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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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I'm a little surprised the GFS jasn't done more trough splitting with the upper low near the Azores at 192hrs.

One of the more interesting upper patterns at 192hrs I've seen for sure, could go either way in terms of how the LP evolves in the Atlantic. Small margin for an exceptional set-up, we will see if it comes off.

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I can't believe we are seeing synoptics like this at only 7-8 days out!! 😄

image.thumb.png.4eefe449a296af602982e95e0bca7d7a.png

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Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS looks a bit messy later into day 8 but the upstream pattern is similar to the earlier run.

Amplified west USA ridge and troughing eastern USA.  This is good news .

Not for my oranges from Florida 😩😩😩

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S.England is right on the boundary between the real cold air and the slightly moderated air from the bubble moving into SW Europe due to the Azores Low. Could be a close run thing as to whether the whole country gets paradise or whether its limited to more northern parts from 216hrs onwards.

My best guess though is the boundary will slip away southwards enough to re-introduce the coldest air back into the south.

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Just to show some perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Stuie W
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GFS lala land has gone full on reversal mode. Mental.

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Just now, Southender said:

GFS lala land has gone full on reversal mode. Mental.

Who would have thought ......

anyway kold - I wouldn’t waste too much time on the minutiae of a gfs at day 9 ....another bus will be along shortly with sub day 5 stuff to look at !!

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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just to show some folks the perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

UW144-7.gif

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

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image.thumb.png.1399328aedbae74820220a04c17ec732.png

The return of storm Emma, haha but with less cold uppers. On the flipside the Greenland high may keep the colder air pushing south

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There will be lots of variations in terms of block placement . The main thing is we get to day 6 with the low to the se over northern Italy .

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Just now, captaincroc said:

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

I would go with that, dew points should be low enough regardless.

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With the main PV lobe on the other side of the NH in FI the heights are pretty much dictating the flow for UK weather:

gfsnh-0-234.thumb.png.ba7fb45f5fa0ed85db56dd9620e21405.png

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4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

Its 6 days away pal..

And imo no worrys at all regards upper airs..we are in the zone fully..

And they will hop -and jump around on microsacale notion..

Unbeleivable outs..

STONKING CHARTS..

over to the ecm..for more dramatics....of the decent sort...

Edited by tight isobar
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6 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just to show some perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

UW144-7.gif

Actually looks better than I thought.

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Who would have thought ......

anyway kold - I wouldn’t waste too much time on the minutiae of a gfs at day 9 ....another bus will be along shortly with sub day 5 stuff to look at !!

Very true, but I'm quite greedy with my runs!

Just would be a waste for us in the south which such perfect synoptics aloft to end up on the wrong side of any boundary, that's all...

Outrageous northern blocking, its actually almost too far north for us in the south ironically!

 

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Heiggfsnh-0-228.thumb.png.16a6f36110a201e6d6280b6cfe39f50b.pnght's all the way from Siberia via Scandi to Greenland with undercutting scenario's,WHAT MORE CAN YOU WISH FOR,absolutely stunning chart.

Southward correction would be nice 🤐

To be honest just seeing the blocking signal retained this afternoon is good enough for me, detail can come later. 

 

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