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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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EC slow with real cold, 168 shows a stumble, very plausible, doesn’t look like a bust by any means, just slower. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run unfolds.3D094681-5796-4E40-B81F-A8051183B924.thumb.png.820e35b4ef48ffb500204388023bf9e2.png

 

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

For me this is better than the last ECM run so far. There is noting worse than a sinking scandinavian high with deep cold passing to the south of us!

ECM1-216.gif

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM day 7 finally splits that vortex.

 

Should be "interesting"from here!

 

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.5bedd9bae6309ccd618e7e053bb9dca6.png

There's know denying it, ecm is messy, and keeps us at the very edge of the set up, with milder air never to far away from western areas, but it's one run, and stil just about delivers although not much in the way of snow in the West or on low ground, 

Thankfully it will probably look different in the morning but let's see where it is in the ensembles, but iv been burnt loads of times before so I'm holding back the champs for another 24 hrs!

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Nothing to worry about, really

ECM.thumb.gif.a51d8dc880841fad619c63fd4e872c0e.gif

Just a variation (though unfavourable one) on the theme, as long as EPS remain solid then we're good, UKMO being on board has made this ECM far less painful than it otherwise could have been. Unfortunately I have to work at 5.30am so I'll be in bed asleep before the EPS show up, I hope I don't wake up tomorrow to full cross model support for this solution.. 

2012 flashbacks!

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This is what will happen if we don't get some decent Arctic support, this ECM run was never particularly keen on that to start with even at 72hrs. Hopefully the ensemble members won't support for it, thoug hthe 850hpa and surface temps probably WON'T suggest an outlier as they are both still quite cold over the eastern part of the Uk at least at 192hrs.

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The GFS 12z looked too good to be true and no doubt it will turn out that way.

I've got a feeling that high pressure will nudge in from the south west at some point.

Still, would take a blend from the big 3 as shown today for sure. Pretty much guaranteed cold with some decent events for some in the next fortnight.

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I had a feeling the ecm would throw out a shocker tonight. Seen this scenario so many times before. The other models come into line but the one that was originally going hell for leather drops the baton at the last minute. 

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The ECM follows the ICON with that cut off low to the SW preventing the Atlantic next height rise from injecting WAA into the adjacent ridge. It pushes the pattern east as the second ridge forces the lower height flow instead:

195664437_ECM1-168(3).thumb.gif.a3ab3a9a2828c6127e5b9306aa16c95a.gif

Not as flat as the ICON with enough of a connection with the wedge to prevent the total collapse of the pattern. The trend is not good. Hopefully, it will change tomorrow but ECM is good at picking such features out.

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It is still better than the ICON in that at least the cold air actually makes it to the UK....but I did say the Arctic and the general pattern reminded me of the ICON even back at 72hrs...

Anyway no point in overly worrying about given UKMO has come onboard, could very well be a synoptic outlier/progressive compared to the ensembles.

Anyway probably will be another attempt from the north at some point down the line from 192hrs...maybe in time for 240hrs, but more lilkely 264hrs.

Edited by kold weather
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5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

 

 

Why specifically do you think the high is going to 'drop south' then?

Genuinely looking forward to your analysis...

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief who ran over a black cat !

Satan has clearly infiltrated tonights ECM .  This all starts early on at T96 hrs with the ECM dropping a chunk of the PV sw towards Svalbard . This stops better heights developing to the ne . From there it sinks without trace .

The GFS and UKMO both don’t do that .

 

Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96, 

 

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image.thumb.png.ff18d9732518b508bc8710406b2b220f.png216 on ECM comes to something almost magical..but not quite. If the Jet can dig slightly more, this could still. be a cracking end to the run. 

 

It goes to show that if this is 'warmer' than most ensembles, we are in for some great cold this winter.

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