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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

And thats were you want your high griceland not scandi for a prolonged extreme cold snowy run.

gfsnh-0-222.png

That’s an incredible set up! Especially good for frontal snowfall potential in the West Country!

And it all starts to set up at a reasonable timeframe with the Azores undercut.

lovely jubbly 

 

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Here comes round 3... madness.

C55C81A0-B6AB-41BB-B219-30199B13DA1E.png

Yup, almost as if something strong is buckling the jet stream and preventing mean Westerlies! Literally rinse and repeat: 

image.thumb.png.bac21f6ab6deb8987410bfbe68c09d22.png

Edited by ITSY
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The 6z would be up there with some of histories absolute classic snowfalls across the UK. High pressure remaining in Situ to the North while low after low slides underneath absolutely burying much of Southern England..

Wow.thumb.png.a8a1174a5cd75a69a58111dbd2dee673.pngYES.thumb.png.2e4ad8f16725fb7d90ae67fbdc38644c.png

Incredible!

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GFS now sending reinforcements to the high from the mid Atlantic

WHAT.thumb.png.ae66daedbd008ebbb45b42ee2e637337.png

If this pattern does actually develop, the UK will be locked into the freezer for 3/4 weeks minimum..

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You’d ideally want the energy disrupting a touch more se to feed low heights over northern Italy rather than towards Iberia but really this is nit picking because upto day ten the GFS was astounding .

We are likely to see more changes but hopefully just variations on the same cold and wintry theme !

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Amazingly stubborn pattern, that is the sort of stuff that made Dec 10, Feb 47, Jan 63, etc....

Anyway out to 300hrs and the PV lobe coming down towards Eurasia again, should help to keep the airflow broadly from the north and reload the cold pattern again after it slightly runs out of puff.

Wow....

BOOM!!!!

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2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

It really infuriates me when people comment saying not as good this run then the next comment is scrap it it’s all good, let the flaming thing run through a bit first before all the knee jerk comments! There’s so many good knowledgeable people in here maybe some need to learn from them and stop the up down up down so much. How can people learn with it all....drives me mad. Sorry mods off topic but you have your work cut out in here at times

True - No point in commenting on what might come much later in a run from what is happening within the first five days .... it’s not possible to know ! 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I like the way this op shows how squeaky bum this much trailed set up could become at times - very much as per met office output.  

I think even if the initial set-up doesn't come off, the GFS 06z shows several different reloading cold shots, one of them would land even if we do somehow snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, but IF the first blow connects...then we could have a very long prolonged pattern for sure!

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Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

Booooo. At least it would give everyone a chance to get and sledge in the frozen sunshine!

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

How do you make those gifs?

On Meteociel there is an icon called GIF. Click on it, choose your parameters and create the gif. Then copy and paste the link ?

Edited by karlos1983
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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meh..384hrs puts too much pressure on the high from the Canadian lobe and sees it toppling towards the UK rather than NE towards Scandinavia 

384.thumb.png.ab2beab908c166ab00bd06dee8e9819f.png

Disappointing despite much of the UK already being buried under feet of snow from the previous.. well, entire run..

State of the vortex though, bless it.

Pretty sure we would see a Northerly reload pretty soon after and a nice link of heights across the pole.

Longevity.

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Most interesting thing for me is that the GFS is going against its bias of rolling the atlantic in over us in low res.. the UK will be at a total stand still if these charts are even close to being correct.

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