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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Just now, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

No - It happened to be right but even the NAVGEM calls something right once in a while. The ONLY reason the ICON is popular is because it happens to roll out before any of the other models, if it rolled out at the same time/after I doubt it'd even get a mention. 

It consistently performs badly, especially when it comes to the Arctic and split flows.. both of which are what lead to the pattern we're looking for

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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3 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

It got the cold spell last Feb nailed from the beginning while all the rest were playing catch up. I don't think it's covered itself in glory since, so hopefully it just got lucky that one time.

Edited by SteveB
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3 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

Last years SSW was a completely different  beast. Was the perfect split with a QTR. I’m quite happy to say the ICON at this juncture is wrong. Possibly been found out. Just an opinion of course ?

Edited by karlos1983
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4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Massive thermal graident helping fuel it? 

This was my thinking a few days ago, that should help momentum with the cold west. 

Plus I really don't think I have seen a low that strong and big in that position before?

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1 minute ago, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

TBH I can't remember. If people feel it did then it makes sense for them tot hink it might handle this one better too but then no 2 SSW events are alike so if it was actually better it could have been a fluke.

I have been watching it closely in recent times and it can pick up things but then loses them completely for some reason. To use a technical term, It is a bit wonky IMO.

I think it gets over-egged as the new kid on the block but really it is GEM type fodda,

If it turns out to be right with this though, then it will be my go to model!

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I'm a little surprised the GFS jasn't done more trough splitting with the upper low near the Azores at 192hrs.

One of the more interesting upper patterns at 192hrs I've seen for sure, could go either way in terms of how the LP evolves in the Atlantic. Small margin for an exceptional set-up, we will see if it comes off.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

The GFS looks a bit messy later into day 8 but the upstream pattern is similar to the earlier run.

Amplified west USA ridge and troughing eastern USA.  This is good news .

Not for my oranges from Florida ???

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S.England is right on the boundary between the real cold air and the slightly moderated air from the bubble moving into SW Europe due to the Azores Low. Could be a close run thing as to whether the whole country gets paradise or whether its limited to more northern parts from 216hrs onwards.

My best guess though is the boundary will slip away southwards enough to re-introduce the coldest air back into the south.

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Just now, Southender said:

GFS lala land has gone full on reversal mode. Mental.

Who would have thought ......

anyway kold - I wouldn’t waste too much time on the minutiae of a gfs at day 9 ....another bus will be along shortly with sub day 5 stuff to look at !!

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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Just to show some folks the perspective of the UKMO chart, the 850`s are cold but maybe not as cold as some may think. 

UW144-7.gif

Thanks for this, though (experts correct me if I'm wrong here...) but wind will be coming in off the continent where the Dew Points should/would be lower anyways? So wouldn't need as low uppers for snow?

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