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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Brilliant ecm!!could potentialyy be snowier than gfs funnily enough!and with a slack flow could be an absolute freezer!

Unfortunately I don't see that it's just about enough that it doesn't go all hay wire intact by 144 less cold air trying to take back the UK from the SW 😕

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

What we are omitting from the discussion around the ECM is that between 120-144 where the low is in situ just East of Aberdeen the snow gets deeper & deeper for Scotland

the only milder zones are South Ireland & the SW-

Very cold surface temps all the way down to London ..

Yeah the 12z ECM as it is is fine, just the synoptic evolution between 96-120hrs is real shaky, but luckily we are now getting close to the timeframe where there should be at least good agreement on the US storm as its a fairly straight forward evolution past its initial formation.

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A friendly reminder; If you want to have a moan and a general chat about the models, then head over to here

If you think a post shouldn't be in here, report it, don't reply to it.

Thanks. 🙂

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This ECM is nower near as good as GFS/UKMO if it is snow your after. Cold frosty days will be plentyful though.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah the 12z ECM as it is is fine, just the synoptic evolution between 96-120hrs is real shaky, but luckily we are now getting close to the timeframe where there should be at least good agreement on the US storm as its a fairly straight forward evolution past its initial formation.

Yeah

168- is probably the worst evolution but also looks the least cleanest & most muddly / messy - & rule of thumb if it looks a mess it normally is incorrect-

JMA / UKMO blend looks about right-

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12z swingometers show no change from the 06z, 25th of January looks just as likely to be cold, still some easterlies in there but more are N/NE winds.

image.thumb.png.5fd183f83d675e4d889b16ec31ab04a5.png

Then for the end of the month a bit less blocked but this is still some time away and its more general trends that matter at this point.

image.thumb.png.cccaf727aef314d4ef256f969a15a54e.png

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Kold has every right to post his excellent analysis on the models 🙂

I think EC will be OK, infact funnily enough it looks a bit better for tues..

Thanks, I always should mention that I'm simply commenting on what I see. Does NOT mean I think that is what will happen, but that doesn't always come across, especially to newer people here as I'm not exactly a 'regular' these days!

Anyway 168hrs and the upper high is setting up shop right on our doorstep, would watch for a west based -ve NAO setting up towards tne end of the run and this upper high sticking fairly close to our shores which will keep it dry and very cold.

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ECM day 7 finally splits that vortex.

 

Should be "interesting"from here!

 

edit. or could be rubbish.:oldlaugh:

 

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.5bedd9bae6309ccd618e7e053bb9dca6.png

Edited by Cloud 10

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The bad news is the ECM hangs around with that shortwave energy to the nw .

The good news is that the profile at day 7 given where the PV lobe is being pulled nw by that big USA storm means if the ECM doesn’t come up with some good later output we really have been cursed!

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There seems to be a "nick"shortwave frenzy kicking in !!!

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EC is different, but as alluded to by GP, the euro trough should ensure its all good in the hood..

image.thumb.png.4706d37dee811ad45c0ff436c11a8aea.png

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EC slow with real cold, 168 shows a stumble, very plausible, doesn’t look like a bust by any means, just slower. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the run unfolds.3D094681-5796-4E40-B81F-A8051183B924.thumb.png.820e35b4ef48ffb500204388023bf9e2.png

 

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High collapsing at 192hrs though cold air holding firm still.

definitely the worst ECM for a while though that's for sure, though the Arctic is improving at 192hrs so maybe another shot may develop around 240hrs??

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7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

For me this is better than the last ECM run so far. There is noting worse than a sinking scandinavian high with deep cold passing to the south of us!

ECM1-216.gif

I did mention this morning that the ecm didn’t look as great as yesterday’s. I posted that I thought the high would drop south and push the cold and flow in Europe. @karlos1983 above chart illustrates this.

 

 

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168 on ECM and UK is hanging on by a thread. Look to the SW for a movement of the jet..it starts to build and could still end with Atlantic blocking..

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2 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

ECM day 7 finally splits that vortex.

 

Should be "interesting"from here!

 

ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.5bedd9bae6309ccd618e7e053bb9dca6.png

There's know denying it, ecm is messy, and keeps us at the very edge of the set up, with milder air never to far away from western areas, but it's one run, and stil just about delivers although not much in the way of snow in the West or on low ground, 

Thankfully it will probably look different in the morning but let's see where it is in the ensembles, but iv been burnt loads of times before so I'm holding back the champs for another 24 hrs!

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Nothing to worry about, really

ECM.thumb.gif.a51d8dc880841fad619c63fd4e872c0e.gif

Just a variation (though unfavourable one) on the theme, as long as EPS remain solid then we're good, UKMO being on board has made this ECM far less painful than it otherwise could have been. Unfortunately I have to work at 5.30am so I'll be in bed asleep before the EPS show up, I hope I don't wake up tomorrow to full cross model support for this solution.. 

2012 flashbacks!

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I predict at 216 the ECM will form another Atlantic blocking. Looks to be building from the west again..

Not another 10 days to wait for snow..

 

 

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This is what will happen if we don't get some decent Arctic support, this ECM run was never particularly keen on that to start with even at 72hrs. Hopefully the ensemble members won't support for it, thoug hthe 850hpa and surface temps probably WON'T suggest an outlier as they are both still quite cold over the eastern part of the Uk at least at 192hrs.

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The GFS 12z looked too good to be true and no doubt it will turn out that way.

I've got a feeling that high pressure will nudge in from the south west at some point.

Still, would take a blend from the big 3 as shown today for sure. Pretty much guaranteed cold with some decent events for some in the next fortnight.

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I had a feeling the ecm would throw out a shocker tonight. Seen this scenario so many times before. The other models come into line but the one that was originally going hell for leather drops the baton at the last minute. 

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