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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Today, some of these charts, they must be some of the greatest weather set ups for the UK I have ever seen. If anything even close to hour 238 GFS (P) was to come off for us, albeit unlikely of course, it would cause not only the country to come to a complete standstill but also this forum would absolutely explode with joy.

I cannot explain how amazing some of them charts are. Feet and feet of snow if they happen.

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1 minute ago, ZK099 said:

ECM has led with way with this cold spell. Let's hope it continues tonight... If we have a full house Saturday evening/Sunday morning it's a done deal

Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong 

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Just driven home from work, had a pint, picked up some things at the shop, since I posted on the UKMO T120, and it's taken 20 minutes to get through the new pages of great posts, great charts, from everyone!  This is going to be epic.  

Don't worry about the ICON.  If as has been suggested it isn't modelling the arctic high element correctly, that may be because that is a manifestation of the strat downwelling, which must now be the main driver.  I would not expect a second division model like ICON would have good resolution up in the strat.

ECM a formality tonight for me.

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Just now, khodds said:

Don’t get me wrong, I’m loving the charts and high spirits right now but I’m erring on the side of caution, we have been here before... it’s still a long way out in weather terms. Until we are at T+24 im going to be sitting here with my hands in front of my face in case it all goes wrong 

Oh absolutely, we've seen it collapse regularly very close to the reliable. But if that low off the US behaves as we want it to, the pattern should begin in its wake. This is the key part. After that everything else should fall into place. That happens around Tuesday/Wednesday. If we can get within 72hrs of that and have a full house, I'm very confident. 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Just one more piece of weather porn for you all...here is snow depth for the 12z para...

GFSPARAUK12_360_25.thumb.png.13c40eb1ae6f0223ed54572e86109fe2.png

 

Nearly half a metre for parts of Wales and Scotland.:oldgrin:

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6 minutes ago, snowice said:

Just getting ready for Ecm?

D187_206_006_1200.jpg

Me too...:santa-emoji:

Models are showing incredible potential and I think we (coldies) are on course for one hell of a ride during the second half of this winter!:cold:

hidingbehindcouch.png

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I could post charts like this all day long..hang on..that's what I've been doing:crazy:..and I have a feeling I will be posting plenty more in the coming hours, days, weeks..months?❄️:cold:?

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

you looked out the window @frosty???

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1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

Nearly half a metre for parts of Wales and Scotland.:oldgrin:

Yep and near enough a foot for quite a large portion of W.Midlands as well. That literally is USA standards of snowfall by the way.

Anyway plenty of time for details to change so as great as it is, that's all it is for now, same with any solution the OP's bring out, colder or not.

By the way, the one ensemble run that looks like ICON at 180hrs develops a snowfall set-up and the cold does come in big time around 264hrs.

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1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

Here is that daft CMA model at +144. Seen a few mentions of it recently on here so worth a mention.

1891737961_cma144.thumb.PNG.c4cbeb1f5ef8cd1e76741b7f951da095.PNG

It has been mentioned because it nailed this pattern about 4 days ago.

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Have to say for the first time this winter it's pretty spliffing to see Great 850s finally homing in on great synoptics for the UK.they have been either side of the UK all winter"esp to the east"so I think all UK coldies deserve a break and a good spell of exceptional winter weather!!!

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34 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Very snowy nxt weekend on the GFSp as that trough slips SE 

3172FA48-687F-4866-A78E-CBE5053224A1.png

F59A8E04-52F0-454C-A327-6010DD95A7F5.png

701E8C5D-FD64-4B0A-9B68-0B1310195F52.png

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That's storm Emma depths again for South East Wales and for a good part of the uk lol. I really hope this happens again. The highways and utility weather briefs were very interesting today. The pros are sure watching this very very closely ☃️??❄

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

A bottle of Hynes XO, and a piping hot Waitrose Chilli prawn pizza in front of my fire watching through the window at the winter lockdown.

This is heading to #winterofdiscontent......will we see a 20th century great matched?  ECM imo will very much back its 00z up

 

BFTP

 

 

 

No chance. To be like the winter of discontent we would need to have an extreme left wing government! Oh, hold on a minute maybe you might yet be right ?!

Looking good this afternoon. We are seeing most of the models agree the overall pattern now and have seen this over a few runs. Almost impossible to predict who will get hammered at this stage though.

 

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