly FI so just for fun. But who needs high latitude blocking if you can achieve this. 

gfseu-0-384.png

gfseu-1-384 (1).png

gfseu-16-384 (1).png

Edited by Seasonality
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