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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Your not being negative, just taking the charts at face value. There will always be the background signals, or blocking appearing appearing in the N.H charts, but as long as a chunk of PV is sat over Greenland it really doesn't bode well.

Not strictly true. Have a read of Nick's Post from a couple of pages back :oldgood:

 

Edited by karlos1983

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11 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Your not being negative, just taking the charts at face value. There will always be the background signals, or blocking appearing appearing in the N.H charts, but as long as a chunk of PV is sat over Greenland it really doesn't bode well.

The idea hopefully is for that chunk of vortex to move down over us, with pressure rising behind. So we need it to appear before it quickly shifts. I wouldn't expect the GFS to show that at this stage.

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Posted (edited)

Just looking at the charts  not bad   the Ecm is similar to the control run last night  with a cold northwesterly flow hitting the UK. with possible height rises after   i also see the Para from last night (18z) has updated   that seems very similar    

Still on track in my opinion. 

gfsnh-0-276.png

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by weirpig

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The Gfs 00z operational isn't all bad, there's some snow for the SE and the north..would be much better than the dross so far this winter!👍❄️⛄😉

00_264_preciptype.png

00_384_preciptype.png

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40 minutes ago, Lloyds32 said:

Your not being negative, just taking the charts at face value. There will always be the background signals, or blocking appearing appearing in the N.H charts, but as long as a chunk of PV is sat over Greenland it really doesn't bode well.

Greenland is a massive place of course. If a chunk of the PV is located towards the South and East of the Island, then yes it doesn't bode well, however, if the PV pulls back more towards the North West of Greenland it affords the opportunity for a decent ridge in between as the PV splits.

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Some of you would be surprised at how quickly a raging PV over Greenland can dissipate. There have been many times in the past. Perhaps someone can show an example off the top of their heads? 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Some of you would be surprised at how quickly a raging PV over Greenland can dissipate. There have been many times in the past. Perhaps someone can show an example off the top of their heads? 

Run this through.. PV just gets blown away! I'd take a repeat of that 8) (Dec 2010)

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=code&mode=0&mode3h=0&runpara=0&carte=1&heure=0&jour=9&mois=12&annee=2010&archive=1

Edited by karlos1983

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GFS 6z looking very good early on Arctic high split early perhaps could be a belter signed of by Gerry Cinnamon..😉

gfsnh-0-144 (1).png

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Posted (edited)

6z has a much weaker feature coming out the eastern seaboard, compared to the 0z (6z first)

08FDEA6D-8F4A-407E-BB1F-67186B156A20.thumb.jpeg.fd84aa2d4a7b80d4428c4107d7e5ed40.jpeg

C57D4B80-7C1A-4F6C-9667-D13FD3C4E6BB.jpeg

Edited by Weathizard

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Some of you would be surprised at how quickly a raging PV over Greenland can dissipate. There have been many times in the past. Perhaps someone can show an example off the top of their heads? 

The slight shift west makes all the difference to let the high in and in a week important differences can take place as this year showed! Edit, I mean last year lol!

71EFFD8D-385A-4BA3-BD0C-FB494FECAA4B.jpeg

00740F92-5042-4689-8375-46CE08F97FB5.jpeg

Edited by Matthew.

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Posted (edited)

It says no to a mid/late next week blast for most, but the East coast would still be pretty cold I imagine. I think I was always a little over optimist about significant cold before the 20th.

4A7B9ABF-9BA0-4EB6-958D-07CAC5675DEC.png

Edited by Ali1977

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A slider, could produce some wintry precipitation over higher parts of the centre of the country

image.thumb.png.2c507d1f3dbeed8644dbb0376f00343c.pngimage.thumb.png.7623657046ec61d460f2bab0ea3952b9.pngimage.thumb.png.e8fd4b373867f2e56dd63c695b389743.png

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Not a fan of this run, last few GFS runs have been quite underwhelming after some of yesterday’s runs. Don’t get me wrong this isn’t a woeful chart per say but given some of the outputs on offer yesterday it’s a bit meh!

2EF95455-1699-4DF2-A430-1BEA72217557.png

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39 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Some of you would be surprised at how quickly a raging PV over Greenland can dissipate. There have been many times in the past. Perhaps someone can show an example off the top of their heads? 

On mobile but december 1962 is a good example 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i think i agree with you Steve..

Big EC coming up !!

🙂

Clearly not.  This AZH ‘part of the slug’ is an issue.  Concerned that things are being shunted east....a watching brief at this stage

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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Hello friends,

been following this Thread for quite a time... thumbs up!

I would like to ask you, if those GFS runs can be taken very serious because of the shutdown problem...specially focused on possible missing "human"-error correction (GFS Strong Atlantic Bias)

And are there any EC-Charts for t850pa/2m Anomaly avaible for 20.1.+ ?

 

EC looks good for ME eps_pluim_tt_06380.png

 

my regards from Germany

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Seems the Ops are not on board yet with any proper cold before the 20th at least despite some juicy ensembles members.

The wait goes on for anything in the reliable time frame.  

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Yuk! Someone fly a plane over that vortex piece and drop a nuke on it!

8ADD9886-A579-4A8D-966B-15D854CC6908.png

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