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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It really infuriates me when people comment saying not as good this run then the next comment is scrap it it’s all good, let the flaming thing run through a bit first before all the knee jerk comments! There’s so many good knowledgeable people in here maybe some need to learn from them and stop the up down up down so much. How can people learn with it all....drives me mad. Sorry mods off topic but you have your work cut out in here at times

True - No point in commenting on what might come much later in a run from what is happening within the first five days .... it’s not possible to know ! 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I like the way this op shows how squeaky bum this much trailed set up could become at times - very much as per met office output.  

I think even if the initial set-up doesn't come off, the GFS 06z shows several different reloading cold shots, one of them would land even if we do somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but IF the first blow connects...then we could have a very long prolonged pattern for sure!

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Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

pure filth from the 06z

anim_kek5.gif

 

Synoptically stunning!

How do you make those gifs?

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

Booooo. At least it would give everyone a chance to get and sledge in the frozen sunshine!

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

How do you make those gifs?

On Meteociel there is an icon called GIF. Click on it, choose your parameters and create the gif. Then copy and paste the link 😃

Edited by karlos1983

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

State of the vortex though, bless it.

Pretty sure we would see a Northerly reload pretty soon after and a nice link of heights across the pole.

Longevity.

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Most interesting thing for me is that the GFS is going against its bias of rolling the atlantic in over us in low res.. the UK will be at a total stand still if these charts are even close to being correct.

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6Z is a stunner, as others have said.

Think i'm looking forward to Exeters musings in an hour so...

 

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Wow! This must be a netweather first: locked-in cold with no sign of a breakdown!:cold:

image.thumb.png.c821b16945e45fdea2ea4111cf29ef00.png

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18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I think you referring to that December 81 to January 82 period and DARE!

I’m 57 and in Gloucester/Bristol it was Amazing!

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00Z T850 ensemble: an increasing number of members dipping to between -10 and -16C..The trend is your friend!

image.thumb.png.7160ded3574e386adbd4f3b7180de674.png

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Wow! This must be a netweather first: locked-in cold with no sign of a breakdown!:cold:

image.thumb.png.c821b16945e45fdea2ea4111cf29ef00.png

Pete, do i detect a 

image.thumb.png.622a1dd792d8f1fecb84ee36826135a0.pngimage.thumb.png.ea57cc5bc69384eb2a4ff1f91cff3a5c.png

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Before all of the fun and games  we need the here and now period to behave.  All good according to the Ens 

image.thumb.png.f081617ed97056bb1b74a4be19e4e42e.png

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

00Z T850 ensemble: an increasing number of members dipping to between -10 and -16C..The trend is your friend!

image.thumb.png.7160ded3574e386adbd4f3b7180de674.png

Try the 6z suite, much better ridging on the mean will mean many more of those runs and more will be sustained.

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Just now, weirpig said:

Before all of the fun and games  we need the here and now period to behave.  All good according to the Ens 

image.thumb.png.f081617ed97056bb1b74a4be19e4e42e.png

That is a CRACKING mean wooooohooooooo...

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Good guidance from the GEFS for that link up between Atlantic Ridge and wedge to the N/NE:

gens_panel_xoa5.png  Now at T180: gens_panel_azs3.png

Control T180: gens-0-1-180.thumb.png.9d8a24b3029e69608b12d71c38dd42de.png

Nice trend...

 

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seems the ens are firming up

image.thumb.png.39ef7c491e75753f8a300d875383f480.png

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Um.. wow?

Wow.thumb.png.23cf74a13f94802531095136024bea10.pngdownload.thumb.png.6c2798ed0330deb7144c4b7d32a98bf5.png

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