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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!!

I'm so giddy i can't even post lol..

If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot..

Carry on ramping..

ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Monday nights front should be snow now going by Ukmo!

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Outrageous set-up on the GFSP between 192-240hrs, true 80s style battleground set-up as well, probably big falls where the frontal boundary stalls out, typically it tends to be further west but we will see!

ALL paths BUT one leads to cold, ICON managed to find that one path.

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4 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Are there going to be any ICON options in there? 

What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....?

 

Definitely one that I've seen (maybe pbt 1/2?) but most avoid that pitfall, and I think that its unlikely to be that much of an issue providing the Arctic high is present.

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1 minute ago, chris55 said:

That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. 

Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart.

if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!!  Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.

That looks a very intense low pressure at 965mb...maybe overblown a touch?

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. 

Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart.

if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!!  Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.

Blimey look at Austria on those charts.

If Austria looks like this now then what about after this next week half event !!

 

1BF43AD3-438D-4E64-8A28-59C2FB66DBF2.png

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T124. Precip Chart .

They aren't gospel but nether the less.

Next Wednesday night could see heavy and disruptive snow showers in a strong

Wind

These type of charts should be illegal :drunk-emoji:

19012318_1812.gif

Edited by sorepaw1
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Ha watch the 12z ECM now backtrack towards ICON ;)

Anyway ANOTHER LP moving into the SW at 348hrs on the para and another big helping of snow for SW/Wales and possibly into W.Midlands. Totals already around a 1ft, could easily see another 5-8 inches on that from that LP coming in at 348hrs....mad!

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