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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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6 minutes ago, snowice said:

Just getting ready for Ecm😃

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Me too...:santa-emoji:

Models are showing incredible potential and I think we (coldies) are on course for one hell of a ride during the second half of this winter!:cold:

hidingbehindcouch.png

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I could post charts like this all day long..hang on..that's what I've been doing:crazy:..and I have a feeling I will be posting plenty more in the coming hours, days, weeks..months😉❄️:cold:👍

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

you looked out the window @frosty???

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1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Nearly half a metre for parts of Wales and Scotland.:oldgrin:

Yep and near enough a foot for quite a large portion of W.Midlands as well. That literally is USA standards of snowfall by the way.

Anyway plenty of time for details to change so as great as it is, that's all it is for now, same with any solution the OP's bring out, colder or not.

By the way, the one ensemble run that looks like ICON at 180hrs develops a snowfall set-up and the cold does come in big time around 264hrs.

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4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

A tribute to THAT GFS

1907553169_THATGFS.thumb.gif.c563c9262115376a6be69a603c1522f6.gif

And the best post of the winter goes to...

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1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Here is that daft CMA model at +144. Seen a few mentions of it recently on here so worth a mention.

1891737961_cma144.thumb.PNG.c4cbeb1f5ef8cd1e76741b7f951da095.PNG

It has been mentioned because it nailed this pattern about 4 days ago.

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Have to say for the first time this winter it's pretty spliffing to see Great 850s finally homing in on great synoptics for the UK.they have been either side of the UK all winter"esp to the east"so I think all UK coldies deserve a break and a good spell of exceptional winter weather!!!

Edited by swfc

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ECM at 96hrs....looks a little too close to the ICON for my liking...

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34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Very snowy nxt weekend on the GFSp as that trough slips SE 

3172FA48-687F-4866-A78E-CBE5053224A1.png

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That's storm Emma depths again for South East Wales and for a good part of the uk lol. I really hope this happens again. The highways and utility weather briefs were very interesting today. The pros are sure watching this very very closely ⛄☃️🌨🌨❄

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

A bottle of Hynes XO, and a piping hot Waitrose Chilli prawn pizza in front of my fire watching through the window at the winter lockdown.

This is heading to #winterofdiscontent......will we see a 20th century great matched?  ECM imo will very much back its 00z up

 

BFTP

 

 

 

No chance. To be like the winter of discontent we would need to have an extreme left wing government! Oh, hold on a minute maybe you might yet be right 😱!

Looking good this afternoon. We are seeing most of the models agree the overall pattern now and have seen this over a few runs. Almost impossible to predict who will get hammered at this stage though.

 

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2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

It has been mentioned because it nailed this pattern about 4 days ago.

here it is at +240. Hope it hasn't got anything nailed.

1986599552_cma240.thumb.PNG.f52ab8d9eadc64a6ef4250b02be636e3.PNG

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

Over a sliding already !!!

So close though and the Arctic looks closer to the ICON than the GFS/UKMO as the Arctic high is cleved in two.

May still come through but that's squeaky bum time! Hope it does come through!

Edited by kold weather

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48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Or the week after or the week after that or the week after that ........................................................................................................................WOW!!

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120 on ECM and that looks a bit dodgey to me..Lets hope to the NW it 'curves' round the UK on 144 bringing in that cold wind from the east...

Slightly worried...

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120hrs and still significant trail left over near Iceland and Arctic connection is gone...

Not quite as bad as the ICON for sure, but the general broad synoptics are close enough...

Think this maybe one of those duff runs you get sometimes in the hunt for cold.

Edited by kold weather

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what an afternoon of model watching, im stunned. and it is snowing outside as i type, if we get close to these charts the UK will be shut down for weeks, no bread no milk but who cares we will have more than enough snow to go round. surely there cant be anymore upgrades to come can there??

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28 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Excellent charts! Taken me best part of an hour to read the posts made since 3.30pm!

Icant catch up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

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