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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

This is for are region.

graphe_ens3.png

where do find these maps,looked everywhere TIA 

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Ecm mean better than the op happy days.

not far off a link up of the above average heights by 240h EDH101-240.thumb.gif.48c76b0dec493b5fb372da4c7b020962.gif ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.8632074b611f5015f921f2eeb9df047c.png GEFS gets the linkup by 234h gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_40.thumb.png.5dc8c67a980bc3ea65f6faafff040043.png thanks to @Vikos another good site added to the bookmark list 👍 🙂 GEFS days 9-13 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_9.thumb.png.efc1a31dacc2f7904bdb43a61554be56.png and by days 12 - 16 gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.thumb.png.8736ef9745184c6adfcdf344708167a6.png GEPS by 276h gem-ens_z500a_nhem_47.thumb.png.f358b2f9e18f9b635039082b752b90ca.png given that I am looking at the last week of Jan for blocking potential to be at its greatest it is nice to see the models hinting at this even before then    

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240 hrs on ECM... Low heights and - 6 uppers should see snow fall to even modest levels in showers. 

I'm in no means against a good NWly blast 😏

Edited by CreweCold

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Just now, CreweCold said:

240 hrs on ECM... Low heights and - 6 uppers should see snow fall to even modest levels in showers. 

Absolutely my thoughts inland areas would do quite well.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Expect ECM op to be mild outlier day 8/9/10

It's actually very close to the mean on the London graph at 8/9/10

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.d81b63169ca06d631f051b9b1f3cc7d4.png

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8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Not sure where this cold for +10 days or 12/15 days is coming from.  Its day 7!!!!!!

 

 

Hi Steve 

I said the cold is not expected until around 12-15 days away (I mean proper cold nationwide) because that’s when the ens and meto show/mention it turning cold . I know we get some Nw cold uppers but that’s not too good down here . I hope you are right and the UKMO brings the cold earlier. 🙏🏻

Cheers steve . Nice post by the way. 

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10 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Snow Cover EZ +240h total

9-km ECMWF International Surface United Kingdom Snowfall 240.png

believe that you'll believe anything!

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I think a good few days of calmness is required here as imo the bigger picture plays out and eventually may or may not show it’s hand..

If say we have not seen any hints of heights into the Greenland or Scandi vicinity by say early next week then i’d be concerned that either we have a longer delay into a possibility of a cold spell or we may simply be out of luck on this occasion. 

However 14+ days and at this juncture we are in a watch and waiting game to see what effects up top has had. We had no QTR and seasoned pros aswell as pros have now tipped a possible cold spell towards the end of the month so let’s sit back and not get hung up on every run and everyone. 

I believe we are on the verge and well in with a more than decent shot of a very cold end to January and into February and not just a few glancing cold shots or fleeting useless toothless two day snaps.

Edited by london-snow

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22 minutes ago, East801 said:

Any update on the ECM EPS yet?

Strong Greenland anomaly at the end of the run. Gets stronger as we get closer to t-360 , trough over Central Europe. 

Probably more Griceland on second viewing although 2 meter temp anomaly slightly underwhelming. 

Edited by shotski

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All for fun at this range  but the para 12z  also brings a cold zonal flow  with many areas experiencing quite extensive snowfall at 240h onwards  -8 uppers   Then this  LOL 

gfseu-2-240.png

gfseu-2-264.png

gfseu-2-288.png

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by weirpig

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GFS continues to show the pattern change to sustained cold in its far outer reaches, the date of the 21st seems to be turning point, which remains beyond the 10 day output and will not show until Friday, hence not surprised to see ECM showing no diving low from the north just yet.. it will be the weekend when this can happen.

Interesting discussion regarding evolution of current SSW and similiarities with 2006, a very long time lag to see an effect, but we ended up with a 4 week very cold period late Feb-late March, northerlies and easterlies predominated... bring forward a month earlier this time, and it would be a fair bit colder.

 

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1 hour ago, Paul said:

May I respectfully point out that Mr Bastardi is close to the mark regarding Germany for starters.....

https://www.weatherbell.com/video/the-daily-update-558?full

 

 

Edited by winterof79

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17 minutes ago, booferking said:

Yes likely in the south unfortunately but when it snows here I'll send in the pictures.🤙

 

Time to go to the regionals then 👋 

Anyway back to the models... ECM a bit underwhelming tonight, N’westerly not really what we’ve been chasing down since December. Looking for evidence on the ext ens later for the deeper cold pattern to continue as signposted on previous suites!

 

Edited by karlos1983

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We can see the trend in the ECM 500 hPa ens to starting to split the vortex chunk to our north as we get closer to the forecasted switch to cold around days 11 onwards.

This is day 10
EDH1-240.thumb.gif.27f9ef1414a99eaecf64e675b1919a47.gif

The consequence is a stronger ridge towards Greenland/Iceland so a similar trend to gefs.

Both ens suites are heading the same way but ECM Operational runs still to pick up the evolution proper as this is shown beyond it's current range of 10 days.
All being equal we should start to see an Arctic outbreak in the ECM op in the coming days.

 

 

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