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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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38 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Morning all 😄

Hopefully a day of stability and/or upgrades ahead starting with the 00Z runs. Fingers crossed the UKMO edges closer towards the Euro today, as that's the only model worrying me at present.

 

GFS underway: GFSOPEU00_45_1.png

It’s looking like it’s going to be a stupendous run. Big easterly incoming on this one! Just watching them heights sink through the floor over the med is better than any legal high!! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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7 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

It’s looking like it’s going to be a stupendous. Big easterly incoming on this one! Just watching them heights sink through the floor over the med is better than any legal high!

 

Also note its now much snowier Monday into Tuesday... 

Edited by Surrey
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12 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Was thinking the same, this could be an epic gfs 00z run. 

Also note its now much snowier Monday into Tuesday... 

So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall).

Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes 😁

 

Edit: Is this as good as it looks? 😳

gfs-13-102.png

Edited by Mizzle
Can't spell and bravely added an image.
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10 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall).

Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes 😁

 

Edit: Is this as good as it looks? 😳

gfs-13-102.png

Yes thats the GFS quickly turns the rain to snow over the UK because of that wedge of deep upper cold 

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UKMO 0z still not fully singing from the EC sheet.  A bit better than yesterdays offerings but the trough over Europe drops quite far south, thus struggling advect any noteworthy upper air cold;

UN144-21.thumb.gif.0328615cdb49fe228c6ab3d1721feea9.gif

UN144-7.thumb.gif.b824c176a63dfba1c866a9fac4b2d297.gif

Like I said, a bit better but still room for improvements.

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Just now, essexweather said:

Big improvement from the UKMO this morning, decent snow event moving South-Eastwards out of Scotland late weekend. This was all rain on yesterdays 12Z over lower ground in the South.

850s are generally -5 to -7c across the East and Midlands this run 🙂

144.gif

@essexweather

Do you get a 168 chart? 😉

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

@essexweather

Do you get a 168 chart? 😉

Can't access from home 😞

Toggling the run through 120-132-144hr its obvious the high is edging further in from the Atlantic which is not good. If the ECM delivers shortly, you'd expect the 12Z UKMO to push everything further West. Baby steps!

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Just now, essexweather said:

Can't access from home 😞

Toggling the run through 120-132-144hr its obvious the high is edging further in from the Atlantic which is not good. If the ECM delivers shortly, you'd expect the 12Z UKMO to push everything further West. Baby steps!

UKmo has the low to far East Need to keep that Hp away from us. Don't want a toppler. 

.

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27 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

So grateful to have you here at this time! I am a newbie who has waited up every night for the past week on these 0z runs. (And to my chagrin overslept yesterday and missed our 10min snowfall).

Watching this one roll out I am soooo excited but not confident enough to know I wasn't merely imagining it!!! Looks fabulous to my beginners eyes 😁

 

Edit: Is this as good as it looks? 😳

gfs-13-102.png

Haha! When you got runs like this morning churning out, with what seems like a trend forming to very very cold, quite a few of us will be up now! 

As Steve says, we woke up yesterday to delight and the same today... 

What is going on? This never happens!! 

We now have snow events entering the reliable 

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5 minutes ago, snowice said:

UKmo has the low to far East Need to keep that Hp away from us. Don't want a toppler. 

.

I'm no expert but surely it wouldn't be a toppler, due to the low highs in main land Europe the high would turn into a scandi high pressure?

If I'm wrong if someone could put me right will help the learning process

Edited by DanBaynes
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GFS is great, GEM is stunning, UKMO better but not quite there. (still good I should add)

 

GEM is what we want to see. Perfect for a NE then a nice E and retrogression for a reload thereafter.

gemnh-0-174.png?00gemnh-0-198.png?00

 

Edited by Mucka
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2 minutes ago, DanBaynes said:

I'm no expert but surely it wouldn't be a toppler, due to the low highs in main land Europe the high would turn into a scandi high pressure?

Needs to be further west so we can tap into the colder Air.! 

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GFSp also improved, we are not there yet but looking good for an Easterly

gfsnh-0-132.png

Edited by Mucka
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I think we can now say there is going to be an Easterly next week. Cracking 00z so far. I think the UKMO is very close to being perfect i don't think it would topple as the low hieghts will stop it falling but would still expect further corrections and upgrades. Great not to have those early morning blues. Why do Met and BBC still show rain or sleet though for most of the country and temps between 4 to 6 degrees. Looking at every model now all show it much colder and uppers and dew points to be snow. It's a puzzler.

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GEM has gone from the worst output to the best.

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Continuing on briefly from the short range with the gfs. By T144 there is a large area of low pressure over western Europe as the high pressure now ridges north east thus the UK in quite a strong north easterly portending wintry showers in the north and east. Twenty four hours later a similar scenario but everything has slipped a tad south east.  By T210 the slippage is complete as the ridge cones under renewed pressure from the energy exiting the eastern seaboard. As has been said repeatable, this is a long way from a done deal

gfs_z500_vort_natl_24.thumb.png.1cd96dabfb36ffedfacc4642f0b9851d.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.226d923e25d0048a989692ef277a9885.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_36.thumb.png.d66ce597ce89178838ec35c8ab31c546.png

 

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Sorry but I do think the GFS has 'gone off on one with that low pressure bomb shot all the way to the med. With ukmo for comparison. *Edit. I bet ECM will follow ukmo's lead

gfseu-0-144 (5).png

UE144-21 (13).gif

Edited by Seasonality
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5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp also improved, we are not there yet but looking good for an Easterly

gfsnh-0-132.png

Yes it’s looking like a high probability the main thing for me is that the overnight ukmo update has come over to a better solution and more inline with the other big two at present. Let’s prey the ecm stays broadly inline with last nights output.

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18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GFSp also improved, we are not there yet but looking good for an Easterly

gfsnh-0-132.png

FV3 has mixed out the T850s! 

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18 minutes ago, snowice said:

FV3 has mixed out the T850s! 

Think I seem to recall kold saying last night if we do get a scandi ridge that it may take some budging that bodes well hopefully..

Edited by london-snow
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Looking pretty good this morning across the board  for a decent spell of wintry weather.i wouldn't be fretting over 850s and precipitation a week or so away tbh.happy start to the weekend imminent!!!

Edited by swfc
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Deep Genoa trough theme continues. Get that in place and all roads will lead to cold thereafter.

Good start to the day. UKMO and GFSP, whiilst still not quite there yet, have edged the right way.

So, is the ECM going to hold firm or set nerves a jangling?

 

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