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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    There will be lots of variations in terms of block placement . The main thing is we get to day 6 with the low to the se over northern Italy .

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    Just now, captaincroc said:

    Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

    I would go with that, dew points should be low enough regardless.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    With the main PV lobe on the other side of the NH in FI the heights are pretty much dictating the flow for UK weather:

    gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.ba7fb45f5fa0ed85db56dd9620e21405.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

    Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

    Its 6 days away pal..

    And imo no worrys at all regards upper airs..we are in the zone fully..

    And they will hop -and jump around on microsacale notion..

    Unbeleivable outs..

    STONKING CHARTS..

    over to the ecm..for more dramatics....of the decent sort...

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Who would have thought ......

    anyway kold - I wouldn’t waste too much time on the minutiae of a gfs at day 9 ....another bus will be along shortly with sub day 5 stuff to look at !!

    Very true, but I'm quite greedy with my runs!

    Just would be a waste for us in the south which such perfect synoptics aloft to end up on the wrong side of any boundary, that's all...

    Outrageous northern blocking, its actually almost too far north for us in the south ironically!

     

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Heiggfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.16a6f36110a201e6d6280b6cfe39f50b.pnght's all the way from Siberia via Scandi to Greenland with undercutting scenario's,WHAT MORE CAN YOU WISH FOR,absolutely stunning chart.

    Southward correction would be nice ?

    To be honest just seeing the blocking signal retained this afternoon is good enough for me, detail can come later. 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
    14 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

    Just to show some perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

    UW144-7.gif

    Cold enough Stu, cold enough.

    I can't quite believe the charts that are rolling out tonight, if Steve Murrs sausage could paint, this is what it would paint.

    Quite remarkable.

    Edited by Skyraker
    I can't type coherently.
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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    What even is happening to the GFS 12z by T300, I've not seen anything like this ever. Oh my the easterlies!

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Quite a tight contrast on the 12z GFS at 240hrs by the way, 6-7C maxes in far south and rain, in S.Midlands and its 0C...

    Anyway that's just an unreal block for sure, probably overly powerful if I'm honest, but great run.

    Amazing for the north, good/great for the south bar a 24-48hr period.

    PS, the only way it could be better is if the pattern is shifted literally 150 miles south...then perfection for ALL.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Look how far south that low has gone , that is incredible ?. It may pop out the other side of the image on the next frame ?

    6D5541CB-53C5-451A-AD2F-C40016D2AB11.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge Kent
    15 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

    I can't believe we are seeing synoptics like this at only 7-8 days out!! ?

    image.thumb.png.4eefe449a296af602982e95e0bca7d7a.png

    But, 7-8 days is such a long time in the weather world!

    Too much time for spoilers and changes.

    I will be cracking out the champagne when I see these charts within 2-3 days!  ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset.
  • Location: Somerset.
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    Look at that cold pool out east ?

    51B381AB-2D8E-403D-AC46-B967F2E42D7E.thumb.png.e5320a88c298f08495d5b11e2820c4af.png

    north american breast has been drained ?

    The baby is up and running and turning into quite a beast.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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