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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

216hrs probably STILL cold at the surface for at least SE quadrant of the country, though milder air certainly moving into the west. So it likely WON'T be a temperature outlier at least for London, but it hopefully will be a synoptic outlier.

The flow seems to be much more westerly in the Arctic region than any other run I've seen recently I have to say...not convinced its got this one pegged this time.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

Too much analysis leads to paralysis!

It's a single Op run in a complex and highly unusual evolution. No NWP is ever going to be tightly consistent within the ensemble envelope and inter run variability is to be expected.

Chill...

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

remember you need easterlies at t96 before you can they they will verify ,see it go wrong so many times before.Horrible run from ECM,compared to previous runs.We always get this when we have a big chance of an easterly.Always ys one model flips ,let’s hope it flips back to much colder next run

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ECM follows the ICON with that cut off low to the SW preventing the Atlantic next height rise from injecting WAA into the adjacent ridge. It pushes the pattern east as the second ridge forces the lower height flow instead:

195664437_ECM1-168(3).thumb.gif.a3ab3a9a2828c6127e5b9306aa16c95a.gif

Not as flat as the ICON with enough of a connection with the wedge to prevent the total collapse of the pattern. The trend is not good. Hopefully, it will change tomorrow but ECM is good at picking such features out.

Ecm has diverged from around day 5 onwards by lifting out that upstream trough whilst the ukmo/gfs keep this well defined to day 6 allowing a stronger northwards push of the Atlantic ridge. Slightly concerning that you would think the ECM should be the best bet to resolve this at this range. Still it looks a little suspect at the moment given the trough splits with the parent low deepening as it rides over the ridge.

Oh well on to the 00z suite we go with all options still on the table.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96, 

 

You can clearly see if you compare the GFS and UKMO versus the ECM to the ne .

The latter pushes a chunk of the PV sw . The former don’t allowing a better aligned and stronger Arctic high to ridge sw .

FI starts tonight at day 4 ! It might have made the absolute worst of that early change  so threw fuel on the fire !

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief who ran over a black cat !

Satan has clearly infiltrated tonights ECM .  This all starts early on at T96 hrs with the ECM dropping a chunk of the PV sw towards the nw of Svalbard . This stops better heights developing to the ne . From there it sinks without trace .

The GFS and UKMO both don’t do that .

 

Nick your shortwave from way back is back!!! It's on gfs and ec

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

This happens 9 times out of 10 when we rely on an Arctic high. It is the biggest weather tease of all time. It looks to be doing all the right things until the 3 to 4 day timeframe - then it just giggles and slinks away. 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

You can clearly see if you compare the GFS and UKMO versus the ECM to the ne .

The latter pushes a chunk of the PV sw . The former don’t allowing a better aligned and stronger Arctic high to ridge sw .

FI starts tonight at day 4 ! It might have made the absolute worst of that early change  so threw fuel on the fire !

Been a while since a Nick Sussex shortwave drama occurred, I thought those days were behind us!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

remember you need easterlies at t96 before you can they they will verify ,see it go wrong so many times before.Horrible run from ECM,compared to previous runs.We always get this when we have a big chance of an easterly.Always ys one model flips ,let’s hope it flips back to much colder next run

I agree. West based you know what at the end just to add salt to the wounds. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Just now, sebastiaan1973 said:

I really doubt if the EC-oper has the right scenario. This morning it's solution had support of 8% of the members. 

ECMOPEU12_216_1.png

5c41d6f40e0cc.png

This is u.k. remember,always expect the least cold option to verify then you won’t be disappointed every time.

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Posted
  • Location: Droitwich
  • Weather Preferences: Cold cold cold!!
  • Location: Droitwich

So as we approach D-Day the occasional ‘bump in the road’ will appear as with ECM 12z tonight. 

Not to worry folks this will always happen as mods get to grip with all the downwellings. Still a  couple more days till agreement will be reached. 

Ratings are as :

GFS 12z : 10/10

UKMO 12z : 9/10 

GEM 12z : 8.5/10

ECM 12z : 6.5/10

with huge Euro trough signal  we are well in the game and as others(far more knowledgable people) on here have said this should maintain our very cold/ snowy outlook. 

As said above you do get these bumps in road and the way things are looking there will be many more on the streets of the UK in the next few weeks!!!

MNR

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The final kicker on the ECM 12z at 240hrs...

A strong West based -ve NAO is setting up combined with a upper trough heading towards the Atlantic...probably end result will be a UK trough which at first has a cold westerly but then moderates and turns into something utterly useless, then the pattern locks in place.

Anyway, lets hope this run is utter trash.

Seb, we hit the run that had just 4.7% support from the 00z ensembles!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
15 minutes ago, chris55 said:

192 is rubbish......

one run...one model...so not a disaster 

perhaps a good leveller for us. Shows what is possible, if not preferable.

73F344A2-DF81-4B9E-8233-66B2133D3340.thumb.png.c52d4a486d9e691ed0317069b5df3a18.png

More Beastly than Beasterly but it's only one run, I'm not panicking about this.:help::whistling:..keep the faith!:gathering:

 

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh ye of little faith...the ECM might (perish the thought) have got it all wrong?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

What time are the ec ensembles out?

19.40 - 19.48 usually, they will be essential viewing with the expectation that the op is an outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well if this is the biggest downgrade we can see, not doing too bad.  Imagine back two weeks what this chart would have done to the forum!

image.thumb.png.f269d04a33f8dcf9a2685128c1a4733b.png

Really nothing to worry about, as has been said many times the ECM was bound to throw out a bad one eventually.  If we're seeing this tomorrow night from all models then things may be moving the wrong way, we shall see.  The ECM mean will be interesting later.

The UKMO, GFS, GFSP and JMA all look very similar and absolutely superb.  

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

This happens 9 times out of 10 when we rely on an Arctic high. It is the biggest weather tease of all time. It looks to be doing all the right things until the 3 to 4 day timeframe - then it just giggles and slinks away. 

That may well be true. But then you have to look a bit further than at just face value.

The vast majority of those 'fails' did not occur inside a 3+ week ongoing SSW. Hence why we have more than a fighting chance this time.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Very nervy 00z ecm in the morning. Doesn't really matter what the 12z ens say as the op more often than not leads the way. Just going on past experience. 

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Bookmark that ECM, it’s bizarre isn’t it how when one anticipates continuity we see a collapse.  Let’s see how that ‘forecast’ bears out

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Bookmark that ECM, it’s bizarre isn’t it how when one anticipates continuity we see a collapse.  Let’s see how that ‘forecast’ bears out

 

BFTP

How many times have we seen it that just when one model jumps onboard, another decides its had enough and jumps off. Its quite uncanny really!

Mega cold for the states that run, unfortunately we are going to get shafted even past 240hrs on this run due to that strong west based -Ve NAO that is starting to form at 240hrs.

At least I suppose you'd have cold zonality by 264hrs...hehe...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

What time are the ec ensembles out?

19:42-19:48 roughly

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