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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

Agreed it looks like it blows it up too quickly but as a trend it's solid, especially as it's showing a decent Azores low now, even if I'd perfer it a touch to the SW again for us in the south

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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GFS P 12z, following a similar route to its 6z run just a slightly slower evolution, very good nevertheless!

By T138, the Azores and Arctic highs have linked and we looked primed for a very cold E/NE'ly.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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21 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

gfs_nh-namindex_20190117.thumb.png.0cf916c3a18dcdad63025f9c86162314.png

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

Well there’s a chance it now has ! And the 12z  today ran away with it out of all control ? 

if the ‘pub run’ (18z GFS) fancies similar then , it could reverse all the way to the brewery ? 

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GFSP following it's cousin the GFS into freezer land, high further North, everything better aligned compared with the 6z run!

Come on ECM, don't let us down now..

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GEM 12z has a good easterly shot but is forced into a mid latitude high fairly quickly. Not sure it has got the best of ideas over the Arctic though.

PS, yeah arctic doesn't have much of an imprint on the 12z GEM. At least the first shot does come off.

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !

I think the GFS op shows this nicely in the latter part of the run, only slight risk is it forces winds back to a more southerly direction if the low were to get big, nearly had this on 12z op which briefly did warm up the far south, but then uncle vortex helped and shunted it south.

If we can get locked then there is no easy way out for sure.

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18 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

One of the best charts I have ever seen in 20 years of model watching. 

Has anyone blamed the Russians yet?

I don’t know but you have an amazing nom de plume

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1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

Upgrade on Tuesdays event!

gfs-2-84 (1).png

This did catch my eye on the raw GFS 12z run, the 850s looked rather chilly following on behind the trough....that ppn chart confirms. Tuesday could be interesting....and then there is the rest of the run to savour. 

Good stuff all round ? 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!!

I'm so giddy i can't even post lol..

If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot..

Carry on ramping..

It's brilliant, isn't it.

Long may it continue.

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GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good! 

OR NOT! They look just fine ?

73D2B137-63C9-430D-A9A0-CF4602A369CD.thumb.gif.f45b2c1836ce28b59f2cf71c317a10e5.gif

Especially into next week, nice tight grouping 

Edited by karlos1983
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