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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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This relates to the model output, as expected ECMWF is No.1 An important ECMWF 12Z.

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Well having trawled through that lot and read various frame by frame interpretations i thought I'd look myself.

Cold / V cold on the table.

Sod wether we get an Easterly ......yet

It WILL get very cold next week.

Thinking Sisters been on the lash and is chucking up all over us

 

anim_mjq9.gif

anim_crg8.gif

anim_sea4.gif

anim_kid5.gif

Edited by winterof79
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Overall still a good run.

This shows that as long as we can get those cutoff troughs diving into Europe one will eventually take hold.

Several snow chances on the 12z before that, though sadly those very likely are over cooked as per the GFS norm on a W/NW type airflow.

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It got there in the end! 

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GFS repeats the pattern in FI

8F7F765B-783F-483C-9976-27B523A4BF46.png

48D8EC5A-7A98-491A-8CEB-9EA823903759.png

466FBE45-4030-48BB-89C3-1C993BFB7CF8.png

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Tonights outputs so far show why a low dropping se and ridge building over the top are rare .

Its always that last hurdle that’s the hardest . However the track of the low will continue to change and there’s another one after that we’ll have to watch .

There is a little bit of insurance because originally the models weren’t that keen on much going on to the ne . The high pressure wedge there will help to disrupt energy away from low pressure near the UK and force a more se jet track .

So certainly things haven’t got off to a flying start this evening but there’s time for changes.

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Worth noting the 12z GFS is almost identical in terms of timing of the next cutoff troughs diving into Europe right in the back end of January.b

Despite the dislike for the 06z para, it was actually a reasonably snowy run when you look through it.

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2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

You are not really correct. They 'look' at it but do not use it as a main model, their own and ECMWF are the main sources of model input.

E mail them and ask if you want proof.

 

John, you've misinterpreted my post, see further post on thread where I reposted the exact quote from a met office source 

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Looking at the D5 GEFS viz the complicated pattern US storm -v-Atlantic Ridge -v- trough -v- wedge-gate, we see entropy in the handling:

gens_panel_okp9.png >>> D8: gens_panel_gdv3.png

Although TBH the trend this evening is so far not great, there are plenty of options on the table that play out better in the GEFS. Though there are some even more progressive than the op to flatten the pattern (eg Control). So as we were, the second low diving SE and then maybe blocking, may be flat, maybe something in between!

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17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tonights outputs so far show why a low dropping se and ridge building over the top are rare .

Its always that last hurdle that’s the hardest . However the track of the low will continue to change and there’s another one after that we’ll have to watch .

There is a little bit of insurance because originally the models weren’t that keen on much going on to the ne . The high pressure wedge there will help to disrupt energy away from low pressure near the UK and force a more se jet track .

So certainly things haven’t got off to a flying start this evening but there’s time for changes.

Upstream is important of course. I think for the first attempt we are reliant on the upstream flow playing ball. However, with MJO forecast to go into phase 6 by around 23rd I think that we will be less reliant on tiny differences upstream.

In short, probability of much colder air increases with each subsequent system dropping SE. At the moment we are totally reliant on SSW overriding MJO signal and the correct phasing of energy over the US. With MJO onside,  we should start to see more outcomes favour better variations no matter what happens upstream (although of course there is still linkage).

Edited by WhiteFox
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Day seven looks crucial: if we tap into the cold pool straight way, as was indicated by the 06Z, the cold would most likely last a good wee while; the 12Z, however, suggests a more convoluted, messy evolution...One that, from experience, might never happen at all...?

12Zimage.thumb.png.ccbdd79b810958ee19f127bceb045f77.png   

06Zimage.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Excellent output this evening with plenty of snow and ice on the agenda- ooops, did i say agenda..

UKMO 120-

image.thumb.png.ec11f8ef4150b75ef52cbbc8caa3869d.png

GFS 120-

image.thumb.png.257ce47bbb2ed4c371afbb089c352b86.png

They differ thereafter, but still look cold.

 

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Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

GFS Ensembles also support earlier run with a Westerly this is not done deal by a long short

Edited by Skullzrulerz
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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

The ECM is always VERY important.  It’s the Gold Standard.

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Massive swing away from the Easterly solution on the GEFS too

GEFS.thumb.png.31f2d2c06dd0b41535bb5a3139f5784d.png

Just as an FYI for those who usually say that the ensembles are the way forward, this is a complete 180 in the space of a single run. Shannon Entropy got a friend it would seem.

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating.

Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges. 

I’m still concerned about how deep it gets (re sustainability) and how far south it establishes 

the suites continue to show the size of the envelope - still too early to be confident on how this trough drops and how much of it drops ......

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The GFSp is not great, pattern too far east, very little wedge development and thus a flatter pattern likely:

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.03d8a85171735c21467ef9a947a4e455.png

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4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating.

Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges. 

Yeah I agree, hence why even though the setup on the 06z GFS para didn't look great, the cutoff lows that kept diving down offered ample chances at snow events. Not all would come off, but even if the scandi high forms I'd say based on that the chances for snow are above normal for now.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ECM is always VERY important.  It’s the Gold Standard.

No question about it in just a hours time we see either it sticking to its guns or joins some if not to a flatter pattern

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51 minutes ago, Bogman said:

So basically, the downgrade is it's not "Day After Tomorrow" territory then.

 

I'm as confused as a man who's put in a barrel and told to go sit in the corner. 😵

You'll learn who too take note off. Such as @tight isobar @bluearmy @'bringback 96/67 @nickF  @polar maritime theres a few more too

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1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

It's no more and no less important than the 0z run.  It could easily show a GFS style evolution tonight and then revert back to the 0z tomorrow morning. We will not know for sure until the energy moving into the US on the STJ phases  with the energy coming from the PFJ and even then  there will still be small variance.

Background signals consistently favour the Euro trough as highlighted by @Glacier Point, so it is meaningless to write off any cold solution at this stage especially as the signals for northern blocking actually increase as we go forward.

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