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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Typical - the eps have upgraded last 2 runs - now the GEFS have downgraded (only slightly) the last 3.

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Surprise surprise the para has froze at T234 🤨

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I wouldn’t be expecting the proper cold (ignoring cold zonality which I know some are very content with) until after 21/1 ..... could get in three days earlier if we are lucky with the amplification 

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Surprise surprise the para has froze at T234 🤨

Yeptakes an eternity to come out

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t be expecting the proper cold (ignoring cold zonality which I know some are very content with) until after 21/1 ..... could get in three days earlier if we are lucky with the amplification 

Blue, we know very well in the North west cold zonality doesn't deliver unless you have decent altitude- the Irish sea temps are our nemesis- and i saw them posted recently..

caveat being we need really quite cold uppers to negate the effects of the sea-

Edited by northwestsnow

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Posted (edited)

GFS P has a very deep low heading towards Iceland at t234 where it has now frozen

gfs-0-234.thumb.png.6093da401ce34d5f2a2b4dab63947d3a.pnggfs-1-234.thumb.png.1267c5e1fcafbe4dafa2893d993c57d8.png

Ignore my last post I looked at the normal GFS 🤦‍♂️

Edited by Summer Sun

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Blue, we know very well in the North west cold zonality doesn't deliver unless you have decent altitude- the Irish sea temps are our nemesis- and i saw them posted recently..

That is true. it should be the best placed  but the warming from the sea scuppers the snow.  further inland  if the showers make it, rain   quite readily turns to snow.  i shall be keeping a watching brief.  

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Its on the move again now though.

 

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Posted (edited)

similar ish to the Ecm   up she goes just after 264  High cant quite make it  on this run  scuppered by the purple blob

gfsnh-0-264.png

Edited by weirpig

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Para brings a snowy NW'ly in FI..

image.thumb.png.b35fe58150d26ec2f504b78d895a027f.png

Dreadfull fi tbh

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GFS(P) wakes up from the Pit of misery and delivers a cold shot to the majority of the UK!

image.thumb.png.cd407d384f9d3cb58ecf39f9ab26a95c.pngimage.thumb.png.09adde0d73d7d600dd0dfa4f2c005a4a.png

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I note that there seems to be a little less scatter in the gfs over the next few days, vs runs from a couple of weeks ago. Good to see.

Something colder trending as well, perhaps? Although FI remains FI...

Older.thumb.JPG.a8a12b3ee82ef3f6aafc29fa69dc6c3d.JPGNewer.thumb.JPG.02fef14625545d4c9ebf8446ce85f5c7.JPG

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Posted (edited)

So here are the swingometers up to the 06z

image.thumb.png.54481526e0bac7a65c6b42a8d497d3c0.pngimage.thumb.png.c61c2cb054133303c1300749c4079f9b.png 

Some colder runs in there but the vast majority are now showing cold zonality for January 20th. Little in the way of Northern blocking to our NW so all a bit disappointing TBH. The best run is P20 which sees the -10C isotherm over the UK at least.

The Global temperature anomaly for T168 shows the cold building yet again over NE Canada, plenty of fuel for the North Atlantic jet, we need it to shift west and get some warmer air over Newfoundland.

image.thumb.png.de9b719496a859cef0129ed191d83158.png

PS where are people finding the GFS parallel run? Its still stuck on yesterday on wetterzentrale.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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GFSp brings what looks like the way forward for a while with cyclonic cold pM air from LPs moving on NW/SE axis.   As long as the jet keeps moving that way more substantial set has good chance of occurring.  

 

BFTP

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The fi gefs look more mobile to me than the extended eps 

not ‘feeling the love’ for a sustained height rise to our nw yet ...

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The starting data for the all model output comes prior to this area of low pressure deepening and resolving in the North Pacific.(green dot on the earth null school image) (cyclone pattern on the GFS Northern Hemisphere image to the centre top of the image) (shown tomorrow around midday, 940mb)This will be the lowest area of pressure on the planet tomorrow and will effect the jet stream movement / track downstream into the weekend. I feel until this is in starting input and resolved we will see a few swings in the pattern downstream towards our shores. 

1649159021_ScreenShot2019-01-09at11_55_50.thumb.png.260c5a7a4b6eb16557dea8dbf98688ca.png  1759499865_ScreenShot2019-01-09at11_52_02.thumb.png.84ecc827d8acfd4c383a1a9db5831600.png

We need to see background dynamics slow down now. AAM and the MJO have done their work getting us to this point, we need the wave in the jet stream and the wedges to start falling in the correct place. As the energy spills down from the upper atmosphere I think wee may see more of these cyclonic patterns emerge so its still a waiting game Imo. The week commencing the 21st January is my bet for the cold to really start digging in.

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7 minutes ago, Vikos said:

GFS Op still has this overforced atlantic bias...

 

Yes... the overforced Atlantic bias that has failed to predict the severe cold since November......

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I wouldn’t be expecting the proper cold (ignoring cold zonality which I know some are very content with) until after 21/1 ..... could get in three days earlier if we are lucky with the amplification 

Did you write Exeters update Blue?

Because it sounds like what you just posted..

Hopefully some better ops forthcoming, they have been a bit meh this morning

 

...

Edited by northwestsnow

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