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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

I really doubt if the EC-oper has the right scenario. This morning it's solution had support of 8% of the members. 

ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

5c41d6f40e0cc.png

This is u.k. remember,always expect the least cold option to verify then you won’t be disappointed every time.

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So as we approach D-Day the occasional ‘bump in the road’ will appear as with ECM 12z tonight. 

Not to worry folks this will always happen as mods get to grip with all the downwellings. Still a  couple more days till agreement will be reached. 

Ratings are as :

GFS 12z : 10/10

UKMO 12z : 9/10 

GEM 12z : 8.5/10

ECM 12z : 6.5/10

with huge Euro trough signal  we are well in the game and as others(far more knowledgable people) on here have said this should maintain our very cold/ snowy outlook. 

As said above you do get these bumps in road and the way things are looking there will be many more on the streets of the UK in the next few weeks!!!

MNR

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The final kicker on the ECM 12z at 240hrs...

A strong West based -ve NAO is setting up combined with a upper trough heading towards the Atlantic...probably end result will be a UK trough which at first has a cold westerly but then moderates and turns into something utterly useless, then the pattern locks in place.

Anyway, lets hope this run is utter trash.

Seb, we hit the run that had just 4.7% support from the 00z ensembles!

Edited by kold weather

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15 minutes ago, chris55 said:

192 is rubbish......

one run...one model...so not a disaster 

perhaps a good leveller for us. Shows what is possible, if not preferable.

73F344A2-DF81-4B9E-8233-66B2133D3340.thumb.png.c52d4a486d9e691ed0317069b5df3a18.png

More Beastly than Beasterly but it's only one run, I'm not panicking about this.:help::whistling:😉..keep the faith!:gathering:

 

Edited by Frosty.

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Looks grand at day 10 although its not the run i was hoping to see, as others have said, nothing nailed until +72!!

image.thumb.png.3485de0675b4c71d54cb2ada7636dfa2.png

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Oh ye of little faith...the ECM might (perish the thought) have got it all wrong?😁

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1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

What time are the ec ensembles out?

19.40 - 19.48 usually, they will be essential viewing with the expectation that the op is an outlier.

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Well if this is the biggest downgrade we can see, not doing too bad.  Imagine back two weeks what this chart would have done to the forum!

image.thumb.png.f269d04a33f8dcf9a2685128c1a4733b.png

Really nothing to worry about, as has been said many times the ECM was bound to throw out a bad one eventually.  If we're seeing this tomorrow night from all models then things may be moving the wrong way, we shall see.  The ECM mean will be interesting later.

The UKMO, GFS, GFSP and JMA all look very similar and absolutely superb.  

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This happens 9 times out of 10 when we rely on an Arctic high. It is the biggest weather tease of all time. It looks to be doing all the right things until the 3 to 4 day timeframe - then it just giggles and slinks away. 

That may well be true. But then you have to look a bit further than at just face value.

The vast majority of those 'fails' did not occur inside a 3+ week ongoing SSW. Hence why we have more than a fighting chance this time.

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Very nervy 00z ecm in the morning. Doesn't really matter what the 12z ens say as the op more often than not leads the way. Just going on past experience. 

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Bookmark that ECM, it’s bizarre isn’t it how when one anticipates continuity we see a collapse.  Let’s see how that ‘forecast’ bears out

 

BFTP

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bookmark that ECM, it’s bizarre isn’t it how when one anticipates continuity we see a collapse.  Let’s see how that ‘forecast’ bears out

 

BFTP

How many times have we seen it that just when one model jumps onboard, another decides its had enough and jumps off. Its quite uncanny really!

Mega cold for the states that run, unfortunately we are going to get shafted even past 240hrs on this run due to that strong west based -Ve NAO that is starting to form at 240hrs.

At least I suppose you'd have cold zonality by 264hrs...hehe...

Edited by kold weather

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5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What time are the ec ensembles out?

19:42-19:48 roughly 👍

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I think its a messy enough run. Look at the Isobars over Austria.. very strange. 216 frame just looks very messy and the low looks tropical or subtropical nearly.. possibly? Strange to have in the mid-atlantic at this time. I have a feeling the 0z run will be a lot different, this run just looks.. weird to me.

Edited by SleetAndSnow

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3 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Ecm has diverged from around day 5 onwards by lifting out that upstream trough whilst the ukmo/gfs keep this well defined to day 6 allowing a stronger northwards push of the Atlantic ridge. Slightly concerning that you would think the ECM should be the best bet to resolve this at this range. Still it looks a little suspect at the moment given the trough splits with the parent low deepening as it rides over the ridge.

Oh well on to the 00z suite we go with all options still on the table.

I have berated ECM for picking these features out in the past along with D10 wedges and seen them get it spot on, so just saying it is a greater possibility than if GFS stuck an upper cut-off low there. These are the notorious spoilers we see every year ruin the potential of a wintry spell.

No idea if it is correct, though ICON goes with it and would not take much for the other models to go that way especially as GFS is known for faster Atlantic, so as they slow the flow that could lead to that spoiler.

Although the ECM is seasonal it delays the potential for at least another 12 days for hardcore cold/snow and that is not what most of us want, again!

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Let’s not forget the UKMO lost the early doors signal going against ECM/GFS and just have a second look at this afternoons run!!! 

Proof is in the pudding

MNR

its also snowing here in Worcester too ☃️☃️

Edited by mother nature rocks
Winter has arrived

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Come on guys i cant see the screen for blood................only took me two hours to catch up 😫

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

How many times have we seen it that just when one model jumps onboard, another decides its had enough and jumps off. Its quite uncanny really!

Mega cold for the states that run, unfortunately we are going to get shafted even past 240hrs on this run due to that strong west based -Ve NAO that is starting to form at 240hrs.

I’m personally not concerned re a west based -ve NAO Mr AO.....I think the ECM would get there, just delaying it somewhat.  I think it’s got initial LP plunge wrong....let’s see

 BFTP

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I wouldn't worry about the ECM operational run. We'll see were it sits in the ensemble suite. At the same time it can't be ignored. 

If you are worried about it you'll just have to sleep on it until the morning.

Most models have us in a good place for a major pattern change this evening. 

 

Edited by The Eagle

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43 members online, that normally signals winter is over in here... So just looked at the ECM, ok a little wobble and yes don`t want it to wobble more but when you have other models in relative agreement it`s not really a major concern.

If all the other models flip to the ECM then fair enough but 1 iffy run (still cold) was always going to happen.

Not overly concerned with this ECM run tbh, water this down then yes.

ECM0-96.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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1 hour ago, ZK099 said:

Oh absolutely, we've seen it collapse regularly very close to the reliable. But if that low off the US behaves as we want it to, the pattern should begin in its wake. This is the key part. After that everything else should fall into place. That happens around Tuesday/Wednesday. If we can get within 72hrs of that and have a full house, I'm very confident. 

Hope so! 

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We have to hope here that the ecm has gone into one of it's attention seeking moods. This does happen lol. Let's face it, most of us will be glued (through gaps in fingers) to the 00z run in the morning. Your attention seeking has worked already ecm

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3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I’m personally not concerned re a west based -ve NAO Mr AO.....I think the ECM would get there, just delaying it somewhat.  I think it’s got initial LP plunge wrong....let’s see

 BFTP

I hope your right, I see the 12z ECM evolving into a UK trough, which may in itself have marginal snow chances, but once it moderates that pattern could become locked for at least 7-10 days, especially if the west based -ve NAO goes up and we have whatever cold aloft moderate to the wrong side of marginal and we end up with cold sleety frontal systems coming in.

I think you are right though, I'm not convinced its got that arctic pattern right, especially given the consistency so far from the ECM upto 12z and how the other big models portray it.

Nick S, yep the arctic is handled VERY differently from both the other two big nodels AND how its own operational runs have been handling it. Gotta think its at least in the synoptical minority.

Edited by kold weather

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