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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Anyone seen the CMA it’s been cosistent over the last few days and the most recent one is an peach 

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8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

.  What this shows is that, if this model is accurate 9 days out (which is unlikely) we would have a cold NErly flow.

This is the model thread and thats what this one shows so he is correct - the fact that there are umpteen other pertubations of what might happen 9 days out is irrelevant. The ECM is not necessarily correct tonight, the GFS might be more accurate(although unlikely) - but that doesnt stop 150 people looking on here and posting on here because they are hoping the ECM is nailed on.

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4 minutes ago, Winter-Chaser said:

What chart is that please? 

850 temps for next weekend

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12z GEM ensembles are moving colder on this suite of runs, still some big uncertainties but some great runs on there. some take 2 bites of the cherry but still get there in the end. GEM op run probably in the top 3 zonal runs by the way.

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What time are the ECM 46 day model temperature anomalies available? Seem to remember last time people posting them a few hours before the sea level pressure anomalies were available.

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Just now, MattStoke said:

What time are the ECM 46 day model temperature anomalies available? Seem to remember last time people posting them a few hours before the sea level pressure anomalies were available.

Only available Mondays.

 

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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9 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

sure looks cold on here!

DxIqieWX4AA6HF4.jpeg

 

6 minutes ago, Winter-Chaser said:

What chart is that please? 

They are 2 meter temperature anomaly charts not 850’s

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As good old Frank Sinatra said, Ol` Blue eyes is back.....

 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM0-168.gif

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

They are 2 meter temperature anomaly charts not 850’s

Thank you 👍🏻

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18 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

sure looks cold on here!

DxIqieWX4AA6HF4.jpeg

 

As Karlos said, this is the 2m temperature anomaly.  If my eyesight is correct, that shows the temperature in the UK and Ireland anywhere between 4 - 9 degrees below average.  That'll do for starters!

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14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

They are 2 meter temperature anomaly charts not 850’s

whoops im sorry. Been looking at so many lovely charts my heads gone!

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10 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

EC Ens up to 6 on the clusters, but the key stand out is the blocking platform across them, atlantic is primed, AAM has spiked precisely when the downwelling advertised on the paint drip connects -  Genuinely cannot see a road back to the flatter solutions from here. I think 'That ECM' will get usurped in the not too distant future.

Nope, though what might be possible is there is a little too much pressure from the upper PV over Ne Canada which flattens the HP towards the UK, at least until we get some downwelling around the 28-30th of January. Indeed that is what the ECM control run is showing on the 12z ensembles. However it is certainly looking promising.

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9 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although there are some differences with this evening's NOAA and the EPS ext mean, the Atlantic ridge (or not) and thus the precise position of the Euro trough, they are  very much in the same ball park so it's worth noting the conclusion of the prognostic discussion.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

As previously mentioned surface analysis tricky and to be sorted, but unsettled and colder than average will suffice for now

814day_03.thumb.gif.2ce1062c8d2e322df9acf5d231334b72.gif8-13.thumb.png.42addee2aeb49c25362f351edfbf3c1f.png

 

I surmise that that mid Atlantic ridge is getting stronger towards the back end of the D8-13 period and would likely have more of a Greenland component to it by D15 on the eps

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Nope, though what might be possible is there is a little too much pressure from the upper PV over Ne Canada which flattens the HP towards the UK, at least until we get some downwelling around the 28-30th of January. Indeed that is what the ECM control run is showing on the 12z ensembles. However it is certainly looking promising.

Agree, when I say no flatter runs I mean in eventuality vs. 'They won't appear at all'... the jet will be juice via the TPV and various filaments ejecting via trough disruption -  for clarity this is not the case of the HP predication sloping off and slugging into Europe, there is a definitive wave guide that wants to dial in on Iberia, this when it first appeared advertised sliders.. it wants to repeat too.. in fact the theme of repetition is looking pretty extreme right now, JMA last night at the outer envelope of severity. Control is watch out for sure, however I think the drain of the NE vortex lobe will appreciate once it kicks off proper disruption.

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Although there are some differences with this evening's NOAA and the EPS ext mean, the Atlantic ridge (or not) and thus the precise position of the Euro trough, they are  very much in the same ball park so it's worth noting the conclusion of the prognostic discussion.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG 500-HPA HEIGHT, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.

As previously mentioned surface analysis tricky and to be sorted, but unsettled and colder than average will suffice for now

814day_03.thumb.gif.2ce1062c8d2e322df9acf5d231334b72.gif8-13.thumb.png.42addee2aeb49c25362f351edfbf3c1f.png

 

That old myth of we will get what the US get`s isn`t actually far off the mark currently, well apart from intensity but the jist is right there on the chart you posted. Lovely height wedge you often dream of winter after winter... crossing every digit I have for this.

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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well a great day on the model roller coaster!  0z runs very encouraging. 6z GFS beyond epic! Some continuity on 12z with some uncertainty.  So where do we stand right now?  

First, I think we have to acknowledge that there is a tipping point in whether the high lat block establishes early next week and kicks off UK winter.  It's a will it or won't it and it all depends on that storm on the US east coast.  From what I've read here and elsewhere ECM models this area best, so I'd weight ECM and ensembles higher than other output for the moment.  

Second, uncertainty, there's a lot, in my own profession uncertainty is very important (nothing to do with weather, by the way).  We take a Bayesian approach, and what that means applying that to the current model output is this: say there was no SSW and current weather was bog standard average, the 'prior' state.  We might now look at these current runs and conclude as has often happened in the past that the cold signal might have a reasonable probability of going down the toilet.

But start from the different premise (prior) that we know a very strong SSW happened on 1 Jan, the cold evolution is what we expect two and a half weeks down the line, so if we filter our view of the current output, the cold blocked outlook in the model output looks much more certain.  

Then we've got the wildcard of the US storm, but if that went bad for us - it may - if ECM is not correct, then that would probably only delay the cold evolution by a few days.

Any road, fascinating model watching!

Quite right Mike, code development is the same, which is my life 😖, Bayesian approach should really be adopted to everything we do lol. Quite prudent in this situation as you have pointed out! 

Edited by karlos1983

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Evening ! A easterly next week  looks certain. .watch this space..

ecmt850.240-6.png

h850t850eu-11.png

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Interestingly just a hint of a +VE NAO emerging on the 12z suite of the ECM towards the end of Jan. Only a hint but not as many decent ridging runs as you'd expect given the averages and past 240hrs it all fades away fairly quickly on quite a few of the suite. Doesn't mean much right now, just something to keep a small eye on maybe!

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