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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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If the ecm is right then we will need to patient and thankfully we have loads of that in here😩😩 let’s see how things look at 7.00 tomorrow morning. 

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Just now, s4lancia said:

Haven't you just given your opinion, very clearly, above this?

Yes - that at 96 - the 12z mean is worse and i stand by that -doesn't mean that by 200 there won't be shed loads of flatliners on the graph.

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It’s that connection looking like happening on the mean that’s keeping me happy right now, taking that ecm with salt and looking forward to the grit salt next week

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5 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model run. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20? It's senseless.

Just basing it on latest run, latest EC op suggests no freeze, perhaps snow chances Tue and Wed, then less cold

just so hope it is a duff run, and it's history after 00Z's

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Well I'm not going to traumatise myself further by watching the 18Z ooze out; I am going to perform a simple wee experiment instead:

I'm going to obtain two sliders, four wedges, four building blocks, a toppler and snowball; these, I will then place inside one large envelope, get some kip, and see what's still within the envelope, come tomorrow morning.

Got to be better than agonising over whether this, or that, run is going to be smelling coffee - or not?:santa-emoji:

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Still stand by the fact that its a downgrade on the 0z mean - no pronounced Easterly with frigid uppers likely based on that suite - 0z most definitely was that option on the table.

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EDE1-168.GIF?18-0

168 mean

EDE1-192.GIF?18-0

 

192

Edited by The Eagle
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The mean is ok at 144 peeps...RELAX.

EDH1-144.thumb.GIF.75b43b8eb36fee62866c01c3a5aafc0c.GIF

at 240

EDH1-240.thumb.GIF.4a8bf41b1c6ceaf7578005b66d7e695c.GIF

Edited by Allseasons-si
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ECM mean T168, looks a less strong signal to me (much more uncertainty) but the mean has gone wholesale for a collapse at the 11th hour.

image.thumb.jpg.b3fffd4ce7e6f7b0a56d0d08e1c3851e.jpg

 

Edited by Mike Poole
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The two North American models are clearly seeing less disruption of a blocking easterly from the Atlantic, and I could relate that to retrogression they have indicated over North America. Time will tell if that's the case. But the GEM is known to be the most progressive-biased model so if it can find an easterly solution, that goes against its bias. The storm leaving the eastern US and Canada on Sunday-Monday heads up towards south tip of Greenland where it splits, so much depends on whether it encounters the first stages of north-south ridge building and gets shunted northwest away from the action. 

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I don’t think we can argue that actually the mean isn’t as good as his morning. But I would prefer to wait until I see it in graph format. Still cold all the way through however.

Edited by karlos1983
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Mean looks to be following the op- still Euro low pressure signal so no disaster, but it certainly is nothing like UKMO/GFS..

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still stand by the fact that its a downgrade on the 0z mean - no pronounced Easterly with frigid uppers likely based on that suite - 0z most definitely was that option on the table.

The mean isn't out yet.

 

edit: or wasn't when you posted that 🙂 

edit 2: or maybe it was I don't know any more 😂

Edited by Liima
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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes flatter but then we see a mid atlantic ridge and a trough to the NW with polar maritime air incoming.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Mean looks to be following the op- still Euro low pressure signal so no disaster, but it certainly is nothing like UKMO/GFS..

To a degree yes...still cold though

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That mean looks ALOT closer to the 12z ECM operational then we would like to see!

Th biggest difference is the Azores high is back on the 12z ECM ensembles, suggesting the model is flattening the jet out again at least to some extent.

Not good news guys!

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Mean has clearing followed the up 168hr when compared.

EDH1-168.gif

ECH1-168 (4).gif

ECH0-168 (1).gif

EDH0-168 (1).gif

Edited by booferking
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Just now, Hull snow said:

Why can’t we ever get cold very cold and snowy in the uk with no fuss always breaks down last min 

We did 2010. ECM not ideal but still will be below average and thankfully it's lala land that's jumping about.

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Look on the plus side, the Det won’t be a cold outlier 🤣

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Regardless of how good or not the 18z GFS is nothing will be resolved tonight following that ECM run

It's supported closely by NAVGEM and somewhat though less so by ICON.

Could be a fundamental change or maybe not.

Just have to wait and see.

Edited by The Eagle
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Euro low - will ensure no mild weather for quite a while..

Last one from me til tomorrow-

Chin up peeps..

🙂

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes flatter but then we see a mid atlantic ridge and a trough to the NW with polar maritime air incoming.

Yep that's certainly what the mean is hinting at, not going to liet, that's abit of a let down compared to some of the other output tonight from the other models.

However it still could end up looking ok down the line IF we do end up getting any co-operation from the Arctic high or the PV splits properly.

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