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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !

I think the GFS op shows this nicely in the latter part of the run, only slight risk is it forces winds back to a more southerly direction if the low were to get big, nearly had this on 12z op which briefly did warm up the far south, but then uncle vortex helped and shunted it south.

If we can get locked then there is no easy way out for sure.

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Cold GFSP, though synoptically different than the operational run (less extreme for sure) it's still cold.

Cold pool heading towards us at 168hrs from Scandi.

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Stonking Mean 

DD1B042B-DA19-4A04-8B3B-1C6B8206D779.thumb.png.cce1f84cf0dd7ce2dab3faffb82ae2a1.png

Good mean for day 11, though there is A LOT of variety in the ensembles. Most are cold but many different types of cold.

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18 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

One of the best charts I have ever seen in 20 years of model watching. 

Has anyone blamed the Russians yet?

I don’t know but you have an amazing nom de plume

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1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

Upgrade on Tuesdays event!

gfs-2-84 (1).png

This did catch my eye on the raw GFS 12z run, the 850s looked rather chilly following on behind the trough....that ppn chart confirms. Tuesday could be interesting....and then there is the rest of the run to savour. 

Good stuff all round 🙂 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!!

I'm so giddy i can't even post lol..

If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot..

Carry on ramping..

It's brilliant, isn't it.

Long may it continue.

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GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good! 

OR NOT! They look just fine 😁

73D2B137-63C9-430D-A9A0-CF4602A369CD.thumb.gif.f45b2c1836ce28b59f2cf71c317a10e5.gif

Especially into next week, nice tight grouping 

Edited by karlos1983

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GFS P 12z by T222 showing a SIGNIFICANT snow event for the majority North England southwards as we see the low undercut.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good! 

Are there going to be any ICON options in there? 

What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....🤞

 

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Very snowy nxt weekend on the GFSp as that trough slips SE 

3172FA48-687F-4866-A78E-CBE5053224A1.png

F59A8E04-52F0-454C-A327-6010DD95A7F5.png

701E8C5D-FD64-4B0A-9B68-0B1310195F52.png

4321F391-00E9-4A55-88BE-457DB07A48F1.png

Edited by Tim Bland

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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

GFS P 12z by T222 showing a SIGNIFICANT snow event for the majority North England southwards as we see the low undercut.

miles in FI

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!!

I'm so giddy i can't even post lol..

If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot..

Carry on ramping..

ps snowing here but its not going to amount to anything, then again i'm fixated with the main course next week!!

Monday nights front should be snow now going by Ukmo!

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Outrageous set-up on the GFSP between 192-240hrs, true 80s style battleground set-up as well, probably big falls where the frontal boundary stalls out, typically it tends to be further west but we will see!

ALL paths BUT one leads to cold, ICON managed to find that one path.

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4 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

Are there going to be any ICON options in there? 

What is being modelled is the sort of cold spell where even Bomosapiens start to believe....🤞

 

Definitely one that I've seen (maybe pbt 1/2?) but most avoid that pitfall, and I think that its unlikely to be that much of an issue providing the Arctic high is present.

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1 minute ago, chris55 said:

That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. 

Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart.

if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!!  Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.

That looks a very intense low pressure at 965mb...maybe overblown a touch?

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

That is by far the most intense Euro trough/easterly combination I have seen since I started model watching back in 2006. 

Looks like an 80s vintage bbc forecast chart.

if this comes off snow showers would pack well inland...right across the UK I should think!!  Not to mention troughs and fronts embedded.

Blimey look at Austria on those charts.

If Austria looks like this now then what about after this next week half event !!

 

1BF43AD3-438D-4E64-8A28-59C2FB66DBF2.png

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