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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

    T144 hows the M25 motorway  coping

    In this set up.

    Great runs all round imo.

    Bitterly cold NEE wind.

    19012406_1806.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    All the runs that DON'T make the connection end up giving a cold spell a few days later, indeed 2 of those runs end up with tasty looking channel lows (and one of them ends up with TWO!)

    Anyway ensembles are overall cracking, as Man with Bread said, there is a pretty strong signal for the Euro trough to remain ,and as long as that remains the case any disrupting troughs/lows that come from the main PV lobe in NE Canada is probably going rotate either just over us, or to the south and provide various snow opportunities.

    BEST ensembles of the year from the GFS btw.

    ps, thickness of around 512 on the para at 300hrs for the Midlands, anything coming out of that sky will be snow for sure and countrywide depths between 10-20cms...

     

     

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)

    GFS Para happy to join the ice party. Interest throughout the run but hard not to share this little beauty, even though it's far into FI.

    gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.b5c4900d2246d3f50134aac39a0be173.png

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  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    18 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

    Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th.

    Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.

    GP, I'm watching closely because we could ge the holy grail, a successful East/North/east transition without any mild sectors. Its very rare and does need everything in balance, a few ensemble members do manage it.

    Of course there is also the real threat as you suggest of a breakdown from the west, which probably would get repelled back the way it came.

    Supernova, the GFS para has a lot of snow on its run, its a fair bit snowier than the GFS 06z op!

    Edited by kold weather
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  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    All the runs that DON'T make the connection end up giving a cold spell a few days later, indeed 2 of those runs end up with tasty looking channel lows (and one of them ends up with TWO!)

    Anyway ensembles are overall cracking, as Man with Bread said, there is a pretty strong signal for the Euro trough to remain ,and as long as that remains the case any disrupting troughs/lows that come from the main PV lobe in NE Canada is probably going rotate either just over us, or to the south and provide various snow opportunities.

    BEST ensembles of the year from the GFS btw.

    ps, thickness of around 512 on the para at 300hrs for the Midlands, anything coming out of that sky will be snow for sure and countrywide depths between 10-20cms...

     

     

    Lets hope we don't get sandwiched in any mild sectors for too long.

    In all seriousness, best model eye candy since 2010 for me. Last year was good but this evolution has been amazing.

    Still a nagging concern is the tendency for output to downgrade slightly in the last 72-96 hours (snow events tonight and Tue have become more marginal in the last day or so). However the pattern at 96-144 is severe enough to take some marginal knocks so shouldn't be a problem unless there is a major change to upset the apple cart.

     

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  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Anything newsworthy, so long as it's not in the Daily Express
  • Location: Waddingham, Lincolnshire. (9m asl)
    2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    GP, I'm watching closely because we could ge the holy grail, a successful East/North/east transition without any mild sectors. Its very rare and does need everything in balance, a few ensemble members do manage it.

    Of course there is also the real threat as you suggest of a breakdown from the west, which probably would get repelled back the way it came.

    Supernova, the GFS para has a lot of snow on its run, its a fair bit snowier than the GFS 06z op!

    That's not something you get to say very often about a run like that! Exciting times.

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  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Well I only got up to day 8 on the GFS 6z run and then had to do some work ?. So I’ve just ran through from day 8 and it’s another stonker of a run . Very cold and snowy throughout. Unbelievable.

    ps just seen GP posts as well. This is looking incredible. ?

    85F7A428-EE22-4A53-929A-7F386AD8528D.png

    FE16C4FF-EB42-4C48-AAAA-98B876F752A5.png

    C7E94ABC-5B4A-4F6B-8AC5-07ADC2C47C8D.png

    2355AA76-5C68-4714-BE7D-C69B5435F7FD.png

    E1CAFB0B-8EC9-4704-8E2F-EF9E03BD7FE7.png

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  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

    Crazy amounts of snow showing on the GFS para

    anim_hft2333.thumb.gif.240624f1e30a353fa5cbfe200715c0fb.gif

    The next few weeks are going to be fun for us cold lovers with the possibility of memorable snow events for many of us. Hopefully the councils are prepared as some areas could come to standstill if charts like above were to come off.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    2 hours ago, TEITS said:

    Some classic old school charts appearing. Makes me want to listen to some Human League records!

    GFSOPEU06_210_1.png

    Yep! Don’t You Want Me Baby was number 1 in December 1981!

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    Posted
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall obviously.
  • Location: Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

    https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/01/europe-on-long-term-jan-19th.html
    An extract from my latest long range outlook below. 
    "My overall view is that from the last week of Jan to the second week of Feb, will feature major snow risks for the Southern Alps and the UK. There will be plenty of cold around, but not so much snow for the Northern Alps. We should see a neutralisation in the later stages of the month."

    The outlook includes my thoughts on the GWO (click image below), and my thoughts on the latest EPS 46 run.

    IMG_6241.thumb.PNG.96eb6f7c8493f5e0e51bf5c2607b9d07.PNG

     

     

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  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Djdazzle said:

    Yep! Don’t You Want Me Baby was number 1 in December 1981!

    They don't sound like a pop group do they, sound like more of a left wing pressure group.

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  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW BABY
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
    11 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

    GEFS 6z is a bit of a downgrade compared to the 0z for upper air temps. Less members sustaining in the -10 to -15 range. 12z will probably upgrade again no doubt!

    I think we're in a rare situation where downgrades aren't really downgrades. I know technically you're right but it sounds worst than it is. With the incredible charts we're seeing atm, there's very little room for upgrades but plenty in the opposite direction. 

    I love when there's room for error because even a watered down version would deliver the goods.

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  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    13 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

    GEFS 6z is a bit of a downgrade compared to the 0z for upper air temps. Less members sustaining in the -10 to -15 range. 12z will probably upgrade again no doubt!

    I haven’t had a chance to look at them all but upper air temps aren’t the best guide to snow chances if you have a set up of Atlantic trough disruption meeting embedded cold at the surface.

    Snow can easily fall at just below freezing at the 850 level if you have low dew points from mainland Europe being pulled nw to meet any precip .

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    just a reality check .... it might be worth thinking about some of the decent cold spells of the past decade and then viewing the archived runs that were being thrown out for the week two period back then. It’s very unusual to see the verification live up to the levels of deep cold etc that were being shown 9/13 days ahead .....what is important to see is the potential longevity of the pattern .... the more bites at a potential snow event we get, the more chances we have of one sticking ..... especially once we have surface cold in ...

    onto the 12z’s ....... don’t expect to see anything in particular ......just enjoy the ride for the time being ....

    Interestingly December 2010 actually kept upgrading and extending the cold spell, so lets hope this keeps up that idea. The Feb 18 cold shot also got increasingly severe closer to the time (though did ease just a touch as we drew down to 48hrs out, but it was way lower than what the charts a week ago suggested).

    However I know what you mean, typically it does weaken the cold flow as we draw closer, especially once we are out into FI.

    Nick, your right, with fairly low thicknesses on most of those ensembles plus contientnal flow of some type should mean we shouldn't need 850hpa below -3c.

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    February looking cold as well - not just an isolated run either - this is about the time you want them on board as well.

    image.thumb.png.11070f56c769dba2ae2412a7dec130d7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, Very Warm, Warm! Sunshine & TS
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Beware, remember the great model backtrack from a couple of winters ago when at day 5/6C there were -10C - -15C uppers banging on the door for a sudden seismic and almost instant flip in the models and we ended up with mild westerlies? Not saying that will happen but with so many inter/intra model variances there's still a lot of up and downs to through yet. 

    Being in pretty much the least snowiest place in the country I'm trying not to look at the precip charts, down here we are sheltered by a long land track from any direction north or west/east if that makes sense and have a warm body of water directly south such inevitably quick raises wet bulb temps with a flow from the sea. Hopefully as we get closes to the middle and end of next week some of little polar lows will start churning westwards which I would have thought is good possibility or better still a proper channel low.

    I'm not a big cold or snow fan but if got to happen this is the best time as most optimal for cold and snow so it can go hard or go home as far as im concerned!! 

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  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    8 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    I still think if it happens next week it is a bonus, the fun and games will be in February..

    Don't think so. For what seems like ages we have been looking at around 21st January for the change to cold. Anything before that is a bonus, but after is now coming into the realms of the expected. 

    All signals are now green, with the exception of a single amber light for NE US storm over the weekend, and even if that amber light is correct, it is a slowdown in the charge towards cold rather than a turnaround. 

    The background signals have been signposting this for some time, and now we are on the cusp. I'm looking forward to @nick sussex musings on irritating shortwaves that may be the difference between heavy snow and slightly less snow rather than the more normal knife-edge situations we usually find ourselves in.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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