Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[bluearmy]

29 minutes ago, shotski said:

Strong Greenland anomaly at the end of the run. Gets stronger as we get closer to t-360 , trough over Central Europe. 

Probably more Griceland on second viewing although 2 meter temp anomaly slightly underwhelming. 

I wouldn’t call it strong at the moment .......note that we still have below 10% chance of slp above 1030 mb in the griceland area ... the trend from the 12z eps suite is for the euro trough to be a little more sunk as we head to the latter part of week 2 with the Atlantic ridging edging a bit closer to the uk ....... I suspect we will still have around three clusters and the non euro trough one staying around 20/25% 

I still see more mobility than is perhaps expected, 

really tough to work out any detail ...... going to have to rely on Exeter with their more insightful modelling  ! 

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Not me that’s making it about north westerners  as I said above, and as most members will agree a North westerly feed is not the majority preference. I hope it delivers for you all I really do.. but I’d much rather the Atlantic blocked off and a northerly outbreak followed by North east! 

But hey the weather does what the weather wants. 

 

Northwesterly feed has been alluded and known to be the likely outcome next week for a while now its the transitional period before the real cold starts and as Steve said in an early post snow could be possible even further south with a correctly allined slider much better than mild South Westerlies but each to there own peace.

Edited January 9, 2019 by booferking

[shotski]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t call it strong at the moment .......note that we still have below 10% chance of slp above 1030 mb in the griceland area ... the trend from the 12z eps suite is for the euro trough to be a little more sunk as we head to the latter part of week 2 with the Atlantic ridging edging a bit closer to the uk ....... I suspect we will still have around three clusters and the non euro trough one staying around 20/25% 

I still see more mobility than is perhaps expected, 

really tough to work out any detail ...... going to have to rely on Exeter with their more insightful modelling  ! 

Agreed not a very strong anomaly but strong enough for so far out t-360 but certainly no black holes.

[That ECM]

I’m looking forward to model viewing at this t plus to see where the snow will land 

[January Snowstorm]

Gfs seems to be leading the way for the moment esp the ensembles. In the reliable a change to cold zonal is very likely with some snow for Northern hills.

The strat promises much but whether it will deliver or not won't be known for a while yet. Certainly no decent heights showing up in the 7 to 10 day outlook.

The whole thing feels very different to last March when things happened quickly. My heart says it will go cold but my head is telling me it wont

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs seems to be leading the way for the moment esp the ensembles.

In what context JS ???.  The gefs are pretty much on the same page as the geps and the eps and have been for some time .......

[Mike Poole]

16 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs seems to be leading the way for the moment esp the ensembles. In the reliable a change to cold zonal is very likely with some snow for Northern hills.

The strat promises much but whether it will deliver or not won't be known for a while yet. Certainly no decent heights showing up in the 7 to 10 day outlook.

The whole thing feels very different to last March when things happened quickly. My heart says it will go cold but my head is telling me it wont

The models are still trying to sort themselves out with the boundary conditions from the SSW, I would expect widespread cold UK signals by 22 Jan, not much before.  More than happy to hold my hand up on that if it's wrong.

Edited January 9, 2019 by Mike Poole

[feb1991blizzard]

EPS mean doesn't get above 2c max temps for my location for around the last 5-6 days and doesn't get above 1c for the last 3, mean minimums around -1c.

[feb1991blizzard]

mean snow depth now up to 6cm at the end with max 90 percent tericile up to 16cm.

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS mean doesn't get above 2c max temps for my location for around the last 5-6 days and doesn't get above 1c for the last 3, mean minimums around -1c.

 

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

mean snow depth now up to 6cm at the end with max 90 percent tericile up to 16cm.

600 feet helps!  Fwiw, the uppers and thicknesses on the 12z eps were a little higher than the previous eps  suite by day 15 

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

mean snow depth now up to 6cm at the end with max 90 percent tericile up to 16cm.

Looking good for my location down here to feb on them charts . No higher than 2 and 3 and on the mean . 3cm of snow on the mean . Some members go towards 18 cm .

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

 

600 feet helps!  Fwiw, the uppers and thicknesses on the 12z eps were a little higher than the previous eps  suite by day 15 

The uppers are nearly -6c mean right at the end of the run here.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Looking good for my location down here to feb on them charts . No higher than 2 and 3 and on the mean . 3cm of snow on the mean . Some members go towards 18 cm .

Where do you get these snow charts?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Where do you get these snow charts?

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2638879-saddleworth/ensemble/euro/snow

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Where do you get these snow charts?

This site 

And here’s the graph for my location

[January Snowstorm]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In what context JS ???.  The gefs are pretty much on the same page as the geps and the eps and have been for some time .......

Perhaps so but the ukmo has been showing potential almost every night at the 144 mark yet I don't particularly see that potential moving closer to actually happening. The gf's (purely going on memory) was kind of the first model that latched onto a zonal outlook going forward. 

Anyway as others have said the strat affects should soon be giving us all something to cheer about. And boy do we need it after the last 3 weeks of everlasting dull blandness 

[Had Worse]

  Hadfield, Peak District.

I'm trying to get my head around it. Been up since 5am

 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

This site 

And here’s the graph for my location

Cheers

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

https://meteologix.com/ie/forecast/2638879-saddleworth/ensemble/euro/snow

Cheers

[Weathizard]

I’m just relieved the pressure seems to lowering over Iberia a little, that high needs to do something useful soon as it’s starting to grind my gears

[That ECM]

Gfs looking good out to t204. Less energy from nw could be a “stonker” feb 

Edited January 9, 2019 by That ECM

[Bottled Snow]

42 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

 

The whole thing feels very different to last March when things happened quickly. My heart says it will go cold but my head is telling me it wont

JS - After the SSW last year we had several weeks of zonality before the effects kicled in and during that period many of us had doubts if we would benefit.......Memory can be selective and the cold did not set in overnight...we might be a few days behind this year assuming models and Met Office etc. are close to the Mark...Chin up things are starting to get interesting 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Bottled Snow

[Weathizard]

Bizzare Atlantic profile but looks like it’ll do nicely!

[SMU]

45 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs seems to be leading the way for the moment esp the ensembles. In the reliable a change to cold zonal is very likely with some snow for Northern hills.

The strat promises much but whether it will deliver or not won't be known for a while yet. Certainly no decent heights showing up in the 7 to 10 day outlook.

The whole thing feels very different to last March when things happened quickly. My heart says it will go cold but my head is telling me it wont

No.

If only you ever stopped to analize the runs & how the GFS moves to the euros you would never be so foolish to assume the GFS leading the way-

What you actually seeing is the GFS coming into line with the UKMOs slower evolution.

18z has decelerated the jet to allign the block exactly where we need it ( perfectly in sync with the Strat profiles )

Edited January 9, 2019 by Steve Murr

[chionomaniac]

I’m quite liking the wedgie on this run. I wonder if it will lead to a breakthrough with the arctic high?