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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

 

image.png

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Are you talkin bout this saturday cos ecm was showing a significant event for midlands for tomorrow on yesterdays 12z!!

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

 

D9F7EC08-8D44-426A-9C47-26B16C5A142E.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Not much snow from the front on ec op raw data - DP's too high as the front comes through (and weakens as it does so). plenty to be resolved yet

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC looks a corker..

However, chalk and cheese to UKMO at 144..

No cross model consensus still..

UKMO looks washed out upstream , it’s done this before . Flatter and doesn’t develop the Pacific shortwave over the central ne USA.

Too much energy spills east at day 6 , the ECM develops the low sw of Greenland into one feature.

I thought it was garbage earlier and still think the UKMO has got this wrong.

But we do need it onside.

Lets hope for less drama in the morning !

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168, the lady is not for turning!

image.thumb.jpg.83381d6351d0d9bcb41471928971b103.jpg

Oh yes, the low exiting the US disrupts, the trough drops and the two highs link up... boom! 

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5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Negligible.

https://meteologix.com/ie/model-charts/euro/great-britain/snow-depth/20190119-1400z.html

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14 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Absolutely! Tonight’s ECM has no effect on the weather whatsoever!

Jesus H! Not what I was saying at all!  A straw man argument if ever there was one! This is a model discussion thread...

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3 minutes ago, WalsallWeather123 said:

 

image.png

That doesn't match the output take with pinch of salt! 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Have to say, latest ECM looking like a classic troposphere response to SSW - heights magically lowering to the north between T96 and T144. 

Do you mean heights rising?

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes of course- but for those with memories like finding Nemo, do we just erase the GFS performance this week- Where have they all ended up- bang on the ECM doorstep... ( & UKMO )

144 fab- very cold at the surface over the UK - Tuesdays snow event looking quite widespread

** Also anyone got the weather US snow for ECM Sat AM - looks good for the midlands & the South **

Also i get where your coming from cos latest hirlam has snow of up to 9cms for central england tomorrow night lol!

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KA. BOOM. Shall we have a peoples vote? 

ECM.thumb.gif.98cf2daccee2994052791e2b02313091.gif

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The link up of that Arctic high with the Atlantic high is as crucial as that low in esb..

ECH1-144 (3).gif

ECH1-168 (3).gif

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