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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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13 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

Why are focusing on what happens after 240, rather the wintry depiction up to this point? It seems overly negative.

No I'm not, read my post, after 240!?! - I'm commenting on the similarities between the earlier gfs 6z run (which was a wintry nirvana) at a certain part of that run up to 240 with this evening's ecm run which has a slightly less amplified pattern at a higher latitude at that time.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

My God what a run from the Ecm 12z which follows through on the potential shown on last evening's 12z!!..great time to be a coldie with some truly amazing output today..think it's the tip of the iceberg so to speak..plenty of very wintry weather in the pipeline i think!👍:cold-emoji:❄️:shok:..seriously if this isn't worth a BOOM...nothing is!!!:bomb:

216_mslp850uk.png

 

240_mslp850uk.png

 

Gee whizz, Frosty...That's some stonkeroonie of an ECM!:cold::santa-emoji::yahoo:🎆

Edited by Blessed Weather
Some charts snipped to shorten quote

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Just now, Hull snow said:

Do we think ecm is likely to be correct or gfs?

Well that's the 1 million dollar question, isn't it.. 

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Just now, Hull snow said:

Do we think ecm is likely to be correct or gfs?

ECM!!!:cold:😁

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Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Well that's the 1 million dollar question, isn't it.. 

EC 46 will be intetesting later..

Hope its a snorter!!

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3 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Do we think ecm is likely to be correct or gfs?

I mean the ECM leads to cold.

The GFS leads to cold...just maybe a little delayed and perhaps a little more marginal...BUT higher potential for a jackpot snowfall from what I've seen looking at the ensembles of the GFS.

As long as its not the GEM solution, we will be ok!!

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2 minutes ago, NL said:

I know where my money would be.

Europe is pulling ahead

Atmospheric scientists and meteorologists tend to agree about one thing: Europe is better than the US (and arguably the rest of the world) at predicting weather.

Weather models can improve in three ways. First, the equations that model pressure systems in the atmosphere can get more accurate. Second, models can better incorporate real-time weather data. And third, scientists can increase a model's resolution by taking weather measurements from more points around the globe. Europe is far ahead on this last one: it takes data from 904 million prediction points and has 10 times more computing power than the US does to crunch those numbers.

https://www.businessinsider.com/government-shutdown-puts-us-behind-in-weather-forecasting-race-2019-1?r=UK

Nice post!

I'm leaning towards the EC too, it handled the track of lows during the summer for the US far far better than the GFS did. I do think the Det is probably showing the extreme end of possibilities so we probably wont get anything quite that severe though I think blocking to the North is probably the way forward late next week. 

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6 hours ago, beerandkebab said:

not relevant to my post Feb......I was simply putting the record straight as explained to me (and others) by a met office source 😊

Best you pm me with some info away from this thread. I stand by what I said unless you have concrete proof.

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00z 2146429611_17_01.1900z.thumb.png.55fc8e45dd0fdfe9db57b28ee152b733.png

12z 206099093_17_01.1912z.thumb.png.e5f6832ac6ee56b21fddc3ca434067a2.png

Very nice to see!

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12z ECM operational ENE flow is VERY unstable, plenty of showers coming in from what I can see. The ECM won't have the resolution to see just how heavy, but th signal is quite strong on there I have to say.

Anyway lets see what all the individual ECM members look like.

 

Edited by kold weather

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

gfs_nh-namindex_20190117.thumb.png.0cf916c3a18dcdad63025f9c86162314.png

Touchdown.

GEFS mean AO values for 25th onwards around -2SD. CGEM +1 for the same time scale off 00z. Not sure what's going on there, but fair chance model is not picking up this downwell signal.

Yeah the GEM is doing a pretty poor job in picking up the set-up aloft, though it has to be said some ensembles are starting to pick up on the signal now at last.

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7 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Incorrect.  We don't yet know this for a fact.  I appreciate you might think I'm being deliberately obtuse, but new or inexperienced members might think that this is certain to verify, which isn't the case.  What this shows is that, if this model is accurate 9 days out (which is unlikely) we would have a cold NErly flow.

Aye...We can 'boom' day-ten charts to our hearts' content (I know I do!); but we can only 'boom' the weather once it's happened.😁

Edited by Ed Stone

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