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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

It has been mentioned because it nailed this pattern about 4 days ago.

here it is at +240. Hope it hasn't got anything nailed.

1986599552_cma240.thumb.PNG.f52ab8d9eadc64a6ef4250b02be636e3.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, swfc said:

Over a sliding already !!!

So close though and the Arctic looks closer to the ICON than the GFS/UKMO as the Arctic high is cleved in two.

May still come through but that's squeaky bum time! Hope it does come through!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
48 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Or the week after or the week after that or the week after that ........................................................................................................................WOW!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

120hrs and still significant trail left over near Iceland and Arctic connection is gone...

Not quite as bad as the ICON for sure, but the general broad synoptics are close enough...

Think this maybe one of those duff runs you get sometimes in the hunt for cold.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

what an afternoon of model watching, im stunned. and it is snowing outside as i type, if we get close to these charts the UK will be shut down for weeks, no bread no milk but who cares we will have more than enough snow to go round. surely there cant be anymore upgrades to come can there??

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
28 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Excellent charts! Taken me best part of an hour to read the posts made since 3.30pm!

Icant catch up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

I'd be more worried if the UKMO hadn't jumped onboard.

Plus to be fair, it may still turn out ok, it MAY take another bite of the cherry though on this run.

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

120hrs and still significant trail left over near Iceland and Arctic connection is gone...

Not quite as bad as the ICON for sure, but the general broad synoptics are close enough...

Think this maybe one of those duff runs you get sometimes in the hunt for cold.

It happened countless times during the BFTE last February. Relax. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

Indeed. But it does demonstrate that the ICON solution has legs (and not forgetting the UKMO was close).

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No real panic yet as long as the EPS don't follow it like sheep.

Quite, it wouldn't be surprising to see a Det run go to the opposite end of the envelope after being on the cold side for a good few runs

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

144hrs and we JUST get away with it, not the strongest connection but its there and we may have a SW attack quite early this run.

PS, even if this run went wrong I wouldn't have been too stressed for reasons I've already mentioned (aka UKMO onboard and strong ensemble support)

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, kold weather said:

I'd be more worried if the UKMO hadn't jumped onboard.

Plus to be fair, it may still turn out ok, it MAY take another bite of the cherry though on this run.

What does worry me is its baring a striking resemblance to THAT ECM failure, we seemed to had a lot of margin for error then but the 2 areas of troughing ended up engaging each other to our North when at one point there was >500 miles leeway, they are getting closer and closer and the icon is a classic eg.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

144 looks grand.... look at the deep cold pool to the northeast.  Now if that comes our way....?

image.thumb.png.e06d27635b17678290bb03490c2586af.png

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