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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

better than 'that' EC', I reckon on 5 Dec '12

ECM0-216.GIF?17-0

Now you've done it!! you had to mention " That ECM" .. you've damned this entire cold spell!

 

 

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Well the 12z ECM keeps up on its own theme, the other models have definitely moved towards the flatter solution but the ECM is a very stubborn model and is exceptional when it comes to these set-ups. Even so, the king ECM can and has got these things wrong at this range.

The great thing is I think most paths lead to cold and probable snow set-ups one way or the other, its just how long it takes to get there and just how deep does the cold go.

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I will on a rare occasion talk about my location .

That ECM day 8 is exceptional for here , Northern Med low and a strong ne flow into sw France .

Okay that’s it !

 

I'm sick of your IMBYism Nick! 

 

Jacakanackanory! 

ECM1-216.GIF?17-0

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Just now, phil nw. said:

Yes the old Genoa low Nick often a vital part of the Easterly set up.I would like to see a stronger Scandi high if i was being picky,but it's pretty good even if it verified like that.Very cold with plenty of snow chances.

Yes great stuff from the ECM so far . I might start having to stock pile soon!  

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8 minutes ago, southbank said:

Surely the record snowfall in southern German /Austria may play a part in temps at the surface as air circulates around the low ?

They are going to be buried big style with that stagnant cold low hovering over them for days. 

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Cold cold cold at 240, easterly running out of juice but awaiting the next attack from the North West

image.thumb.png.000a62055945e89309af710c961ccc71.png image.thumb.png.e7f83f0c78f110318c4d2c3d149d4b21.png

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Me a ring the slight north easterly component and remembering unless the flow comes directly from the east or south east I get sod all like last year lol.

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Slight similarities with the gfs 6z run after 168/192 other than somewhat of a flatter pattern to the north at 240... the cold quicker to get on this ecm 12z run though.

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Atlantic bog off !

Forget it , it’s desperately trying to move in and throws an ugly PV at us but still not managing it because of low pressure over southern Europe.

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On 12/01/2019 at 19:41, gottolovethisweather said:

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

I've been a tad too busy to catch up with this thread but will look now, but is my option above still on the cards. Likewise, I need to hear a BBC long-ranger for once, with immediate wintry prospects a bit meh, surely next week into the end of January will deliver snowy scenes?

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Just now, nick sussex said:

Atlantic bog off !

Forget it , it’s desperately trying to move in and throws an ugly PV at us but still not managing it because of low pressure over southern Europe.

Hopefully, it links arms with that S Europe low and we get a massive undercut. Happened in 1947 a few times! 

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I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

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Great ECM but until UKMO ON BOARD refuse to get too carried away.Been here too many times for it to go TU  at last minute.Just hope that this time NEXT WEEK we will be toasting that the ECM was on the money.

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The roller-coaster is in over-drive now after that ECM.😍

 

Loving the output for midweek with that fast transition from a cold westerly to an even colder easterly.

 

ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.31c2b38ee229896c89d179a17abf4120.GIFECM1-168.thumb.GIF.d0b8b9cc65d00a14293f637e046aebed.GIF

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1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Surely nobody really believes that this mornings runs would verify? It’s like expecting your lottery numbers to come up twice!

in the last 24 hours we have seen them swing from one extreme to another. They will nearly always settle on a middle ground. No way will ECM repeat its 00z run. Set your bar at a reasonable level! I’m pretty sure it will get cold but very cold is still in doubt.

You were saying? 😆

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7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Panic over for now, the 12z EC has clean separation of the Euro trough from upper westerlies near Greenland after early-mid week disruption and BOOM!

ECMWF high res gets 10/10, GFS op 6/10, UKMO 4/10 from me.

 

Great run.

I'm just looking at the GFS ensembles for Tuesday, definitely an upgrade there with more models having a more pure NW shot.

So we may have a trade off between a 48-72hrs easterly shot, or a countrywide snow event from the front as it comes south. Both sound decent to me.

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Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Hopefully, it links arms with that S Europe low and we get a massive undercut. Happened in 1947 a few times! 

You look great for your age! 😎

Seriously though the ECM is great . We need that bit of luck between day 5 and 7 though and certainly need the UKMO to stop its grinch routine .

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Copy and pasted 

NWS suggest GFS/GEFS are outliers with regards to the USA storm track and placed more weight in the EC 00z so the fact the EC 12z remains favourable for cold could suggest it's along the right track, however nothing guaranteed of course. Awaiting the EPS with interest

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3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

I know I'm going to get blasted for posting this but it shows no snow accumulation away from Wales on Tuesday. It is possible that it will be a rain event on Tuesday? Just asking the question?

image.png

Was just about to post the same...must be a DP or DAM issue? Uppers and ground temps look ok. Anyone with access to that data able to share?

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30 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Jesus H! Not what I was saying at all!  A straw man argument if ever there was one! This is a model discussion thread...

It was a tongue in cheek response!

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