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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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3 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Yes, although how many times have we seen energy / shortwaves pop up at T+96 and less in the GIN corridor in these setups. Lets hope that doesnt happen but cold is so fragile to get in the UK it only takes small mesoscale events to ruin potentially great setups .. 

Luckily key timeframe is *already* within 96hrs, probably around 72hrs now and that is how the low pressure exits from the US east coast into the Atlantic and how far east it gets from that point onwards. Probably 24hrs of possible changes before I'd say we are locked in.

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Just now, Nick F said:

Looks like 06z GFS might be going for the Atlantic undercut weekend of the 26/27th - that would be good news

 

 

 

GFSOPEU06_192_1.png

Euro Trough reinforcements 8) yes please!

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No complaints from me. More of a Northerly component to the continental draw, no bad thing though, creates a more stubborn block, with an undercut and a nice cut off HP around the Griceland locale.

Great for longevity. Should be a lovely FI.

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Amazing upstream pattern at 192hrs, I mean its loaded for cold and attempted breakdown, but I think there is little chance it succeds and will shear off to the SW. GREAT!

(see, I'm not always miserable, I'm sure people must have thought that early AM!)

PS, should get a better easterly draw by 216hrs as the upper flow is tilting negative again near the UK.

Edited by kold weather
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Exceptional cold for the UK by T204 hrs . The slack flow and very low 850s . Easily talking sub -10 widely through inland areas .

 

Both the GFS 06z and the ECM are exceptionally cold by that point, both would probably make Ice days!

This 06z is rapidly turning into one of those all time greats, 2nd such in as nearly as many days!

Classic 80s style battleground coming for the SW...

Edited by kold weather
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Note the eps wanted to expand the mean euro trough nw again day 9 onwards - whether that’s via the Atlantic running systems into it or something being advected around the back of the upper ridge is unknown but likely both on the whole suite 

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Still very Snowy Tuesday morning as cold undercuts that front on GFS 06z and going into Wednesday more widespread so kinky on the isobars..

 

EDIT: Someone beat me to it 

Edited by Surrey
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My experience of classic easterly outbreaks is that if they do not have an early pattern change then they are only snow producers for a maximum of 3-4 days.

1987 - 3 days then ran out of cold pool and temps lifted gradually.

1991 - 3 days then ran out of cold pool but high migrated towards UK keeping surface very cold for 2 weeks.

2018 - 3 days then pattern change from a mild direction

2019 - ???

Ideally you want easterly - then northerly to tap into another trough and then back to easterly. Happened a few occasions before my time (47/63 etc) but yet to experience it with any real longevity in my lifetime.

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Note the eps wanted to expand the mean euro trough nw again day 9 onwards - whether that’s via the Atlantic running systems into it or something being advected around the back of the upper ridge is unknown but likely both on the whole suite 

Having looked through most of the runs, its indeed a mixture of both, some even have both features which leads to a really messy battleground type set-up!

Stu London, yes the problem with those extreme shots is they tend to form the core of a new Atlantic upper low once they get to about 30W which shifts the flow to the south. Won't happen this time.

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usual caveats of being in lala land, but we could do with that low scooting off, before it drags mild air into the mix. But my my, what a run, begs the question where do we go from here on the 12z lol

image.thumb.png.30ff25ff31de054a7280f805c28c9043.png

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG utterly stunning GFS output ! For the UK you won’t get much better than this if you’re a coldie.

This is a mega run for sure, certainly one of the better runs I've ever seen!

, The upper flow suggests the set-up isn't going away quickly even at 216hrs, and we are back to a true easterly for most away from the south where the influence of the LP may bend winds SE instead.

12z suite has a lot to live upto, just about anything will be a downgrade from this...

Finally, needs to be noted this EXACTLY the same as the 00z control run which was crazy good even into FI...

Edited by kold weather
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