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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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ECM doing what it usually does, going against it’s own mean. It did this last year so many times on the build up to the beast. Unless other models and means start to follow, I wouldn’t worry. 

UKMO has finally came round, that’s the important thing. I’m pretty sure it was the UKMO that first signposted the collapse of the 2012 failed easterly before the ECM that evening. 

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On Wednesday, January 16, 2019 at 21:51, icykev said:

Screenshot_2019-01-11-19-25-39-1.thumb.png.5ecf88c20313bc6f63d1368981cad4be.png

1947

Screenshot_2019-01-11-19-23-57-1.thumb.png.cdc714da44e0374bc8587b437a05ad08.png

Jma

JE192-7.GIF.6f32b9e1d434284ffc92811f2a40fa5d.thumb.gif.0f62fbe263f2aa60fe770502423f64b4.gif

What a chart. Looks ominous to me can't wait to see the mornings model outputs! How consistent are jma on model output? Which model is the most reliable in coming days?  Newbie to this but interested in epic/historical weather patterns. Which year of epic/historical cold weather pattern do you believe this could be similar to and why? Hope the charts come true. Liking the similarities between these recent charts @ six days apart 😍

h500slp.thumb.png.7f1b719152f147c0c94f59cdbbc350ee.png

Ps

What is the best model in your honest opinion? Thanks

Not far off lol!☺ jma again 👌

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Ukmo👌. . . . . Etc

144.thumb.gif.98788a3b37e3bc4a8dadbfda70ea8437.gif

😎
#becarefulwhatuwish4

144.gif

Edited by icykev
mistake
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I've done a quick paintjob to show this key difference which comes at a crucial time:

So here are the big 3:

The ECM at day 4 note the PV lobe beginning to transfer sw and then compare that with the GFS and UKMO.

We cant afford this early transfer because we need enough forcing on the low over the UK to clear that se and develop some ridging to the north of it.

ECM                                                           GFS                                                        UKMO

ECH1-96.thumb.gif.27c1c39d52bcbfab03fee913825f8858.gifgfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.9d8cad4782889d72cee0e494afeba4fe.pngUN96-21.thumb.gif.649f6d464f1960837acf112e6baee717.gif

 

 

Thanks Nick, because to some eyes these look near enough identical charts. Or at least very similar.

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By the way the temperature ensembles won't tell you much from the 12z EXM, its pretty cold at the surface until pretty much the very end (probably 240hrs I the first 'milder' day).

Instead the pressure charts may give a hint, but we may just have to look at all the ensemble runs on their own to get a better grip and then what the clusters show.

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5 models with the ECM the odd one out, all the rest looking colder/snowier/north-easterly feed

F36B2B05-6789-4F71-B786-6C69FAFD24DF.jpeg

5F9ECEBE-D732-4600-BE3F-4FF4E879C220.jpeg

71D81736-8ED2-4B06-8E34-1AE34E22FB96.jpeg

BE072AB4-9A20-4E32-A496-2220C0359AA4.jpeg

AA561F2D-44EB-4FD2-A081-6B8DADC63E6A.jpeg

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Just now, kold weather said:

By the way the temperature ensembles won't tell you much from the 12z EXM, its pretty cold at the surface until pretty much the very end (probably 240hrs I the first 'milder' day).

Instead the pressure charts may give a hint, but we may just have to look at all the ensemble runs on their own to get a better grip and then what the clusters show.

Temperature charts will tell you out west what way the mean sits believe you me.

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At the moment it is just one single ECM Op having a little wobble. We have been spoilt recently, likely to happen at some point. Let's see where it sits in the ens and even if the ens are also a bit ropey too, it is only one suite.

If the UKMO was showing the same, perhaps some grounds to be a little more concerned but that isn't the case.

Nothing will be decided today...

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Just now, Matthew. said:

5 models with the ECM the odd one out, all the rest looking colder/snowier/north-easterly feed

F36B2B05-6789-4F71-B786-6C69FAFD24DF.jpeg

5F9ECEBE-D732-4600-BE3F-4FF4E879C220.jpeg

71D81736-8ED2-4B06-8E34-1AE34E22FB96.jpeg

BE072AB4-9A20-4E32-A496-2220C0359AA4.jpeg

AA561F2D-44EB-4FD2-A081-6B8DADC63E6A.jpeg

The ecm has the dreaded hump of doom over the north sea. This stops the cold uppers in their tracks to our east. This has happened so many times in the last 15 years. Why? 

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1 minute ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Thanks Nick, because to some eyes these look near enough identical charts. Or at least very similar.

You’re welcome . Yes overall you have the same overall NH pattern but it’s just that shaky start then removes one of the foundations to get the UK low se early .

Once the low has cleared with ridge building to the ne we could better cope with the PV lobe transfer .

It’s not just that difference at T96 hrs but this really makes it an uphill struggle .

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Looking at the GEFS, nine members (biggest cluster) support the cut-off low and flatten the pattern within an envelope, depending on how well the wedge combines with the Atlantic ridge pre-spoiler:

gens_panel_dvr7.png

Another cluster is similar to the ECM 0z run. A cluster supporting the op but not great.

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It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

Not until quite close to the end, one easy to way to tell is look at the individual ensemble members, look at the arctic and look at the 500mb thickness charts, they should give a big clue as early as 72hrs whether there are issues or not.

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

True Daniel, but on graph format, probably a different story 🤞

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ECM proving as unreliable as my ex tonight..

18z GFS it is to calm the nerves...

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This mornings ECM has the PV lobe transfer about 36 hours later . 

It makes a big difference to the set up early on.

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Just now, IDO said:

Looking at the GEFS, nine members (biggest cluster) support the cut-off low and flatten the pattern within an envelope, depending on how well the wedge combines with the Atlantic ridge pre-spoiler:

gens_panel_dvr7.png

Another cluster is similar to the ECM 0z run. A cluster supporting the op but not great.

As far as the operationals go, it’s ECM/IKON/NAVGEM vs UKMO/GFS/FV3/JMA/GEM, 

Majority clusters so far only available for GEM and GEFS. For these it’s 60/40 in favour of cold for the GEM (albeit with milder clusters into low res) and 70/30 cold for GEFS. Let’s await the ENS next. 

We can and should be very excited if it’s cold you’re after - but with a dose of realism that it’s never a done deal on this island until we’re within T12, especially with Easterlies. Other options not to be discounted just yet...

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's such a subtle difference on the ECM I'm not entirely sure we're going to be able to see it on the ensemble means

If it looks similar to this at T144 are be so relived . Please be like this . 

DBB9C4A7-7D37-4A52-A5E0-2CD5123AD1A1.png

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00z mean

1797891249_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_23_57.thumb.png.5a211b38bb834e1683d7cf3b2a816aed.png

12z mean

335158581_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_24_02.thumb.png.1f76753b2468cee7ae11dd348bbe22c1.png

@ 90hrs 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Temperature charts will tell you out west what way the mean sits believe you me.

not always.

An example:

Loolk at the GFS operational at roughly 240hrs for the south of Engtland. Then look at the eCM op for south of England. Identical 850hpa temps and probably similar groiund value temps as well at that point...

Yet synoptically they are WORLDS apart.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

00z mean

1797891249_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_23_57.thumb.png.5a211b38bb834e1683d7cf3b2a816aed.png

12z mean

335158581_Screenshot2019-01-18at19_24_02.thumb.png.1f76753b2468cee7ae11dd348bbe22c1.png

@ 90hrs 

Is that looking ok or not ? 

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

I posted it hoping someone else would know 😂

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Is that looking ok or not ? 

Looks fine to me, jets digging further south. I’m not sure how much use a Mean is at 90 hrs out though to be honest 

Edited by karlos1983
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