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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, CSC said:

Is that a snow event chance Wednesday for the UKMO 144..

Yes should be plenty of snow showers crossing the country.

Check the fax later for details.

Edited by Mucka
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Just now, kold weather said:

Great UKMO at 144hrs.

I see what your saying BA, but the game changer is that arctic high, without it and I feel it may as well gone the same way as ICON. ICON really is not picking out that arctic high at all, whilst other models are.

100% agree re the arctic high - that in itself should keep the alarms ringing !! 

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There is also a slight trail on the 12z GFS at 114hrs, but the upper ridge is literally forcing its way south and forcing the jet to arch more to the south than it is at that point, so the upper troughing and trailing shortwave is going to have to go south.

Great UKMO 144hrs.

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Well unless the GFS goes off on a tangent, then its all good and heading the same way as this mornings run and now the UKMO.

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Hello guys as a complete newbie and worse than a novice here Even I see the correlation in this scenario,however can I ask how the met office don't upgrade to this event that is on its way? They must be seeing what you guys are seeing? Is it not to cause panic or something else ?

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GEM 00z wa a cracker but 12z already more amplification in the Atlantic and a tad further West, looking good!

gemnh-0-108.png?12

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7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t tell you number of times I’ve seen cold spells forecast to be dry only to see large amounts of widespread snow and vice versa. Or the number of times rain has been predicted only for it to fall as snow or vice vesa.

Snow is very difficult to predict even at short range in this country. Pointless looking at such detail at this range. You’ll drive yourself nuts!

Just to re-iterate my earlier post. I only expected rain for me today and, low and behold, it’s snowing!

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Phenomenal by UKMO at 144. Confusing when their app has it mainly dry for a lot of the country next week..

Is this automated? The charts seen just now show a very different picture!

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Possible back-edge snow event followed a Cheshire-Gap streamer? There might even be a trough embedded in the northwesterly air-stream?

image.thumb.png.9fa45d026e3068ebfbdcbdd83fe75f05.png

 

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GFS is back onboard with a decent amount of backedge snow, it doesn't have ANY settling snow, I suspect at least on higher ground you would get a decent settling, but it would be nice to get some good backedge snow, been a while since I've seen a good amount of it.

Ed- I'm almost certain there would be some streamer activity on that intial NNW airflow.

Edited by kold weather

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Better height's into Svalbald at 120 on the gfs compared to the 06z 126.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.8797ff91c24dc7ad60105d7266dbc190.pnggfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.1b964af5d84b130cf07c18ed03a7686f.png

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG OMG OMG . The slayer model is on board 

UKMO 

531D0048-4915-4C73-8CA7-E1934DB1814D.gif

Stunning chart, deep low exactly where we want it and if the high pressure moves to Scandi we can really tap into that cold for good, fantastic stuff.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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10 minutes ago, CSC said:

Phenomenal by UKMO at 144. Confusing when their app has it mainly dry for a lot of the country next week..

Is this automated? The charts seen just now show a very different picture!

Their app doesn't use the UKMO raw output, they have a high res model which is used for the forecast (symbols) on their app and website. After 72 hours it's the MOGREPS mean. 

Edited by Sawel
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image.thumb.png.202bec994dec9f7d778bd1b262db3858.png

Nice orientation of the scandi/Arctic high there! 

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS is back onboard with a decent amount of backedge snow, it doesn't have ANY settling snow, I suspect at least on higher ground you would get a decent settling, but it would be nice to get some good backedge snow, been a while since I've seen a good amount of it.

Depending on the severity of the snow, possibly for a time due to evaporative cooling snow could lay for a time. This more so for the N/NW parts of the country. Some minimums are 0 or -1. Seeing snow at this stage is a jackpot anyway!

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gfs-0-144.png?12

GFS 144 for comparison. Beauty.

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Nothing feels normal at the moment, usually we would have the GFS fighting against the ukmo and ecm or visa versa.. This isn't the case.. It's one model that doesn't do very well in these situations against the rest... Unless the ECM goes balls up later that is 

Edited by Surrey
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T96 to T120 evolution of the Greenland-originated trough will be crucial. There is considerable room for complications here and the previous ECM run showed how things can get messy in such a complex set-up. T144 UKMO is promising, but we must remember that at that range the UKMO starts to perform poorly in comparison with the ECM

More runs needed, but we are getting very close now! There is some hope...but I would warn people from ramping just yet.

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