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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

00z mean

1797891249_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_23_57.thumb.png.5a211b38bb834e1683d7cf3b2a816aed.png

12z mean

335158581_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_24_02.thumb.png.1f76753b2468cee7ae11dd348bbe22c1.png

@ 90hrs 

Hard to say at this stage, I'd argue the fact that the upper low is stil la trough over Iceland is bad as it means it hasn't yet come away from the main PV lobe and thus trailing lower heights further east, but then again I suspect the UKMO doesn't look all that much different at this stage.

However there does seem to be some arctic support there so swings and roundabouts again.

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

I think not looks to me like it's more of an effort to link the ridge with the Arctic high?  But I may well be wrong here, I admit that.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

It’s not quite as good as the channel of lower heights to the north west isn’t cut off earlier like the 0z suite, but it does get there.  Just looks slower to me.  I am expecting another decent EPS suite.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Thankfully this won’t be a long drawn out affair .

Given the timeframes involved at just day 4 we will know by the morning whether it’s a dodgy ECM run .

 

In truth we will probably know tonight with the 18Z runs. If they stay solid we should be fine.

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126hrs

780334849_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_31_04.thumb.png.b04bedf23e890500ec00cb8ee93f5eb3.png

Seems to be connecting between the Atlantic ridge and Arctic high.. I think we're okay..

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The euros tomorrow morning will be crucial!! 

And I don’t say that often.

if EC op backtracks and UKMO persists then we should be fine.

If tonight’s EC gathers momentum and support then it could be curtains, for the mid term anyway. Beyond this all options still available.

 

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7 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

00z mean

1797891249_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_23_57.thumb.png.5a211b38bb834e1683d7cf3b2a816aed.png

12z mean

335158581_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_24_02.thumb.png.1f76753b2468cee7ae11dd348bbe22c1.png

@ 90hrs 

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

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9 minutes ago, kold weather said:

not always.

An example:

Loolk at the GFS operational at roughly 240hrs for the south of Engtland. Then look at the eCM op for south of England. Identical 850hpa temps and probably similar groiund value temps as well at that point...

Yet synoptically they are WORLDS apart.

Trust me when yea have plus +2 +3 850s out in Ireland when they were -8 -9 850s this morning that will tell me all i need to know Atlantic driving are not.

Edited by booferking

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

126hrs

780334849_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_31_04.thumb.png.b04bedf23e890500ec00cb8ee93f5eb3.png

Seems to be connecting between the Atlantic ridge and Arctic high.. I think we're okay..

Phew, yes that does look a lot better, just another road to Rome in the mix, difficult to tell until we see the clusters.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

Feb have you not seen 126 above?Looks banging to me

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, chris55 said:

The euros tomorrow morning will be crucial!! 

And I don’t say that often.

if EC op backtracks and UKMO persists then we should be fine.

If tonight’s EC gathers momentum and support then it could be curtains, for the mid term anyway. Beyond this all options still available.

 

Indeed, maybe another 24 hours after that for the mid term. We aren't there yet - it will be cold but whether we'll see a proper cold spell is not yet clear.

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3 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

126hrs

780334849_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_31_04.thumb.png.b04bedf23e890500ec00cb8ee93f5eb3.png

Seems to be connecting between the Atlantic ridge and Arctic high.. I think we're okay..

Looks broadly similar to the GFS/UKMO at that stage,certainly different from the ECM operational.

Wonder what the control run will show, if that is also different, we can probably for now just chalk that up as a random ECM run that went wrong.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Absolutely dyer - look at the shift east of the slider on a mean at only 90 hours - gutted - absolutely gutted!

Hope this is not another overreaction from you again!?! 🙂 ...we'll find out in due course

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Feb have you not seen 126 above?Looks banging to me

I will need to see the while thing in meteociel NH format before giving my opinion - not dodging its (when have i ever backed down from a debate before?)   Just genuinely prefer meteociel.

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Before we all start get to downhearted with a less than exciting ECM. It's worth noting that the Meto medium to longer term outlook is much more in line with what the GFS snowy runs have been showing than the ECM. Perhaps mogreps and Glosea are seeing more of a GFS outcome going forwards ...... Just a thought.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will need to see the while thing in meteociel NH format before giving my opinion - not dodging its (when have i ever backed down from a debate before?)   Just genuinely prefer meteociel.

Fair enough 👍

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This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model run. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20? It's senseless.

Edited by O'Maille80

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There’s the folly of taking one good run as gospel. It’s all about trends, I don’t know how many times it has to be repeated on here for people to get it!

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I will need to see the while thing in meteociel NH format before giving my opinion - not dodging its (when have i ever backed down from a debate before?)   Just genuinely prefer meteociel.

Haven't you just given your opinion, very clearly, above this?

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1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

This is why I don't understand the point of watching every model. One bad run and people completely discount the previous 20. It's senseless.

Normally I would agree, but at this particular time, the stakes are much higher, the prize being cross model agreement and pretty much certainty on the start of the cold spell.  ECM still calls that into question after the full run was seen, so some residual uncertainty now remains and, yes, we do need to see the next runs...

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12z ECM mean isn't out yet according to Matt Hugo so not sure if those charts above will be right or not

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NAVGEM operational quite close to the ECM

navgem-0-174.png?18-18

So it certainly has support and will have support in the ECM ensembles as well.

Edited by The Eagle

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