Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[ICE COLD]

13 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

call me a cynic but its been 12-15 days down the line since mid Dec..so you can see why some people feel frustrated

Oh I can see why peeps are frustrated me included. But this time there is a lot more evidence pointing to cold than there has been all winter . 

METO - Tick 

ECM/Ens/EC46- Tick 

GFS/GEFS - Tick 

Dont get me wrong nothing is 100% but to have all of the above is a very good starting point . So all the frustrations will hopefully be over soon . But then again you can’t always please everyone, some will still moan .

Edited January 9, 2019 by ICE COLD
Spelling

[FetchCB]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

call me a cynic but its been 12-15 days down the line since mid Dec..so you can see why some people feel frustrated

I think since Mid December the warming of the strat was 10-15 days and then dependent on whether there was a quick response the trop would follow on afterwards. I think the far more knowledgeable on here have touted touted towards the end of Jan since then 

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah and this is January, that’s pretty cold. This anomaly in March would still be pretty cold. North UK still on for snow before next weekend despite all these talks of 12-15 days, I guess it depends where you live. 

Yes its all about location, location, location in respect of the perspective that you have, as the saying goes, one mans meat is another mans poison.

Some places on higher ground in the north may see some snow sooner than others in the south and low lying areas, that's about normal. At the end of the day the big changes are not expected until the last week of January, 24th is 15 days time.

Edited January 9, 2019 by snowray

[ICE COLD]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah and this is January, that’s pretty cold. This anomaly in March would still be pretty cold. North UK still on for snow before next weekend despite all these talks of 12-15 days, I guess it depends where you live.

5-6c under average in places, that’s close to Ice days in Jan in cold NW winds.

Just to clear the 12 -15 days up Ali , I was talking that time span for proper cold nationwide to come in . Cheers

[northwestsnow]

Not a fan of EC again ...

OK for NW Scotland and a few bits across NW hills but the uppers wont cut it for the vast majority..

Heights to our south west becoming a pain..

Hopefully my downbeat assessment is wrong and i will be happy to be corrected..

 

[Vikos]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah and this is January, that’s pretty cold. This anomaly in March would still be pretty cold. North UK still on for snow before next weekend despite all these talks of 12-15 days, I guess it depends where you live.

5-6c under average in places, that’s close to Ice days in Jan in cold NW winds

I doubt that you want to see the GFS chart for +240h

 

Edited January 9, 2019 by Vikos
grammar

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I doubt that you want like to see the GFS chart for +240h

 

240 mean chart from GEFS below - this doesn’t seem right

[Vikos]

Mine is anomaly not mean

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I doubt that you want to see the GFS chart for +240h

 

Have you got the one for T264 gfs please ? That will look like ECM I bet . 

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

240 mean chart from GEFS below - this doesn’t seem right

 

 

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I doubt that you want to see the GFS chart for +240h

 

Ties in with the op though which is what that chart is. GFS Op.

Just a warm sector 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[markw2680]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not a fan of EC again ...

OK for NW Scotland and a few bits across NW hills but the uppers wont cut it for the vast majority..

Heights to our south west becoming a pain..

Hopefully my downbeat assessment is wrong and i will be happy to be corrected..

 

Tbh I think there’s plenty of time for changes hopefully for the better as we are talking about stuff towards the end of next week. 

Im quite looking forward to some action from the north west and if it does get cold enough it’s usually a good direction for this part of the country.

think things will get a lot clearer in the next couple of days.

enjoy the up down up down up down

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

 

 

Ties in with the op though 

Yes, it just mild sector of the low shown at this timescale. 

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Have you got the one for T264 gfs please ? That will look like ECM I bet . 

[Paul_1978]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not a fan of EC again ...

OK for NW Scotland and a few bits across NW hills but the uppers wont cut it for the vast majority..

Heights to our south west becoming a pain..

Hopefully my downbeat assessment is wrong and i will be happy to be corrected..

 

EC at T+240 is still only 19th Jan, short of the touted date of 21st Jan, so not in range of the EC yet. Plus most of the GFS eye candy charts are 300 hours plus unless I’m mistaken - so for me the bigger picture is the same, decent/cold and snow won’t show within 240 hours yet. 

Exciting few days of model watching ahead I hope!

[Vikos]

I'd rather use https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010912&fh=6

over meteociel... more info + better charts + better menu

[mulzy]

23 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah and this is January, that’s pretty cold. This anomaly in March would still be pretty cold. North UK still on for snow before next weekend despite all these talks of 12-15 days, I guess it depends where you live.

5-6c under average in places, that’s close to Ice days in Jan in cold NW winds.

 

5-6C under average at 850Mb temperatures.  Because of the strong Atlantic influence, ground temperatures are only likely to be 2-3C below average at worst.

[Mike Poole]

My optimism for a significant cold spell post 22 Jan remains high as ever today.  Why:

As I posted earlier the only really strong signal for a cold outlook on the models is ~T300....i.e.beyond UKMO, beyond ICON, beyond ECM, beyond GEM.  So by virtue of that it does mean the signal is only on GFS, FV3, and the ensemble products that we have access to, and those who kindly post info from extended ECM EPS and the 46 dayer, and of course the CFS which we can all see.  However we also have access to the strat charts - modelling that will be a lot more reliable, and serve as a 'boundary condition' to our view of the op models.

Before that timescale, it's well beyond FI so it's quite possible that phantom cold synoptics could appear on any run, beyond the reliable, and before the timescale I'm talking about.  I think some are chasing these, I would let them come and go and focus on how the models deal with the 21/22 Jan period as guidance as to which way this is going to go.  Important to note it's still uncertain,70% chance still. 

But if it did happen, NH primed for it to be a prolonged significant cold spell, let's see how it all unfolds....

 

 

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, Vikos said:

I'd rather use https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019010912&fh=6

over meteociel... more info + better charts + better menu

Levi’s site is fantastic. I use it all the time in storm season! (Tropical)

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[Vikos]

I think UK has to wait a bit more...

 

Coldest day so far

 

but then... MidEU stays under cold, maybe snowcover producing cold ground air

 

[booferking]

Ecm mean better than the op happy days.

Edited January 9, 2019 by booferking

[northwestsnow]

Just now, booferking said:

Ecm mean has better than the op happy days.

Thanks mate thats re assuring..

Could do with a better det sharpish!

[Paul]

Latest blog from Nick is worth a read:

Latest On Sudden Stratospheric Warming & How It May Bring Much Colder Weather

[karlos1983]

As expected really....

hard to tell synoptically if it’s a fair representation of the members. But it does look like it.

so unless you’re on a fairly high hill in the North West, it’s not fantastic ....yet. 

That’s my non IMBY opinion 

Edited January 9, 2019 by karlos1983

[booferking]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Thanks mate thats re assuring..

Could do with a better det sharpish!

All coming along nicely Northwestern areas prime position late next week.

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks mate thats re assuring..

Could do with a better det sharpish!

This is for are region.