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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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T124. Precip Chart .

They aren't gospel but nether the less.

Next Wednesday night could see heavy and disruptive snow showers in a strong

Wind

These type of charts should be illegal :drunk-emoji:

19012318_1812.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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Excellent charts! Taken me best part of an hour to read the posts made since 3.30pm!

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1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

To sum up the 12z output so far...

 

giphy.thumb.gif.2a8fd94b0f489dfd866663304ff54453.gif

 

Great to see the UKMO onboard now.👍

FAX charts might be a tad erm, interesting later !

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ECM has led with way with this cold spell. Let's hope it continues tonight... If we have a full house Saturday evening/Sunday morning it's a done deal

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Ha watch the 12z ECM now backtrack towards ICON ;)

Anyway ANOTHER LP moving into the SW at 348hrs on the para and another big helping of snow for SW/Wales and possibly into W.Midlands. Totals already around a 1ft, could easily see another 5-8 inches on that from that LP coming in at 348hrs....mad!

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2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Just getting ready for Ecm😃

D187_206_006_1200.jpg

Just hope i don’t read “and ECM is having none of it” 

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Today, some of these charts, they must be some of the greatest weather set ups for the UK I have ever seen. If anything even close to hour 238 GFS (P) was to come off for us, albeit unlikely of course, it would cause not only the country to come to a complete standstill but also this forum would absolutely explode with joy.

I cannot explain how amazing some of them charts are. Feet and feet of snow if they happen.

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1 minute ago, ZK099 said:

ECM has led with way with this cold spell. Let's hope it continues tonight... If we have a full house Saturday evening/Sunday morning it's a done deal

Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong 

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Isn't it like Feb '96? don't think there was any here, but snowfest oop norf

gfs-0-222.png?12

6 Inches - Birmingham - 96

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Just driven home from work, had a pint, picked up some things at the shop, since I posted on the UKMO T120, and it's taken 20 minutes to get through the new pages of great posts, great charts, from everyone!  This is going to be epic.  

Don't worry about the ICON.  If as has been suggested it isn't modelling the arctic high element correctly, that may be because that is a manifestation of the strat downwelling, which must now be the main driver.  I would not expect a second division model like ICON would have good resolution up in the strat.

ECM a formality tonight for me.

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Just now, khodds said:

Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong 

Oh absolutely, we've seen it collapse regularly very close to the reliable. But if that low off the US behaves as we want it to, the pattern should begin in its wake. This is the key part. After that everything else should fall into place. That happens around Tuesday/Wednesday. If we can get within 72hrs of that and have a full house, I'm very confident. 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just one more piece of weather porn for you all...here is snow depth for the 12z para...

GFSPARAUK12_360_25.thumb.png.13c40eb1ae6f0223ed54572e86109fe2.png

 

Nearly half a metre for parts of Wales and Scotland.:oldgrin:

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1 minute ago, AmershamMike said:

Just hope i don’t read “and ECM is having none of it” 

I'm more worried about my ECG!

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Split in lobe is there on ECM at 72, so I suspect this run will be game on.

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2 hours ago, winterof79 said:

UKMO V GFS 120Z 06 z

UW120-21.gif

gfs-0-120.png

Late I know but congrats you have twins

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