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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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10 minutes ago, CSC said:

Phenomenal by UKMO at 144. Confusing when their app has it mainly dry for a lot of the country next week..

Is this automated? The charts seen just now show a very different picture!

Their app doesn't use the UKMO raw output, they have a high res model which is used for the forecast (symbols) on their app and website. After 72 hours it's the MOGREPS mean. 

Edited by Sawel
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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GFS is back onboard with a decent amount of backedge snow, it doesn't have ANY settling snow, I suspect at least on higher ground you would get a decent settling, but it would be nice to get some good backedge snow, been a while since I've seen a good amount of it.

Depending on the severity of the snow, possibly for a time due to evaporative cooling snow could lay for a time. This more so for the N/NW parts of the country. Some minimums are 0 or -1. Seeing snow at this stage is a jackpot anyway!

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Nothing feels normal at the moment, usually we would have the GFS fighting against the ukmo and ecm or visa versa.. This isn't the case.. It's one model that doesn't do very well in these situations against the rest... Unless the ECM goes balls up later that is 

Edited by Surrey
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T96 to T120 evolution of the Greenland-originated trough will be crucial. There is considerable room for complications here and the previous ECM run showed how things can get messy in such a complex set-up. T144 UKMO is promising, but we must remember that at that range the UKMO starts to perform poorly in comparison with the ECM

More runs needed, but we are getting very close now! There is some hope...but I would warn people from ramping just yet.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

The UKMO a big upgrade and that storm over northern Italy is extremely rare to have that depth .

Most of Western Europe snowbound !

Massive thermal graident helping fuel it? 

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That Arctic High is the main strat imprint for our sector so it would be shocking for it to vanish or go somewhere other than just N of the UK (as the strat pattern supports that location strongly).

ICON just seems to be unable to pick up on it... anyone know how it stacks up for strat resolution? On travels so article searching ability limited. TIA! 

Edited by Singularity
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Jet starting to fragment at 156hrs, expect the low near the Azores to start to shear apart near the Azores.

The upper low isn't quite as good looking on this run over Europe, so the flow more dominated by a northerly/NNE twang, rather than the NE/E flow that eventually develops on the 06z.

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1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GEM another boom, amazing chrt pushing the ridge into Greenland.

gemnh-0-144.png?12

 

The main thing is that all the models but for the strangely overrated ICON have the cold locked in by 120 (pattern set up)

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

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The gem is similar to the ukmo with very low slp and thicknesses in the 524/528 region around day 5/5.5 as the low sinks slowly sse and pivots somewhat -  interestingly on the gem, whilst the flow is slack there is plenty of snowfall and as the flow gains strength off the North Sea, the precip tends back to rain for a short while 

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Looking at that low this could be a snowstorm for parts of Europe that will be in the history books considering how much has fallen already, if the low were abit closer it would make it perfect but apart from that is fantastic. 

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Just now, chris78 said:

Everything looks great...one thing in the back of mind though is...... didnt the ICON handle last winters SSW better than the other models, or is that an over blown claim?

Lol a load of tosh.... It was out performed in the 120hr maark by hirlam arome and arpege and they are all not used much at all unless very short term 

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Massive thermal graident helping fuel it? 

Warm air from Africa coming up against the cold air over the continent helping the low rapidly deepen.

12z GFS is looking good with that low to the west remaining on a southerly track.

image.thumb.png.01a4dbf2b024d8120e9d4f898d680755.png

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