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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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I think :cold: sums up the GEFS nicely ( and if the possible easterly comes off like some runs have shown :help: could / would sum up the snow amounts for many areas nicely)

graphe3_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.5b8848951bd9d1c468ca296c33b89b3e.gif graphe3_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.b5022e3cd84d2015ac18960d31262155.gif  possible ice days too graphe6_1000___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.b57446290f6072c2fabeba285afc9a53.gifgraphe6_1001___-3.16202_56.10878_.thumb.gif.fded08a260131423c80b97b7aefc1974.gif http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=56.10878&lon=-3.16202&run=18&ext=fr&mode=0&sort=0 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_table.php?x=0&y=0&lat=56.10878&lon=-3.16202&run=18&ext=fr&mode=7&sort=0

still more runs needed for firming up but things could be getting even more busy very soon if / when those conditions affect the UK :drinks: ?

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

See the other chart i have added - -6c in Wales.

On a mountain. ?

But you win, there is at least now some output that does show a -5 max daytime temp.

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7 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Looks good doesnt it. The easterly is around a week long on gfs! Haven't seen anything like it se would be buried?  Ecm very similar

I wouldn't worry about length too much yet. If that storm out of the US behaves the way we want it to, to perfection, then we could be locked in for some while, which is what the EC46 is suggesting if I'm not mistaken. Tbh it's shown a pretty constant theme of HL Blocking and Euro Troughing throughout January, February and even March. By no means nailed on yet. Let's see what the UKMO says... 

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6 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Tonights 18z Next Wednesday night looks very snowy and windy. And several days after.

Anyone noticed the worried tone and seriousness in stavs video forecast .

19012406_1718.gif

Who's forecast?

 

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Just now, Mucka said:

On a mountain. ?

But you win, there is at least now some output that does show a -5 max daytime temp.

Anytime you have uppers of -15c or less, whic hthe 18z GFS does have -will mean -5c max's at this time of year, we didn't get much above -5c here on some days in late Feb / Early March cold spell. 

 

Anyway - stonking output today -take it you'll be on the night shift at 330 am.

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2 minutes ago, ZK099 said:

I wouldn't worry about length too much yet. If that storm out of the US behaves the way we want it to, to perfection, then we could be locked in for some while, which is what the EC46 is suggesting if I'm not mistaken. Tbh it's shown a pretty constant theme of HL Blocking and Euro Troughing throughout January, February and even March. By no means nailed on yet. Let's see what the UKMO says... 

Cheers for reply. Whens the UKMO out

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Anytime you have uppers of -15c or less, whic hthe 18z GFS does have -will mean -5c max's at this time of year, we didn't get much above -5c here on some days in late Feb / Early March cold spell. 

 

Anyway - stonking output today -take it you'll be on the night shift at 330 am.

The sun still has next to no strength in it, certainly i would always suggest mid Jan to mid Feb is prime time for a cold spell.

Im so hoping UKMO looks better come 00z runs...

?

 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

The sun still has next to no strength in it, certainly i would always suggest mid Jan to mid Feb is prime time for a cold spell.

Im so hoping UKMO looks better come 00z runs...

?

 

Yes, main thing though is ECM ensembles.

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Ha the GFSP makes a west based NAO in a quick shot, gotta love it, the para REALLY doesn't want us to have sustained cold does it!

Still, cool little LP developing to our SW about to end the cold shot with a bang on the para...

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16 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

Anyone noticed the worried tone and seriousness in stavs video forecast .

19012406_1718.gif

Sorry, missed that on beeb, do you mean Stav sounding worried & serious about cold weather for UK next week? 

edit: seems that's what it is. 

We seem to be almost there, fingers crossed.

Edited by Bruegelian
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1 minute ago, Bruegelian said:

Sorry, missed that on beeb, do you mean Stav sounding worried & serious about cold weather for UK next week? 

Yes, probably because he predicted NW winds not Easterlies yesterday, although tbf i'm not sure these days the actual presenter has much say, i know they are not allowed to change the graphics themselves, begs the question then whether there is any point in them having meteorological qualifications but thats another story.

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looking at the charts and how things are unfolding..i would be tempted to pop down the bookies and put money on a sub zero Feb CET if i was back home.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks like Exeter have gone with UKMET model so thats quite a sobering moment for me...

Ramp put away til 00z..

They almost always go with their own output on the FAXES, so wouldn’t get too worried about that.

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As others have said its the speed of the low coming off the Eastern seaboard which could play a huge part on just how much amplification there will be in the Atlantic. I think it be foolish at this stage to rule out a flatter evolution as this could well happen and that could have negative impacts for any easterly.

 

Nevertheless some decent looking runs at times but its by no means cut and dry although from what i seen, easterly or no easterly we are on the colder side of the jet in the outlook and with a low pressure system coming down from Iceland bringing its own cold air then theres definately a snowfall risk there. 

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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

The sun still has next to no strength in it, certainly i would always suggest mid Jan to mid Feb is prime time for a cold spell.

Im so hoping UKMO looks better come 00z runs...

?

 

Well the meto  long range models are forecasting easterlies in the longer term, whatever their  short range model is currently showing 5 to 6 days ahead so it will come round fully tomorrow I'm sure. 

Then we can all look forward to drowning in snow?❄️

Edited by SLEETY
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40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well the meto  long range models are forecasting easterlies in the longer term, whatever their  short range model is currently showing 5 to 6 days ahead so it will come round fully tomorrow I'm sure. 

Then we can all look forward to drowning in snow?❄️

well latest News 24 forecast is saying at some point after Monday Mornings frost the fronts are gonna Stop and cause some sleet and snow, I assume that means its gonna bump into the colder air already in place and is gonna slow down. 

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Morning all ?

Hopefully a day of stability and/or upgrades ahead starting with the 00Z runs. Fingers crossed the UKMO edges closer towards the Euro today, as that's the only model worrying me at present.

 

GFS underway: GFSOPEU00_45_1.png

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