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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

Posted Images

T124. Precip Chart .

They aren't gospel but nether the less.

Next Wednesday night could see heavy and disruptive snow showers in a strong

Wind

These type of charts should be illegal :drunk-emoji:

19012318_1812.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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Ha watch the 12z ECM now backtrack towards ICON ;)

Anyway ANOTHER LP moving into the SW at 348hrs on the para and another big helping of snow for SW/Wales and possibly into W.Midlands. Totals already around a 1ft, could easily see another 5-8 inches on that from that LP coming in at 348hrs....mad!

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Today, some of these charts, they must be some of the greatest weather set ups for the UK I have ever seen. If anything even close to hour 238 GFS (P) was to come off for us, albeit unlikely of course, it would cause not only the country to come to a complete standstill but also this forum would absolutely explode with joy.

I cannot explain how amazing some of them charts are. Feet and feet of snow if they happen.

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1 minute ago, ZK099 said:

ECM has led with way with this cold spell. Let's hope it continues tonight... If we have a full house Saturday evening/Sunday morning it's a done deal

Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong 

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Just driven home from work, had a pint, picked up some things at the shop, since I posted on the UKMO T120, and it's taken 20 minutes to get through the new pages of great posts, great charts, from everyone!  This is going to be epic.  

Don't worry about the ICON.  If as has been suggested it isn't modelling the arctic high element correctly, that may be because that is a manifestation of the strat downwelling, which must now be the main driver.  I would not expect a second division model like ICON would have good resolution up in the strat.

ECM a formality tonight for me.

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Just now, khodds said:

Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong 

Oh absolutely, we've seen it collapse regularly very close to the reliable. But if that low off the US behaves as we want it to, the pattern should begin in its wake. This is the key part. After that everything else should fall into place. That happens around Tuesday/Wednesday. If we can get within 72hrs of that and have a full house, I'm very confident. 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just one more piece of weather porn for you all...here is snow depth for the 12z para...

GFSPARAUK12_360_25.thumb.png.13c40eb1ae6f0223ed54572e86109fe2.png

 

Nearly half a metre for parts of Wales and Scotland.:oldgrin:

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