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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, hopefully, can a scandi ridge persist for all that long though? you only need one of those lows to not draw an undercut and its game over.

Yeah, I've seen them in the archive charts lock solid for 3-4 weeks before, especially Feb 86 and Feb 47 are good example where the pattern utterly locked.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

So the out of favour mostly slayed GFS is now our friend? To be honest it hasn`t really been wrong up until now, could be the form horse... ironic I know.

Not quite, ECM picked up on it first then the GFS came chasing behind it with the ICON and UKMO doing something slightly different.. 

 

Correct me if im wrong people

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Actually more like 06z control, and imagine that being undercut. Repeat: Euro trough going nowhere (and I;m taking more February here).

Rather decent prognosis then to say the least.!!!!

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9 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

So the out of favour mostly slayed GFS is now our friend? To be honest it hasn`t really been wrong up until now, could be the form horse... ironic I know.

Its only rubbish when it shows zonality. On this occasion though it does look like its a bit later to the party. Interesting that the GFSP seems a bit later to the party than the old version though. 

People forget with GFS it does get some 'wins' as well. I recall it being first to bring the low up from the south to end the March cold spell. 

Anyway, cold now looks probable, snow looks very possible and we wait to see how it plays out. 4-5 weeks of exciting winter weather followed by a nice warm UK high later in March would be perfect!  

 

Edited by Jason M
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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

Not quite, ECM picked up on it first then the GFS came chasing behind it with the ICON and UKMO doing something slightly different.. 

 

Correct me if im wrong people

Ukmo can’t really be ahead as it only goes to day 6!

ec has been the clear leader of the route forward (at the moment). And the gfs has been better than the para at picking up this pattern !! 

ICON has been poor on resolving the split flow in this instance .......

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6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Absolutely. For what it's worth I spot just 3 fails in those GEFS for the initial linkup... including the op and control that's a 3 in 22 chance of a more difficult route forward. I like those odds ?.

Worth noting Singularity that two of those three that don't make it, 2 of them STILL produce a cold/severe spell of weather towards the start of Feb. Indeed one creates a beast followed by a channel low forming and spinning into the channel like Dec 2010.

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Just for entertainment sake, at least 5 of the ensembles would go on to produce a set-up capable of producing a foot of snow somewhere at one point in the run, and I'm probably being conservative with that number of 5...

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Meanwhile back in the GFSP land...

The block is forced back a little but holds firm just to the east of the UK, atlantic lows try to push in BUT you can probably guess what happens.

Wales/SW probably good for a 1ft on this run, and then we are back to northern blocking and cold diving south.

The PARA is an outstanding run in its own right and in most years would be getting praised as run of the year, that shows how good the GFS/ECM charts have been at times this week!

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All the runs that DON'T make the connection end up giving a cold spell a few days later, indeed 2 of those runs end up with tasty looking channel lows (and one of them ends up with TWO!)

Anyway ensembles are overall cracking, as Man with Bread said, there is a pretty strong signal for the Euro trough to remain ,and as long as that remains the case any disrupting troughs/lows that come from the main PV lobe in NE Canada is probably going rotate either just over us, or to the south and provide various snow opportunities.

BEST ensembles of the year from the GFS btw.

ps, thickness of around 512 on the para at 300hrs for the Midlands, anything coming out of that sky will be snow for sure and countrywide depths between 10-20cms...

 

 

Edited by kold weather
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18 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Key thing to watch over the coming days is whether that mean T850 can get to -10 or below around the 27th/28th.

Parallel 06z sort of painting a picture of what is the most likely trend towards early Feb.

GP, I'm watching closely because we could ge the holy grail, a successful East/North/east transition without any mild sectors. Its very rare and does need everything in balance, a few ensemble members do manage it.

Of course there is also the real threat as you suggest of a breakdown from the west, which probably would get repelled back the way it came.

Supernova, the GFS para has a lot of snow on its run, its a fair bit snowier than the GFS 06z op!

Edited by kold weather
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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

All the runs that DON'T make the connection end up giving a cold spell a few days later, indeed 2 of those runs end up with tasty looking channel lows (and one of them ends up with TWO!)

Anyway ensembles are overall cracking, as Man with Bread said, there is a pretty strong signal for the Euro trough to remain ,and as long as that remains the case any disrupting troughs/lows that come from the main PV lobe in NE Canada is probably going rotate either just over us, or to the south and provide various snow opportunities.

BEST ensembles of the year from the GFS btw.

ps, thickness of around 512 on the para at 300hrs for the Midlands, anything coming out of that sky will be snow for sure and countrywide depths between 10-20cms...

 

 

Lets hope we don't get sandwiched in any mild sectors for too long.

In all seriousness, best model eye candy since 2010 for me. Last year was good but this evolution has been amazing.

Still a nagging concern is the tendency for output to downgrade slightly in the last 72-96 hours (snow events tonight and Tue have become more marginal in the last day or so). However the pattern at 96-144 is severe enough to take some marginal knocks so shouldn't be a problem unless there is a major change to upset the apple cart.

 

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

GP, I'm watching closely because we could ge the holy grail, a successful East/North/east transition without any mild sectors. Its very rare and does need everything in balance, a few ensemble members do manage it.

Of course there is also the real threat as you suggest of a breakdown from the west, which probably would get repelled back the way it came.

Supernova, the GFS para has a lot of snow on its run, its a fair bit snowier than the GFS 06z op!

That's not something you get to say very often about a run like that! Exciting times.

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Well I only got up to day 8 on the GFS 6z run and then had to do some work ?. So I’ve just ran through from day 8 and it’s another stonker of a run . Very cold and snowy throughout. Unbelievable.

ps just seen GP posts as well. This is looking incredible. ?

85F7A428-EE22-4A53-929A-7F386AD8528D.png

FE16C4FF-EB42-4C48-AAAA-98B876F752A5.png

C7E94ABC-5B4A-4F6B-8AC5-07ADC2C47C8D.png

2355AA76-5C68-4714-BE7D-C69B5435F7FD.png

E1CAFB0B-8EC9-4704-8E2F-EF9E03BD7FE7.png

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Crazy amounts of snow showing on the GFS para

anim_hft2333.thumb.gif.240624f1e30a353fa5cbfe200715c0fb.gif

The next few weeks are going to be fun for us cold lovers with the possibility of memorable snow events for many of us. Hopefully the councils are prepared as some areas could come to standstill if charts like above were to come off.

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