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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
Just now, KTtom said:

Not sure about some comments regarding ecm at 144...the Azores high has found it's mating partner...that's the key!

ECMOPEU00_144_1-3.png

Indeed, and it's rising to the occasion! 

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Skyraker Aficionado

Skyraker

Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No downgrades on ECM- perfect in my eyes!

Plenty of snow over the UK 96-168

Great, I’ll wake the missus up and tell her...

brb...

yeah, that went as expected.

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ItNeverSnowsInWindsor Experienced

ItNeverSnowsInWindsor

Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted
2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Not sure about some comments regarding ecm at 144...the Azores high has found it's mating partner...that's the key!

ECMOPEU00_144_1-3.png

Looks to be following the UKMO more than the GFs with the arctic high more prominent.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No downgrades on ECM- perfect in my eyes!

Plenty of snow over the UK 96-168

Do we not need the trough to be a little further West? 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Wow that is SO close to going wrong on the ECM. Looks like pressure will likely collapse reasonably quickly south into the UK from 168hrs.

Cold run still but that is probably just a 100 mile shift away from not working out this run...

Also note how zonal pattern is upstream, that will put pressure on any block.

Edited by kold weather
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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted (edited)

Excellent ECM this morning so far. The arctic high drops into Scandi to link with the Atlantic high and turning things easterly, good continuation and consistency now from the ECM.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Wow that is SO close to going wrong on the ECM. Looks like pressure will likely collapse reasonably quickly south into the UK from 168hrs.

Cold run still but that is probably just a 100 mile shift away from not working out this run...

Also note how zonal pattern is upstream, that will put pressure on any block.

Yes, hopefully a little more margin for error come the evening run. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Arctic high really is the hero on this ECM.

192hrs and great cold feed but flat pattern in Atlantic means our block probably will struggle to make it past 240hrs.

Great run but on very shaky ground between 120-144hrs, just one small shortwave and it's brown bread ..

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Do we not need the trough to be a little further West? 

Further North rather than further W would be nice.

Edited by Mucka
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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Arctic high really is the hero on this ECM.

192hrs and great cold feed but flat pattern in Atlantic means our block probably will struggle to make it past 240hrs.

Great run but on very shaky ground between 120-144hrs, just one small shortwave and it's brown bread ..

Not really cold that's a completely natural evolution seen many times before over the years. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

have a good day all -192 is superb with -13s attacking the UK from the East...

Not sure how great for snow it would be area from favoured spots given we are in ab anti cyclonic flow in this run compared to the GFS, but north sea will do the job for exposed places for sure.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

Bitterly cold but predominantly dry post 144 in my locality really but the SE corner of England is really in the firing line. Plenty of adjustments between now and T-0!

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

2BB6EF92-B9FD-46C9-B731-87D855151772.thumb.png.2eaa24bb4d8c88d2a4107e6f142f4867.png

I’ve been reading this forum for weeks and looking at charts predicting HLB over Greenland. 

I’m sure the ec weeklies were predicting that.

It’s not what we are seeing. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Not really cold that's a completely natural evolution seen many times before over the years. 

Yes true, I've also seen those go very wrong, including THAT ECM which had a small shortwave in a very similar setup scupper things.

I'd perfer a cleaner evolution, that's all.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

All 3 are heading down a similar route. At t144 there are bound to be some differences but these differences are not boom or bust. Some are just better. As long as they all stick to the same theme we can have the joy of working out the finer detail as we get nearer T 0.

Edited by That ECM
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Bitter cold UK high forming at 216hrs with probable ice days as we still got the cold flow but scandi high just about gone by 216hrs due to poor intial placement of the upper trough as I've mentioned.

Breakdown attempt from BW may provide fun?

Edited by kold weather
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inghams85 Community Regular

inghams85

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
Posted
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

2BB6EF92-B9FD-46C9-B731-87D855151772.thumb.png.2eaa24bb4d8c88d2a4107e6f142f4867.png

I’ve been reading this forum for weeks and looking at charts predicting HLB over Greenland. 

I’m sure the ec weeklies were predicting that.

It’s not what we are seeing. 

The weeklies were showing Greenland heights from the 28th which looking at 192 we could see next frame 

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