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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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8 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Scotland ??????? ?

Here - 

 

Sorry, not because I don’t want to post Scotland, it’s because meteociel doesn’t got that far north ?‍♂️ Take it up with them lol  ?? 

@Roger J Smith it is brutally cold in the Yukon at the moment..?

BD644D84-BDEA-4C5B-8A99-FEF421281816.thumb.jpeg.ce887fa28317d5ced727cc56ed477475.jpeg

Edited by karlos1983
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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Sorry, not because I don’t want to post Scotland, it’s because meteociel doesn’t got that far north ?‍♂️ Take it up with them lol  ?? 

you can get the graphs for any location in the world, here is how I do it

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php and to get the latitude and longitude of the location you want type it in here https://www.latlong.net/ ? ?

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7 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Extreme cold has developed in Yukon territory similar to early phases of 1947 event. It is also colder than normal in most parts of the arctic islands of northern Canada. These are good building blocks because any polar northerlies will be sucking air out of those regions to feed the flow. Given that the models are now in a catch-up mode a week after the SSW event, I think we are getting into territory where the odds of the GFS being too conservative are catching up to the recent trend of it being too aggressive (in medium range to end of 16 day runs). Therefore it's legitimate to speculate that the 12z run could verify at least verbatim, which would be a great outcome, it is modified winter from 17th to about 21st then full on winter after that with one very good snowfall scenario around the 22nd-23rd. 

Torn between excited and nervous at your inclusion of 1947..... In your opinion do you see the weather here becoming as cold as 2010 or possibly colder still, and long lasting like 1947? What would need to happen for the cold to get 'locked in' for a long period of time?

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4 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Tea leaves on form there Steve....

but... Ghandi ? … Really ?

Lol it was just a joke at the time

Ive taken the liberty of modifying the GFS ENS to show what I expect for London, the GFS eastward bias will try to push the atlantic through east around 168 hence that bump upwards - I am expecting the atlantic to be pushed west of London- hence no bump...

F949CC84-EA9C-4A32-AB9F-56F85111B7AC.thumb.jpeg.90f46198e1afcfeed2075b440e0ad501.jpeg

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31 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

By the way the CFS (yes i know) has been consistently showing a very cold setup starting with a transitory week 2 with weeks 3 & 4 very cold for much of North-western Europe including the UK.

Snip from Gav's video (a good watch):

image.thumb.png.eb888d06ab6d9cd49ff8760c23c92724.png

 

 

 

 

It is a good watch but he stresses several times in the video to keep our feet firmly on the ground which is a tad unusual for Gav as he normally gets very excited at the mere whiff of snow. The plot thickens

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3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Time for the ECM to comprehensively crush all your hopes and dreams ? 

Ecm has defo had a habit of that this season!and it wouldnt surprise me if it did it again this evening...

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Ecm has defo had a habit of that this season!and it wouldnt surprise me if it did it again this evening...

My prediction it won't do anything either way.  As I noted above the key timescale is T300 - well beyond the end of the ECM!  Best result it shows a decent direction of travel at the end, surely...

Edited by Mike Poole
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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

My prediction it won't do anything either way.  As I noted above the key timescale is T300 - well beyond the end of the ECM!  Best result it shows a direction of travel T the end, surely...

Yup defo mate totally agree!!but its pretty different to ukmo at 144 hours and not as good!!pretty different with that low exiting the states aswell!!

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ensemble NAEFS 12z link up of above average heights slightly later on which is what I was thinking from its 0z run naefsnh-0-0-336.thumb.png.86c78ad274605b69e41989221f06297c.png and some weakening of a section of the above average heights by the end but I wouldn't really class it as a downgrade probably just the fact it will be trying to firm up on dates and exact strength of blocking 1995811064_naefsnh-0-0-384(2).thumb.png.62d87eaa848f557557757b35ce2a25cf.png

ensembles GEM 12z

gensnh-0-3-384.thumb.png.f80cf11218701b06b692e82dbf5dcee7.pnggensnh-3-1-300.thumb.png.534ee64aad9c54082f580820e75768d7.png P4 gets close to a well positioned scandi high but doesn't quite do it on this run gens-4-1-336.thumb.png.0d06a44ec7554f973d2677ac7394b6d7.pnggensnh-9-3-384.thumb.png.45fd6432f30f9f34dfae13a3989fefea.png 

gens-11-1-300.thumb.png.8f1c2e911b7ccf213a2992b01b0793ed.pnggens-11-1-336.thumb.png.10cf4794cc1567633f5f30ab0d88bd8a.png952217659_gens-11-1-384(1).thumb.png.921e9554cf5ba8abf8f30cc11d2e6725.pnggensnh-17-1-360.thumb.png.ef812c01583a7c22bc3a733e422fcf18.pnggensnh-18-1-324.thumb.png.2524f0099d595cc9e4221d830a4507d9.pnggensnh-20-3-336.thumb.png.1ddccdfa308d62d19c0c2c0aca6be378.png  

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup defo mate totally agree!!but its pretty different to ukmo at 144 hours and not as good!!pretty different with that low exiting the states aswell!!

Looks similar to UKMO T144 to me, shaky:

image.thumb.jpg.67a32e6cd7b20628cbee777c3005c4b6.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.e8dab4104e2eb1adc6c5a344ae5bbd5c.jpg

Edit, mistakenly posted wrong chart, now corrected.

Edited by Mike Poole
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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

People really need to calm it down jumping the gun, the 144 chart doesn’t make a whole lot of difference as we are looking at day 8/9+ at least really and have been all along

I’m still thinking some are in with a shout next Wed/Thurs, a fair few GEFS were showing this.

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