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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Excellent output this evening with plenty of snow and ice on the agenda- ooops, did i say agenda..

UKMO 120-

image.thumb.png.ec11f8ef4150b75ef52cbbc8caa3869d.png

GFS 120-

image.thumb.png.257ce47bbb2ed4c371afbb089c352b86.png

They differ thereafter, but still look cold.

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

GFS Ensembles also support earlier run with a Westerly this is not done deal by a long short

Edited by Skullzrulerz
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

The ECM is always VERY important.  It’s the Gold Standard.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Massive swing away from the Easterly solution on the GEFS too

GEFS.thumb.png.31f2d2c06dd0b41535bb5a3139f5784d.png

Just as an FYI for those who usually say that the ensembles are the way forward, this is a complete 180 in the space of a single run. Shannon Entropy got a friend it would seem.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating.

Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges. 

I’m still concerned about how deep it gets (re sustainability) and how far south it establishes 

the suites continue to show the size of the envelope - still too early to be confident on how this trough drops and how much of it drops ......

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

The GFSp is not great, pattern too far east, very little wedge development and thus a flatter pattern likely:

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.03d8a85171735c21467ef9a947a4e455.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Beyond all the model noise right now, one constant. That Euro trough is omnipresent, and an unusual feature in its persistence and depth. Once that becomes cold next week, the permutations become inherently wintry, and to a large degree self perpetuating.

Whether that's mid Atlantic ridging pronounced enough to force an early Greenland ridge, jet dropping to our west on a NW-SE axis, cold Scandinavian ridges. 

Yeah I agree, hence why even though the setup on the 06z GFS para didn't look great, the cutoff lows that kept diving down offered ample chances at snow events. Not all would come off, but even if the scandi high forms I'd say based on that the chances for snow are above normal for now.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The ECM is always VERY important.  It’s the Gold Standard.

No question about it in just a hours time we see either it sticking to its guns or joins some if not to a flatter pattern

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Posted
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold, hot sunny summer's and autumn storms
  • Location: Bromborough WIRRAL
51 minutes ago, Bogman said:

So basically, the downgrade is it's not "Day After Tomorrow" territory then.

 

I'm as confused as a man who's put in a barrel and told to go sit in the corner. 

You'll learn who too take note off. Such as @tight isobar @bluearmy @'bringback 96/67 @nickF  @polar maritime theres a few more too

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

It's no more and no less important than the 0z run.  It could easily show a GFS style evolution tonight and then revert back to the 0z tomorrow morning. We will not know for sure until the energy moving into the US on the STJ phases  with the energy coming from the PFJ and even then  there will still be small variance.

Background signals consistently favour the Euro trough as highlighted by @Glacier Point, so it is meaningless to write off any cold solution at this stage especially as the signals for northern blocking actually increase as we go forward.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Personally I see a VERY important ECM tonight 

It needs to stay on track but it's starts going off track I think its best to say that this so called beast from the east will be just a cold spell

GFS Ensembles also support earlier run with a Westerly this is not done deal by a long short

I agree also a very important EC46 for the long term pattern tonight will it remain on track?

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Codicote, Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Minnizi said:

You'll learn who too take note off. Such as @tight isobar @bluearmy @'bringback 96/67 @nickF  @polar maritime theres a few more too

Yeah I do. Just joshing.

I have still no idea what they're talking about mind. But if they get happy.......bingo.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The GFS para has a fairly decent signal for snow across most areas on Tuesday for what it's worth.

Maybe this will be a case of looking closer to home for the snow?

PS, no real blocking on the 12z para again...BUT jet is angled nicely still so fair shot at another cutoff happening on that run.

Edited by kold weather
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At last we have what we've been predicting - a poleward surge in +ve AAM.  Another important piece in the jigsaw for Arctic blocking:

1200044253_17.1.19aamrelten.thumb.PNG.0410eec056a369134b045a53be096d0c.PNG

The relative GLAAM tendency anomaly has spiked upwards and looks set to reach its highest level of the winter.

1538679557_17.1_19mt.thumb.PNG.ad48bc84aead02e8f1dccded17fa0f2e.PNG

Global MT is surging upwards and both NAMT and EAMT are strongly +ve too.

1986537333_17.1.19GWO.thumb.PNG.0723ef2cc15d0481251b2ffd42b22508.PNG

The GWO has already looped back into phase 5 and is set to go into a much higher orbit through phases 5, 6 and 7.

This is the strong tropical forcing that we've been saying is needed to assist the down welling in the stratosphere. So far, I believe that the models have just begun to sniff out the SSW surface impacts.  They usually struggle to pick up on the tropical forcing.  So we go from a pretty destructive phase into a really constructive one. In the mid term (say day 10 onwards but perhaps sooner and remember that these charts have a 2 day output time lag) this should hugely assist with the HLB patterns.  I would expect the models to start picking up on this over the next few days but with various blocking outcomes and solutions.

A CAUTIONARY NOTE:  We still need to monitor how the jet stream phasing in the Pacific behaves and this has impacts on the US storm system(s) and a knock on down stream in the Atlantic.  This may or not not be favourable in the short term but given the prolonged SSW event, the strength of the MT spikes and poleward momentum the opportunity is likely to persist for many days (or weeks).  

Continued exciting model watching for the rest of this month and beyond.  No more time this week.  David    

Edited by Guest
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

The closer you get to the slider, the more that will have been resolved upstream,so you are at the point where it must get sorted soon, so over the next day, the runs will get more important as we go along, if the Easterly does happen or even if it doesn't, obviously what happens afterwards will be FI for a good few days yet, so that isn't as crucial.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

Surely nobody really believes that this mornings runs would verify? It’s like expecting your lottery numbers to come up twice!

in the last 24 hours we have seen them swing from one extreme to another. They will nearly always settle on a middle ground. No way will ECM repeat its 00z run. Set your bar at a reasonable level! I’m pretty sure it will get cold but very cold is still in doubt.

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

Agree with Paul; there's too much going on for any particular model run to be given much merit.

Models really struggling with how much height rise we see via the stratospheric imprint to our N/NE, how much gets thrown at it from the disintegrating Canadian vortex, and how soon the door opens (thanks to the MJO returning to the Pacific) for the main height rises to then shift over to Iceland/Greenland.

A freakish triple-barrelled shotgun loaded with entropy.

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Facinating GFS 12z, in all my years model watching I don’t think I have ever seen a mainland Europe/scandi cold pool actually move north and west, instead of being shunted south and east into Greece as you would expect!! Maybe the SSW is finally downwelling with some intent :0

crazy run FI run!!

some serious Europe wide undercutting there. 

Yes the cold 850s haven’t made it to our patch yet but the synoptics are remarkable and loaded.

4195B696-315D-46B9-8C98-9D10BA44C05A.thumb.png.10bc2fc2df2c2c075bfe36730bf53a2b.png

B4D14F46-53DA-41B4-B33E-CFA4D613461D.thumb.png.76bbce47c2f5550e118cbe22310fc6c4.png

 

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

still a very good run from GFS

I did not expect to be driving through a heavy snow shower this morning either! That was not forecasted at all. So let’s watch these next few days actually out of the window/garden, as some surprises could crop up! If timings are decent, then a lot of us could wake up to snow on the weekend. 

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
16 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Massive swing away from the Easterly solution on the GEFS too

GEFS.thumb.png.31f2d2c06dd0b41535bb5a3139f5784d.png

Just as an FYI for those who usually say that the ensembles are the way forward, this is a complete 180 in the space of a single run. Shannon Entropy got a friend it would seem.

Run it on just a couple of frames and see how it all sinks South, its better than you are portraying 

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
9 minutes ago, Paul said:

No runs are 'important' at the moment, as there's so much flux run to run. The ecm tonight may be amazing for cold/snow, then the 00z tomorrow may be totally different, and vice versa. I'd not be judging any single run from any model at any more than face value right now.

This point has been argued for years - a certain run is described as "critical", "crucial", "important" or whatever, when, in fact, scientifically, they're identical in terms of importance.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The closer you get to the slider, the more that will have been resolved upstream,so you are at the point where it must get sorted soon, so over the next day, the runs will get more important as we go along, if the Easterly does happen or even if it doesn't, obviously what happens afterwards will be FI for a good few days yet, so that isn't as crucial.

Yes quite, the music is about to stop for that important synoptic chance after D5, so any movement one way or other will be uplifting or downbeat. Not really what we want so close to the event are downgrades? The wedge of heights towards the NE would have been a nice filler before the Pacific amplification rather than back to a PM zonal take.

As people say we will get there in the end and another false dawn is at least compensated with snow chances early next week.

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