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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Agreed with Shaky, very poor 18z run and is much worse with a much flatter pattern. 12z chart first, 18z second. Back-edge snow still possible on the front moving SE but for the most part cold rain.

1022078908_Icon12.thumb.png.d8a39e904823e903ad0910339a94c2d2.png830330483_icon18.thumb.png.d3176bebf200774bbe35e9adb08512da.png

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Agreed with Shaky, very poor 18z run and is much worse with a much flatter pattern. 12z chart first, 18z second.

1022078908_Icon12.thumb.png.d8a39e904823e903ad0910339a94c2d2.png830330483_icon18.thumb.png.d3176bebf200774bbe35e9adb08512da.png

More energy coming S/E just delayed

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Not sure about ICON, see what you think, here T120 and 12z T126:

image.thumb.jpg.050760cb17ffb12cff0fef51498fe106.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.6889581c1a22271a623f51eca08dfe79.jpg

Looks to me like the US low is held back west more on18z which would make it a better run?

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Just now, winterof79 said:

More energy coming S/E just delayed

Few of these type runs are in GFS ens.

Not a done deal yet 

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Yep very poor ICON tonight, and yes it is indeed worse than the 12z due to even more energy stretching out over the N.Atlantic. Hard to believe there is still that large disagreement at 96hrs! Wondering what the 18z GFS will show...always worry in these set-ups that it will backtrack.

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The cpc chart knocker posted is noted ....

 100% confidence in the upstream pattern and the blend the 00z ecm with the 06z gfs/gefs .... we seem so uncertain this side of the pond yet they see things so differently their side ........

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Snow events for where on saturday?

cannot see snow this Sat, maybe 26th? as extended forecast? as EC shows

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5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Christ, just seen the BBC extended forecast and they are going for the ECM solution big time with snow events Saturday and Tuesday and very com easterly winds afterwards. Totally ignoring the 18z GFS.

Andy

Well that’s stuffed it then! Whenever they get on board with something like this, it always seems to go wrong.

The ICON 18z should temper expectations. Probably off the mark, but may not be. Never a good sign when models don’t agree at T96.

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So it looks likely now even colder weather is on the way for next week as an bitter easterly flow sets in and all so snow showers getting very interesting now ..

4F149C97-CB21-4937-B8D6-79186215329A.png

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Nothing too much to note on GFS 18z at the moment by T66... The low coming off the US East Coast is a tad further west along with the rest of the pattern to the west of the UK. Fingers crossed for an improvement going forward now.

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there currently seems little prospect of decent snowfall on Tuesday. Ec has some on northern hills and Ukmo raw data is showing some light snow in Leeds but light rain in Manchester ..... with the trough drop still unclear, probably not worth analysis at the moment - could look different tomorrow. whereas if the easterly to follow verifies, that looks like ‘streamer time’ and we could also see disturbances headed sw from Scandinavia 

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Despite EC/EC mean etc i will not feel comfortable until UKMO in particular is on board..

00z runs will be very revealing.

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tomorrow night showing a few more hashed lines across the country, maybe more snow than expected in the 18z?

 

snow.png

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Just now, Banbury said:

Do you write for the Express ROFL

Hardly snow events , just watched the forecast, boy you've bigged it up. There is no denying the Beeb have followed ECM but snow events ?? they didn't show anything of the sort 

You don’t understand the Penrith micro climate! 

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13 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cannot see snow this Sat, maybe 26th? as extended forecast? as EC shows

This could be what their referring to 

F16843A9-737E-4092-AD29-C82B3E264439.png

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It's a little difficult to know how good ICON is because it doesn't go far enough, though there is less energy heading S/SE around 120 compared to the previous run so it probably wouldn't have looked great!

Hopefully we see a full swing back to cold from the GFS, I wouldn't bet against it given the wild swings in outputs at the moment.

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

there currently seems little prospect of decent snowfall on Tuesday. Ec has some on northern hills and Ukmo raw data is showing some light snow in Leeds but light rain in Manchester ..... with the trough drop still unclear, probably not worth analysis at the moment - could look different tomorrow. whereas if the easterly to follow verifies, that looks like ‘streamer time’ and we could also see disturbances headed sw from Scandinavia 

I'm sure Steve Murr posted a few hours ago a good event for West Midlands to Wales for Tuesday.... so some disagreement

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Got a horrible feeling about this run already!!less deep low across the states aswell!!

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The GFS looks decently more progressive on the low pressure this run, out to 75hrs probably 80 miles further NNE than the 12z run. May not mean anything at this stage but just worth noting.

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The niggling feeling I have is that all our cold eggs are in one basket - the ecm basket. Tomorrow will be very revealing as the ukmo will come into view of the critical 5 to 6 day timeframe. We need this model on board before we half open the prosecco ?

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Got a horrible feeling about this run already!!less deep low across the states aswell!!

What ? its the same mate 985mb   at 84h   chill

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