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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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ALL ABOARD's post earlier comparing a Day12 chart, up to the development and the dawn of the beast last year, with the actual Day 0 chart 24th Feb is definitely one to study and absorb.  There'll be wibbling and wobbling for a few days yet.

Edited by Blessed Weather
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57 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

On the other hand, isn’t the GFS normally slow with the trop response due to there being fewer layers in its modelling?

I think this is academic really on the whole; low res accuracy plunges on all of the main models, rendering it all conjecture at best - so the effects of any SSW are redundant at longer range. Verification stats prove this.

One word of warning in all of this; Azores High (sorry, that's two words). I am rather surprised that some are focusing on the alignment of the jet digging in on a NW to SE flight, but ignoring the push of the AZH. It's a bit like laying out a picnic in the woods on a warm sunny day, but ignoring the wasps nest in the neighbouring tree.

So in summary, looking more promising for cold zonality in the mid term, but still a lot of doubt about stratospheric effects further up stream. 

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12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

For a start the Control is an out and outlier but may be a trend setter as it shows a stonking northerly come Easterly 

The set is ok other than that but trending colder. They are useful when a Scandi high forms and cold is definitely heading our way but as for a developing Atlantic ridge who knows?

Screenshot_20190109-135539_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190109-084851_Chrome.jpg

Being Dutch I heard it was a temporarily high in combination with snow on the 19th of januar. Sneeuwkans= chance of snow. Blue line is the control.

eps_pluim_snow_06260.png

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As we wait for the 12zs to roll out I think it's as well to remember that the PV being shot to pieces still does not guarantee those pieces falling how we need them to fall to guarantee us anything in the form of snow let alone cold.  Not even with apparently good model agreement for ten days time.  It's a time to get excited, but also to remain a little wary nonetheless....

 

Edited by Blessed Weather
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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ICON running now so hoping for a good start, did you know it has 4 times the resolution than the GFS !!

I thought it was cannon fodder? 4 times resolution is kind of a big deal!

144 onward! here we go then ICON, what you got?

image.thumb.png.9c1d0e16061c16b015bedc9f65ab6f2d.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Afternoon all ?

Have to say I was a little disappointed with some of the GFS output this morning. The 06Z OP was unremarkable and maintained a strong PV in place whereas the 06Z Control shifted it south west into Canada and allowed a mid Atlantic ridge to set up creating a very unstable and frigid looking Northerly for NW Europe.

GEM was interesting and looked better for cold while ECM wibbles and wobbles a bit but got there in the end.

The concern for me from the GFS remains the heights close to Iberia and the Med. They don't stop Northerlies per se but they keep the jet too close for comfort. I was hoping we'd see the Azores HP exiled into mid-Atlantic and again a hint at the very end of FI it might be getting there.

12Z output to come - as ever, more runs are needed.

 

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Great run, especially for the north. would be better than anything so far this winter in the next few frames. Low pressure over Iberia towards the end is a massive +, hope the other 12’s follow suit

7476B3BE-9F79-41EA-906A-537E35D5E2BC.png

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I’ll take that, cold inbound by next Thurs making touchdown by Thurs night I reckon!! 

0FA038B8-08E2-41D6-8318-F2E5CED51475.png

17th/18th showed interest on the GEFS 18z yesterday, be interesting to see if there is a window of opportunity opening here for a snow event somewhere.

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Great run, especially for the north. would be better than anything so far this winter in the next few frames. Low pressure over Iberia towards the end is a massive +, hope the other 12’s follow suit

7476B3BE-9F79-41EA-906A-537E35D5E2BC.png

Nice stuff from the ICON..

And as thought...the cold breaking down the calendar!!..

(17/20 th)..

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