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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Outlier at the end quite clearly 

1B12CC9B-3F0F-42DC-96DE-13E809D3110E.thumb.png.c192cbe0ff9a4091867a127c39fecfa9.png

but straddles the mean for majority 🤷‍♂️.

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00z 2032172050_18_01.1900z.thumb.png.d60552350f7b508e6d30adf45448a71a.png

12z 1598466437_18_01.1912z.thumb.png.434096cf677152abb4a2bc323c98ec76.png

Looks ok to me!

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier 🤣

Thats a relief,the mean still flatlining at -5 all the way,op an outlier.

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f23c0660c8c83c087f73ceef98c18b8d.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Just now, TomW said:

00z 2032172050_18_01.1900z.thumb.png.d60552350f7b508e6d30adf45448a71a.png

12z 1598466437_18_01.1912z.thumb.png.434096cf677152abb4a2bc323c98ec76.png

Looks ok to me!

Actually a better mean in the long term, to trend up like the 00z

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Outlier at the end quite clearly 

1B12CC9B-3F0F-42DC-96DE-13E809D3110E.thumb.png.c192cbe0ff9a4091867a127c39fecfa9.png

but straddles the mean for majority 🤷‍♂️.

Mean is about 1C warmer it seems.

However the mean does look suggestive of a NW airflow, so it won't be going mild any time, and could see some marginal events from such an airflow as well if it were to happen.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That mean looks ALOT closer to the 12z ECM operational then we would like to see!

Th biggest difference is the Azores high is back on the 12z ECM ensembles, suggesting the model is flattening the jet out again at least to some extent.

Not good news guys!

Yes unfortunately the Ecm op and its ensemble suite has mixed out the Arctic high joining the high pressure Azores that lobe pulling Sw stopping a pressure join ...jet flattening the pattern to some degree...Seeing Ecm is the highest verification model according to the stats nerves will be creeping in. However I'm still confident of heavy snow events from battleground scenarios....I want snow!

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1 minute ago, TomW said:

00z 2032172050_18_01.1900z.thumb.png.d60552350f7b508e6d30adf45448a71a.png

12z 1598466437_18_01.1912z.thumb.png.434096cf677152abb4a2bc323c98ec76.png

Looks ok to me!

So basically, we've had one from the bottom and one from the top.

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The 12z Op is at the top end of the spread on the pressure graph on the 26th

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.9e58c12f4b5dadb5cebb96a7b92e7c51.png

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thats a relief,the mean still flatlining at -5 all the way,op an outlier.

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.f23c0660c8c83c087f73ceef98c18b8d.png

A lot more spread on the milder side than on the 0z, clearly a downgrade.

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Yes unfortunately the Ecm op and its ensemble suite has mixed out the Arctic high joining the high pressure Azores that lobe pulling Sw stopping a pressure join ...jet flattening the pattern to some degree...Seeing Ecm is the highest verification model according to the stats nerves will be creeping in. However I'm still confident of heavy snow events from battleground scenarios....I want snow!

I'd be more worried if the ukmo changes.  ive noticed in the past that on the run up to a good cold spell the models flip and change right upto the last minute... for some reason it was at the start of and during weekend when it happens the most... just my opinion.

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So let's just all relax shall we. It's a simple case a cold outlier this morning and and a warm outlier this evening 

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The GFS, UKMO & GEM all look incredible and one poor EC run doesn't change that. If you take emotion out of it, you'd have your money on the majority of models being correct. I'd genuinely be amazed if everything went smoothly.

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Honestly think the ec is underdoing the ssw here. Most pointers are not that way. Honestly think the arctic and atlantic high is almost a given due to yhe slowing down of the westerly's and the amplification thats set to continue.

On phone so more detail later.

 

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