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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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192 is rubbish......

one run...one model...so not a disaster 

perhaps a good leveller for us. Shows what is possible, if not preferable.

73F344A2-DF81-4B9E-8233-66B2133D3340.thumb.png.c52d4a486d9e691ed0317069b5df3a18.png

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The ECM follows the ICON with that cut off low to the SW preventing the Atlantic next height rise from injecting WAA into the adjacent ridge. It pushes the pattern east as the second ridge forces the lower height flow instead:

195664437_ECM1-168(3).thumb.gif.a3ab3a9a2828c6127e5b9306aa16c95a.gif

Not as flat as the ICON with enough of a connection with the wedge to prevent the total collapse of the pattern. The trend is not good. Hopefully, it will change tomorrow but ECM is good at picking such features out.

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I might be wrong here, but i m sure Exeter mentioned the chance of a significant snow event at the weekend as the low sweeps in from the north west?

Could EC being going that way?

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all i say  things  will get very interesting after  tuesday  if the  models are right

gfs-2-90.png

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The last few posts highlight perfectly why it's not a good idea to pin hopes on each and every run.. 

Wait for the EPS. 

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It is still better than the ICON in that at least the cold air actually makes it to the UK....but I did say the Arctic and the general pattern reminded me of the ICON even back at 72hrs...

Anyway no point in overly worrying about given UKMO has come onboard, could very well be a synoptic outlier/progressive compared to the ensembles.

Anyway probably will be another attempt from the north at some point down the line from 192hrs...maybe in time for 240hrs, but more lilkely 264hrs.

Edited by kold weather

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Now we have the UKMO and GFS on board but the ECM, the initial starter of this cold, has now backed out. Lets see the ensembles before we get too worried.

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We had this as a mean at T144 this morning it was solid . 618A5EFC-5B26-46D2-920E-3DC267C10B29.thumb.png.99eacbd60a00aede6f9cfdfd82774c5e.png

then the EC op does a dirty on us . Never easy is it 🙁. Wait for the ENS and access. 

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5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

 

 

Why specifically do you think the high is going to 'drop south' then?

Genuinely looking forward to your analysis...

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief who ran over a black cat !

Satan has clearly infiltrated tonights ECM .  This all starts early on at T96 hrs with the ECM dropping a chunk of the PV sw towards Svalbard . This stops better heights developing to the ne . From there it sinks without trace .

The GFS and UKMO both don’t do that .

 

Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96, 

 

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Naughty ECM. Go sit in the corner and come back when your ready to play ball!!

2E34A067-E39A-4373-9A22-108ED4FBB038.thumb.png.74c23af8563fd2e94f909752f1c9a265.png

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image.thumb.png.ff18d9732518b508bc8710406b2b220f.png216 on ECM comes to something almost magical..but not quite. If the Jet can dig slightly more, this could still. be a cracking end to the run. 

 

It goes to show that if this is 'warmer' than most ensembles, we are in for some great cold this winter.

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216hrs probably STILL cold at the surface for at least SE quadrant of the country, though milder air certainly moving into the west. So it likely WON'T be a temperature outlier at least for London, but it hopefully will be a synoptic outlier.

The flow seems to be much more westerly in the Arctic region than any other run I've seen recently I have to say...not convinced its got this one pegged this time.

Edited by kold weather

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Too much analysis leads to paralysis!

It's a single Op run in a complex and highly unusual evolution. No NWP is ever going to be tightly consistent within the ensemble envelope and inter run variability is to be expected.

Chill...😎

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remember you need easterlies at t96 before you can they they will verify ,see it go wrong so many times before.Horrible run from ECM,compared to previous runs.We always get this when we have a big chance of an easterly.Always ys one model flips ,let’s hope it flips back to much colder next run😞

Edited by SLEETY

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ECM follows the ICON with that cut off low to the SW preventing the Atlantic next height rise from injecting WAA into the adjacent ridge. It pushes the pattern east as the second ridge forces the lower height flow instead:

195664437_ECM1-168(3).thumb.gif.a3ab3a9a2828c6127e5b9306aa16c95a.gif

Not as flat as the ICON with enough of a connection with the wedge to prevent the total collapse of the pattern. The trend is not good. Hopefully, it will change tomorrow but ECM is good at picking such features out.

Ecm has diverged from around day 5 onwards by lifting out that upstream trough whilst the ukmo/gfs keep this well defined to day 6 allowing a stronger northwards push of the Atlantic ridge. Slightly concerning that you would think the ECM should be the best bet to resolve this at this range. Still it looks a little suspect at the moment given the trough splits with the parent low deepening as it rides over the ridge.

Oh well on to the 00z suite we go with all options still on the table.

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Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96, 

 

You can clearly see if you compare the GFS and UKMO versus the ECM to the ne .

The latter pushes a chunk of the PV sw . The former don’t allowing a better aligned and stronger Arctic high to ridge sw .

FI starts tonight at day 4 ! It might have made the absolute worst of that early change  so threw fuel on the fire !

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief who ran over a black cat !

Satan has clearly infiltrated tonights ECM .  This all starts early on at T96 hrs with the ECM dropping a chunk of the PV sw towards the nw of Svalbard . This stops better heights developing to the ne . From there it sinks without trace .

The GFS and UKMO both don’t do that .

 

Nick your shortwave from way back is back!!! It's on gfs and ec

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This happens 9 times out of 10 when we rely on an Arctic high. It is the biggest weather tease of all time. It looks to be doing all the right things until the 3 to 4 day timeframe - then it just giggles and slinks away. 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

You can clearly see if you compare the GFS and UKMO versus the ECM to the ne .

The latter pushes a chunk of the PV sw . The former don’t allowing a better aligned and stronger Arctic high to ridge sw .

FI starts tonight at day 4 ! It might have made the absolute worst of that early change  so threw fuel on the fire !

Been a while since a Nick Sussex shortwave drama occurred, I thought those days were behind us!

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I really doubt if the EC-oper has the right scenario. This morning it's solution had support of 8% of the members. 

ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

5c41d6f40e0cc.png

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

remember you need easterlies at t96 before you can they they will verify ,see it go wrong so many times before.Horrible run from ECM,compared to previous runs.We always get this when we have a big chance of an easterly.Always ys one model flips ,let’s hope it flips back to much colder next run😞

I agree. West based you know what at the end just to add salt to the wounds. 

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