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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Singularity said:

This run seems a bit too ‘fast and hard’ with the transition to major HLB... but not a bad idea of where we could be headed by a week into Feb!

Agreed it looks like it blows it up too quickly but as a trend it's solid, especially as it's showing a decent Azores low now, even if I'd perfer it a touch to the SW again for us in the south

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

GFS P 12z, following a similar route to its 6z run just a slightly slower evolution, very good nevertheless!

By T138, the Azores and Arctic highs have linked and we looked primed for a very cold E/NE'ly.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

The cold trend continues.hopefully it lands next week and has a good stay over the UK!!!

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Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
21 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

gfs_nh-namindex_20190117.thumb.png.0cf916c3a18dcdad63025f9c86162314.png

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

Well there’s a chance it now has ! And the 12z  today ran away with it out of all control  

if the ‘pub run’ (18z GFS) fancies similar then , it could reverse all the way to the brewery  

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

GFSP following it's cousin the GFS into freezer land, high further North, everything better aligned compared with the 6z run!

Come on ECM, don't let us down now..

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GEM 12z has a good easterly shot but is forced into a mid latitude high fairly quickly. Not sure it has got the best of ideas over the Arctic though.

PS, yeah arctic doesn't have much of an imprint on the 12z GEM. At least the first shot does come off.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

Only slight problem, not to put a downer on things but where's the easterly gone with those frigid uppers, it wa in the semi- reliable, now its a NE with less penetration of showers.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

 

1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Day 9 sees GEFS mean Griceland ridge. We continue like this, and the pressure will be on for the Canadian lobe to de-camp and shift into the Atlantic. That's with a likely well entrenched cold pool across NW Europe. Go figure !

I think the GFS op shows this nicely in the latter part of the run, only slight risk is it forces winds back to a more southerly direction if the low were to get big, nearly had this on 12z op which briefly did warm up the far south, but then uncle vortex helped and shunted it south.

If we can get locked then there is no easy way out for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
18 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

One of the best charts I have ever seen in 20 years of model watching. 

Has anyone blamed the Russians yet?

I don’t know but you have an amazing nom de plume

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 hour ago, Harsh Climate said:

Upgrade on Tuesdays event!

gfs-2-84 (1).png

This did catch my eye on the raw GFS 12z run, the 850s looked rather chilly following on behind the trough....that ppn chart confirms. Tuesday could be interesting....and then there is the rest of the run to savour. 

Good stuff all round  

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Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolute delight reading this thread tonight!!

I'm so giddy i can't even post lol..

If we can get UKMO 120 down to 48 then i will believe- until then i'm going to remain cautious, we are so close to the jackpot..

Carry on ramping..

It's brilliant, isn't it.

Long may it continue.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

GEFS Not going to be as good as the 06z, but still good! 

OR NOT! They look just fine

73D2B137-63C9-430D-A9A0-CF4602A369CD.thumb.gif.f45b2c1836ce28b59f2cf71c317a10e5.gif

Especially into next week, nice tight grouping 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

GFS P 12z by T222 showing a SIGNIFICANT snow event for the majority North England southwards as we see the low undercut.

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