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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier ?

Thats a relief,the mean still flatlining at -5 all the way,op an outlier.

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Edited by Allseasons-si
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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Outlier at the end quite clearly 

1B12CC9B-3F0F-42DC-96DE-13E809D3110E.thumb.png.c192cbe0ff9a4091867a127c39fecfa9.png

but straddles the mean for majority ?‍♂️.

Mean is about 1C warmer it seems.

However the mean does look suggestive of a NW airflow, so it won't be going mild any time, and could see some marginal events from such an airflow as well if it were to happen.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That mean looks ALOT closer to the 12z ECM operational then we would like to see!

Th biggest difference is the Azores high is back on the 12z ECM ensembles, suggesting the model is flattening the jet out again at least to some extent.

Not good news guys!

Yes unfortunately the Ecm op and its ensemble suite has mixed out the Arctic high joining the high pressure Azores that lobe pulling Sw stopping a pressure join ...jet flattening the pattern to some degree...Seeing Ecm is the highest verification model according to the stats nerves will be creeping in. However I'm still confident of heavy snow events from battleground scenarios....I want snow!

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Yes unfortunately the Ecm op and its ensemble suite has mixed out the Arctic high joining the high pressure Azores that lobe pulling Sw stopping a pressure join ...jet flattening the pattern to some degree...Seeing Ecm is the highest verification model according to the stats nerves will be creeping in. However I'm still confident of heavy snow events from battleground scenarios....I want snow!

I'd be more worried if the ukmo changes.  ive noticed in the past that on the run up to a good cold spell the models flip and change right upto the last minute... for some reason it was at the start of and during weekend when it happens the most... just my opinion.

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Honestly think the ec is underdoing the ssw here. Most pointers are not that way. Honestly think the arctic and atlantic high is almost a given due to yhe slowing down of the westerly's and the amplification thats set to continue.

On phone so more detail later.

 

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