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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

GFS Ensembles also support earlier run with a Westerly this is not done deal by a long short

I agree also a very important EC46 for the long term pattern tonight will it remain on track?

Edited by Kentspur
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2 minutes ago, Minnizi said:

You'll learn who too take note off. Such as @tight isobar @bluearmy @'bringback 96/67 @nickF  @polar maritime theres a few more too

Yeah I do. Just joshing.

I have still no idea what they're talking about mind. But if they get happy.......bingo.

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The GFS para has a fairly decent signal for snow across most areas on Tuesday for what it's worth.

Maybe this will be a case of looking closer to home for the snow?

PS, no real blocking on the 12z para again...BUT jet is angled nicely still so fair shot at another cutoff happening on that run.

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

The closer you get to the slider, the more that will have been resolved upstream,so you are at the point where it must get sorted soon, so over the next day, the runs will get more important as we go along, if the Easterly does happen or even if it doesn't, obviously what happens afterwards will be FI for a good few days yet, so that isn't as crucial.

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Surely nobody really believes that this mornings runs would verify? It’s like expecting your lottery numbers to come up twice!

in the last 24 hours we have seen them swing from one extreme to another. They will nearly always settle on a middle ground. No way will ECM repeat its 00z run. Set your bar at a reasonable level! I’m pretty sure it will get cold but very cold is still in doubt.

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Facinating GFS 12z, in all my years model watching I don’t think I have ever seen a mainland Europe/scandi cold pool actually move north and west, instead of being shunted south and east into Greece as you would expect!! Maybe the SSW is finally downwelling with some intent :0

crazy run FI run!!

some serious Europe wide undercutting there. 

Yes the cold 850s haven’t made it to our patch yet but the synoptics are remarkable and loaded.

4195B696-315D-46B9-8C98-9D10BA44C05A.thumb.png.10bc2fc2df2c2c075bfe36730bf53a2b.png

B4D14F46-53DA-41B4-B33E-CFA4D613461D.thumb.png.76bbce47c2f5550e118cbe22310fc6c4.png

 

Edited by chris55
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still a very good run from GFS

I did not expect to be driving through a heavy snow shower this morning either! That was not forecasted at all. So let’s watch these next few days actually out of the window/garden, as some surprises could crop up! If timings are decent, then a lot of us could wake up to snow on the weekend. 

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16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Massive swing away from the Easterly solution on the GEFS too

GEFS.thumb.png.31f2d2c06dd0b41535bb5a3139f5784d.png

Just as an FYI for those who usually say that the ensembles are the way forward, this is a complete 180 in the space of a single run. Shannon Entropy got a friend it would seem.

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

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9 minutes ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

This point has been argued for years - a certain run is described as "critical", "crucial", "important" or whatever, when, in fact, scientifically, they're identical in terms of importance.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The closer you get to the slider, the more that will have been resolved upstream,so you are at the point where it must get sorted soon, so over the next day, the runs will get more important as we go along, if the Easterly does happen or even if it doesn't, obviously what happens afterwards will be FI for a good few days yet, so that isn't as crucial.

Yes quite, the music is about to stop for that important synoptic chance after D5, so any movement one way or other will be uplifting or downbeat. Not really what we want so close to the event are downgrades? The wedge of heights towards the NE would have been a nice filler before the Pacific amplification rather than back to a PM zonal take.

As people say we will get there in the end and another false dawn is at least compensated with snow chances early next week.

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

??

1.thumb.png.dc1a856b4bbe0a41c34a589a2e7a09e5.png2.thumb.png.b696aed567ffb4b9f7d0c4de7ad05494.png

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5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes quite, the music is about to stop for that important synoptic chance after D5, so any movement one way or other will be uplifting or downbeat. Not really what we want so close to the event are downgrades? The wedge of heights towards the NE would have been a nice filler before the Pacific amplification rather than back to a PM zonal take.

As people say we will get there in the end and another false dawn is at least compensated with snow chances early next week.

Yes - that's the point - where there are massive uncertainties in the short range, thats more crucial, Where as the Greeny high in FI potential, really could not show for another 10 runs of all models and it would still have a chance, if this slider is too far East and the ridge behind it is flatter and no decent Easterly is showing by the end of tomorrow, it is game over for that particular Easterly, with the persistent trough to the south yes im sure more chances will come as GP said, but that one will have gone - indisputable fact.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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24 minutes ago, IDO said:

The GFSp is not great, pattern too far east, very little wedge development and thus a flatter pattern likely:

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.03d8a85171735c21467ef9a947a4e455.png

image.thumb.png.ce438a2769faf16fae0c3859d3cf3b0b.png

image.thumb.png.af8118eb8704eac608eb5969f862339e.png

Likely or not its an excellent run..

And very snowy..

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The latest from NCEP short term discussion .

Their preferred blend for the central and eastern Conus is the ECM 00hrs and NAM 12 hrs early on adding in a bit of the GFS 12hrs later .

Thats for today till midnight Monday.

The caveat here is that it’s the lunchtime update , there will be a further one after tonights ECM.

In terms of tonights UKMO no mention of the 12 hrs yet .

The ECM 00hrs run was the closest to the ensemble means . They have seen a bit more speed to the upstream pattern but there’s still uncertainty and even allowing for that the UKMO still looks dubious IMO between day 4 and 5.

Anyway we await the ECM verdict !

Edited by nick sussex
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.ce438a2769faf16fae0c3859d3cf3b0b.png

image.thumb.png.af8118eb8704eac608eb5969f862339e.png

Likely or not its an excellent run..

And very snowy..

That is a general hope, the flatter pattern will receive a second chance of diving lows into the Euro trough after D10.

I was talking about post D5, getting some wedges into the flow and having a colder blocked 5-7 days before that second shot.

Your right, both the op and control in FI are consistent with that pattern and that can only be good...

 

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - that's the point - where there are massive uncertainties in the short range, thats more crucial, Where as the Greeny high in FI potential, really could not show for another 10 runs of all models and it would still have a chance, if this slider is too far East and the ridge behind it is flatter and no decent Easterly is showing by the end of tomorrow, it is game over for that particular Easterly, with the persistent trough to the south yes im sure more chances will come as GP said, but that one will have gone - indisputable fact.

There are no indisputable facts which is why statements like "downgrade" or "upgrade" in are meaningless in isolation. It's all probability on deterministic models, and although probability increases as you get closer to T0, it doesn't always increase at the same rate. That is why you cannot say that one run or another will definitely "nail a pattern".

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12 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

Indeed ...GFSp gets there in the end. Trouble is this model viewing malarkey is a bit like chasing pots of gold at the end of rainbows...

36BDDA0A-6ED8-4669-8DB4-C086075EF4EB.png

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23 minutes ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

I think the point has been made that we now see "as modelled "the likelihood of a trough to our S/E which is going to be fed by sister vortex.

How long it's fed is the question?

The longer it stays in situ the colder the air becomes entrenched. I don't think getting the v cold is a drawn out thing either.

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Decent enough 12z para run, not as snowy as the 06z para as we get a more straight flow from the NW as the upper low dives down. Still plenty of snow for Midlands north though (rain for south initially).

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Decent enough 12z para run, not as snowy as the 06z para as we get a more straight flow from the NW as the upper low dives down. Still plenty of snow for Midlands north though (rain for south initially).

All variations of a very cold theme

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18 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

still a very good run from GFS

I did not expect to be driving through a heavy snow shower this morning either! That was not forecasted at all. So let’s watch these next few days actually out of the window/garden, as some surprises could crop up! If timings are decent, then a lot of us could wake up to snow on the weekend. 

Sorry, that's fake news. The fleeting snow had been predicted for several days. 

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Comparing today with yesterday GFS 12z for 22nd Jan.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.9b6614b720ba2baa73b346750075b31a.png423462373_gfsnh-0-144(1).thumb.png.bf2c8f3f8fc9eaae1f690d4683dfab19.png

So much model uncertainty so looking nearer time very little change on those.

We look at day 5 on today;s UKMO

UN120-21.thumb.gif.2007571b00268cd748310ab5304dc481.gif

Same trend,cold,trough heading se across the UK and still a little wedge of heights over to our ne -Scandinavia.After that?well we know details will change.

 

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