Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

I'd be more worried if the UKMO hadn't jumped onboard.

Plus to be fair, it may still turn out ok, it MAY take another bite of the cherry though on this run.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

120hrs and still significant trail left over near Iceland and Arctic connection is gone...

Not quite as bad as the ICON for sure, but the general broad synoptics are close enough...

Think this maybe one of those duff runs you get sometimes in the hunt for cold.

It happened countless times during the BFTE last February. Relax. 

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

Indeed. But it does demonstrate that the ICON solution has legs (and not forgetting the UKMO was close).

  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

Quite, it wouldn't be surprising to see a Det run go to the opposite end of the envelope after being on the cold side for a good few runs

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

144hrs and we JUST get away with it, not the strongest connection but its there and we may have a SW attack quite early this run.

PS, even if this run went wrong I wouldn't have been too stressed for reasons I've already mentioned (aka UKMO onboard and strong ensemble support)

 

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 2
  • Sad 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, kold weather said:

I'd be more worried if the UKMO hadn't jumped onboard.

Plus to be fair, it may still turn out ok, it MAY take another bite of the cherry though on this run.

What does worry me is its baring a striking resemblance to THAT ECM failure, we seemed to had a lot of margin for error then but the 2 areas of troughing ended up engaging each other to our North when at one point there was >500 miles leeway, they are getting closer and closer and the icon is a classic eg.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just illustrates that it’s not even close to a done deal yet.

Although ECM looks ok at 144.

Edited by Djdazzle
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

144 looks grand.... look at the deep cold pool to the northeast.  Now if that comes our way....?

image.thumb.png.e06d27635b17678290bb03490c2586af.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM and 144 looks too close to comfort for me..

There really does feel a shift on the colder air to be slightly further east than forecast. This is also evident on GFS 12z earlier today.

All runs lead to turning cold..but HOW cold and HOW snowy for next week?!

We still don't know.

Edited by CSC
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, kold weather said:

144hrs and we JUST get away with it, not the strongest connection but its there and we may have a SW attack quite early this run.

Swings and roundabouts. Sometimes if the risk is high, you get a higher reward.1978 blizzard was bordering on marginal. Every cloud and all that! 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brilliant ecm!!could potentialyy be snowier than gfs funnily enough!and with a slack flow could be an absolute freezer!

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What does worry me is its baring a striking resemblance to THAT ECM failure, we seemed to had a lot of margin for error then but the 2 areas of troughing ended up engaging each other to our North when at one point there was >500 miles leeway, they are getting closer and closer and the icon is a classic eg.

Possibly, I think though the timings of the low coming from America should be pretty well nailed on now, so the big uncertainty is whether or not there is enough forcing from the far north to shove the upper low SE to the UK area.

Evidence suggests even with the weaker upper high over the Arctic on the 12z ECM it should have enough legs.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kold has every right to post his excellent analysis on the models 🙂

I think EC will be OK, infact funnily enough it looks a bit better for tues..

  • Like 8
  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

To expect to see an EC Det on the cold side of the mean every run is probably asking too much. This is still shaping up to be a good run, which should really give more confidence to all. Yeah we want it at the first bite and that still looks odds on to me, but if not, it certainly doesn’t look like we’d need to wait long for bite No.2

 

Edited by karlos1983
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Swings and roundabouts. Sometimes if the risk is high, you get a higher reward.1978 blizzard was bordering on marginal. Every cloud and all that! 

I do wish I could see what the jet was doing on that ECM run, it'd do a lot to inform what is the next step from the 12z ECM run. Not exactly convincing set-up, having been here 15 years, I've seen those go both ways.

As you say though, swing and roundabouts and it DOES make it, regardless of how close it is.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For me this is better than the last ECM run so far. There is noting worse than a sinking scandinavian high with deep cold passing to the south of us!

ECM1-216.gif

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks worryingly flat at 96 but manages to recover at t144. Hopefully that Atlantic low doesn't break through though.

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edit: All good, Scandi high is in

ECMOPEU12_168_1.png

Edited by Snowy L
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...