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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

EC slow with real cold, 168 shows a stumble, very plausible, doesn’t look like a bust by any means, just slower. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run unfolds.3D094681-5796-4E40-B81F-A8051183B924.thumb.png.820e35b4ef48ffb500204388023bf9e2.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

For me this is better than the last ECM run so far. There is noting worse than a sinking scandinavian high with deep cold passing to the south of us!

ECM1-216.gif

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM day 7 finally splits that vortex.

 

Should be "interesting"from here!

 

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.5bedd9bae6309ccd618e7e053bb9dca6.png

There's know denying it, ecm is messy, and keeps us at the very edge of the set up, with milder air never to far away from western areas, but it's one run, and stil just about delivers although not much in the way of snow in the West or on low ground, 

Thankfully it will probably look different in the morning but let's see where it is in the ensembles, but iv been burnt loads of times before so I'm holding back the champs for another 24 hrs!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Nothing to worry about, really

ECM.thumb.gif.a51d8dc880841fad619c63fd4e872c0e.gif

Just a variation (though unfavourable one) on the theme, as long as EPS remain solid then we're good, UKMO being on board has made this ECM far less painful than it otherwise could have been. Unfortunately I have to work at 5.30am so I'll be in bed asleep before the EPS show up, I hope I don't wake up tomorrow to full cross model support for this solution.. 

2012 flashbacks!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

This is what will happen if we don't get some decent Arctic support, this ECM run was never particularly keen on that to start with even at 72hrs. Hopefully the ensemble members won't support for it, thoug hthe 850hpa and surface temps probably WON'T suggest an outlier as they are both still quite cold over the eastern part of the Uk at least at 192hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Y Gogarth, Great Orme, Llandudno
  • Weather Preferences: Cold snowy winter, Hot Summer
  • Location: Y Gogarth, Great Orme, Llandudno

The GFS 12z looked too good to be true and no doubt it will turn out that way.

I've got a feeling that high pressure will nudge in from the south west at some point.

Still, would take a blend from the big 3 as shown today for sure. Pretty much guaranteed cold with some decent events for some in the next fortnight.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I had a feeling the ecm would throw out a shocker tonight. Seen this scenario so many times before. The other models come into line but the one that was originally going hell for leather drops the baton at the last minute. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

192 is rubbish......

one run...one model...so not a disaster 

perhaps a good leveller for us. Shows what is possible, if not preferable.

73F344A2-DF81-4B9E-8233-66B2133D3340.thumb.png.c52d4a486d9e691ed0317069b5df3a18.png

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The ECM follows the ICON with that cut off low to the SW preventing the Atlantic next height rise from injecting WAA into the adjacent ridge. It pushes the pattern east as the second ridge forces the lower height flow instead:

195664437_ECM1-168(3).thumb.gif.a3ab3a9a2828c6127e5b9306aa16c95a.gif

Not as flat as the ICON with enough of a connection with the wedge to prevent the total collapse of the pattern. The trend is not good. Hopefully, it will change tomorrow but ECM is good at picking such features out.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

I might be wrong here, but i m sure Exeter mentioned the chance of a significant snow event at the weekend as the low sweeps in from the north west?

Could EC being going that way?

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

all i say  things  will get very interesting after  tuesday  if the  models are right

gfs-2-90.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

The last few posts highlight perfectly why it's not a good idea to pin hopes on each and every run.. 

Wait for the EPS. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

It is still better than the ICON in that at least the cold air actually makes it to the UK....but I did say the Arctic and the general pattern reminded me of the ICON even back at 72hrs...

Anyway no point in overly worrying about given UKMO has come onboard, could very well be a synoptic outlier/progressive compared to the ensembles.

Anyway probably will be another attempt from the north at some point down the line from 192hrs...maybe in time for 240hrs, but more lilkely 264hrs.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

We had this as a mean at T144 this morning it was solid . 618A5EFC-5B26-46D2-920E-3DC267C10B29.thumb.png.99eacbd60a00aede6f9cfdfd82774c5e.png

then the EC op does a dirty on us . Never easy is it . Wait for the ENS and access. 

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
5 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

 

 

Why specifically do you think the high is going to 'drop south' then?

Genuinely looking forward to your analysis...

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Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Good grief who ran over a black cat !

Satan has clearly infiltrated tonights ECM .  This all starts early on at T96 hrs with the ECM dropping a chunk of the PV sw towards Svalbard . This stops better heights developing to the ne . From there it sinks without trace .

The GFS and UKMO both don’t do that .

 

Yes but if this has picked this up then the others will follow suit later, it's not like this happened to us before, id seriously recommend people to hold back for a bit because the infamous ecm 2012 sold us down the river at t96, 

 

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Funny how in the space of day ECM goes from the form horse to 'oh this run can be ignored' and vice versa for GFS. You couldn't make it up could you. 

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image.thumb.png.ff18d9732518b508bc8710406b2b220f.png216 on ECM comes to something almost magical..but not quite. If the Jet can dig slightly more, this could still. be a cracking end to the run. 

 

It goes to show that if this is 'warmer' than most ensembles, we are in for some great cold this winter.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Naughty ECM. Go sit in the corner and come back when your ready to play ball!!

2E34A067-E39A-4373-9A22-108ED4FBB038.thumb.png.74c23af8563fd2e94f909752f1c9a265.png

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