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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Gfs looks to be on track with its 6z sister run..

Big consistancy here...

And fine margins with the icon or not...

Its getting obvious- whos winning out...

 

Edit ukmo 144 yes...big boom!!!

gfs-0-96.png

gfsnh-0-96.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Great UKMO at 144hrs.

I see what your saying BA, but the game changer is that arctic high, without it and I feel it may as well gone the same way as ICON. ICON really is not picking out that arctic high at all, whilst other models are.

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2 minutes ago, CSC said:

Is that a snow event chance Wednesday for the UKMO 144..

Yes should be plenty of snow showers crossing the country.

Check the fax later for details.

Edited by Mucka
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Just now, kold weather said:

Great UKMO at 144hrs.

I see what your saying BA, but the game changer is that arctic high, without it and I feel it may as well gone the same way as ICON. ICON really is not picking out that arctic high at all, whilst other models are.

100% agree re the arctic high - that in itself should keep the alarms ringing !! 

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There is also a slight trail on the 12z GFS at 114hrs, but the upper ridge is literally forcing its way south and forcing the jet to arch more to the south than it is at that point, so the upper troughing and trailing shortwave is going to have to go south.

Great UKMO 144hrs.

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Hello guys as a complete newbie and worse than a novice here Even I see the correlation in this scenario,however can I ask how the met office don't upgrade to this event that is on its way? They must be seeing what you guys are seeing? Is it not to cause panic or something else ?

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7 hours ago, MattStoke said:

Can’t tell you number of times I’ve seen cold spells forecast to be dry only to see large amounts of widespread snow and vice versa. Or the number of times rain has been predicted only for it to fall as snow or vice vesa.

Snow is very difficult to predict even at short range in this country. Pointless looking at such detail at this range. You’ll drive yourself nuts!

Just to re-iterate my earlier post. I only expected rain for me today and, low and behold, it’s snowing!

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GFS is back onboard with a decent amount of backedge snow, it doesn't have ANY settling snow, I suspect at least on higher ground you would get a decent settling, but it would be nice to get some good backedge snow, been a while since I've seen a good amount of it.

Ed- I'm almost certain there would be some streamer activity on that intial NNW airflow.

Edited by kold weather
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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

OMG OMG OMG . The slayer model is on board 

UKMO 

531D0048-4915-4C73-8CA7-E1934DB1814D.gif

Stunning chart, deep low exactly where we want it and if the high pressure moves to Scandi we can really tap into that cold for good, fantastic stuff.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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