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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

00Z T850 ensemble: an increasing number of members dipping to between -10 and -16C..The trend is your friend!

image.thumb.png.7160ded3574e386adbd4f3b7180de674.png

Try the 6z suite, much better ridging on the mean will mean many more of those runs and more will be sustained.

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The 06z para is looking very good as well at 144hrs, looks like it has finally woke up and has decided to get with the programme. Pattern probably isn't as good as the 06z GFS op, but it really is MANY time better than the runs from the para yesterday!

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Control backs the Op :shok:

image.thumb.png.a157653e0a3b166ce6dbc1b3f1d38aa1.png

That's a stunning chart, and those long NE's remind me of Jan 1987... 

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I can't help but giggle at the thought of this place should a Dec 2012 happen all over again! Models really are firming up on what could potentially be a very special and prolonged spell of winter weather!

The first hurdle (trough disrupting into Europe and height rises) is almost dealt with, we should get more model consensus for that this evening/tomorrow morning. Then if we get the azores/Arctic High link up the 6z GFS is what happens.

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The GFS para has a decent amount of convection trying to push inland, that is despite a relatively stable pattern with the high pressure, so a good sign, especially as lapse rates aren't anything that amazing either (though obviously if the 06z GFS happens, those lapse rates will be more noteable for sure!)

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1 minute ago, Glacier Point said:

Extended ensemble means starting to reduce the Western US ridge in favour of Alaskan / Arctic ridges. Will be interesting to watch this trend as it opens the door for more westerly flow through the southern arm of the jet and undercutting . 

The high expectation for February is for low pressure in the North Atlantic currently where we have a programmed anomalous ridge . 

Sounds rewarding but also dangerous.

 

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