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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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much better UKMO, wednesday decent direction for here, unlike Tuesday which gives snow to Stockport, ESE through Derbyshire

 

UW120-21.GIF?18-17

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1 minute ago, Southender said:

But it’s a lala batpoo mental reversal. Unlikely hence why I said but...

ok thanks

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This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

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3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Best run of the internet era? Surely it is up there...

To be honest I've seen a lot better and 19/20 don't come off. 

Good to see though this afternoons output 🙂

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I think the 18z may end up"  put on  pub watch and a night in the cells .:aggressive:

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This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

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Reminds me of something no-one said, in Crocodile Dundee: Holy smegma, Mick - it's a bloody monster!:cold::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.b34a80e799c2fd690b8be626fb875f61.pngimage.thumb.png.88a067fcee49a7d63fc4c890898463fb.png 

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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

Agreed it looks like it blows it up too quickly but as a trend it's solid, especially as it's showing a decent Azores low now, even if I'd perfer it a touch to the SW again for us in the south

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GFS P 12z, following a similar route to its 6z run just a slightly slower evolution, very good nevertheless!

By T138, the Azores and Arctic highs have linked and we looked primed for a very cold E/NE'ly.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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The cold trend continues.hopefully it lands next week and has a good stay over the UK!!!

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21 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

gfs_nh-namindex_20190117.thumb.png.0cf916c3a18dcdad63025f9c86162314.png

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

Well there’s a chance it now has ! And the 12z  today ran away with it out of all control 😂 

if the ‘pub run’ (18z GFS) fancies similar then , it could reverse all the way to the brewery 🍻 

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GFSP following it's cousin the GFS into freezer land, high further North, everything better aligned compared with the 6z run!

Come on ECM, don't let us down now..

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GEM 12z has a good easterly shot but is forced into a mid latitude high fairly quickly. Not sure it has got the best of ideas over the Arctic though.

PS, yeah arctic doesn't have much of an imprint on the 12z GEM. At least the first shot does come off.

Edited by kold weather
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Only slight problem, not to put a downer on things but where's the easterly gone with those frigid uppers, it wa in the semi- reliable, now its a NE with less penetration of showers.

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