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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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GEM also disappointing, will we be left with just KING GFS by the end of the day!

gem-0-168.thumb.png.61caecf6ef17e5f9032d621e08b48747.png

Caveat GEM has never really been with the program.

Edited by IDO

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12 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Man it's so confusing in here it's unbelievable ? Is this a downgrade/upgrade ????

With experience you will start to learn who to listen to and who to ignore on this forum. 

12z’s so far show a variation to the theme. We will keep getting these variations until we get the easterly into the 72/96hr time frame. We’re still on the right path. 

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gfs-0-204.png?12image.thumb.png.340a4e4b58e6483031789d8ce115767a.png

With the cold pool to the east any slider (that wouldnt be snowy) would unleash the cold and allow it to back west.
 

Edited by frosty ground

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Whats the odds the FV3 becomes the gold choice model in 1hr flips against the others.🙂

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OK NOAA you can pull the plug on the old GFS now 🙄

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The models tend to have an eastward bias as shown with the slider over the next couple of days. At one point it was sliding down the coast of Norway. 

Im sure the pattern for next week will be further west given known model bias. 

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Country wide snow event showing again on the GFS for Tuesday. How likely to happen do you all think this is??? ❄️☃️🤞

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

Whats the odds the FV3 becomes the gold choice model in 1hr flips against the others.🙂

The same odds that people will make the same joke every day for the rest of winer. Your not getting odds on a dead cert pal

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Just now, Kieran said:

Country wide snow event showing again on the GFS for Tuesday. How likely to happen do you all think this is??? ❄️☃️🤞

I’d say fairly likely now that at least some will see a snow event Tues. There isn’t many models not backing it. Sweet spot looks to be NW especially with elevation but it will come down to 24hrs before and the high res models to decipher 

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

 

Thats why US forecasters always pick it ahead of the others for nor’easters.

Interestingly The Met mentioned in their Media output that a system of the West Coast of the US which is due to become a Nor'easter and firing up the Jet is the cause of the uncertainty

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The GFS fails with the first try and we will have to see another attempt around D10 to get sustained cold blocking.

We have a small window as after D7 we see a Pacific Ridge and this will tighten up the PV and send lower heights to the Atlantic. If we don't get a block by then, we will have to await the next turn!

D9 >>> 1927570796_gfs-0-216(2).thumb.png.f83f171eee034d5f97177f41ef7cb487.png

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gfs-0-228.png?12

That's one hell of a cold pool over Europe, a few hundred mile shift east and we are out of the game, but as this post says maybe not

7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

The models tend to have an eastward bias as shown with the slider over the next couple of days. At one point it was sliding down the coast of Norway. 

Im sure the pattern for next week will be further west given known model bias. 

 

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I think some runs are showing if you dont have enough amplification in the Atlantic then it is a struggle to eject true cold westwards even with any height rises up in Scandinavia.

The main trend of dropping a trough over the UK is still there but big question marks of how much cold air will be mixed in by the time it gets here which of course will determine just how widespread any snow event could be.

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The gfs has the trough a tad further west at T120 and  and then subsequent to that the strong ridging north east is not put under much pressure until the energy sweeping up the eastern seaboard (160kt jet) and around the Bermuda high pressure pushes it south east by T192 and thus the cold advection into the UK is snipped with the very cold air left over Poland

gfs_z500_vort_natl_21.thumb.png.125efe7212a3bef515354ddcca229539.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_29.thumb.png.1003a0aa1117c8a1d602d5e5deec3f2c.pnggfs_z500_vort_natl_34.thumb.png.276399ae48e50041fed218be12603671.png

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6 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

Interestingly The Met mentioned in their Media output that a system of the West Coast of the US which is due to become a Nor'easter and firing up the Jet is the cause of the uncertainty

Yes that storm has always been important  to us in Western Europe .

But there’s two factors at play that and the high pressure developing to the ne. After this storm there’s another Pacific shortwave due as more amplification develops over the central USA.

As that runs east it will effect energy to the west of Iceland as a little ridge builds ahead of the shortwave over the ne USA.

The first output re the current storm  to phase correctly the north and south jets was the ECM.

I’d take the lead from that upto day 6.

 

Edited by nick sussex

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-228.png?12

That's one hell of a cold pool over Europe, a few hundred mile shift east and we are out of the game, but as this post says maybe not

 

Confused - if that pattern was further west we would benefit. I was predominently referring to pressure patterns anyway.

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Just now, Geordiesnow said:

I think some runs are showing if you dont have enough amplification in the Atlantic then it is a struggle to eject true cold westwards even with any height rises up in Scandinavia.

The main trend of dropping a trough over the UK is still there but big question marks of how much cold air will be mixed in by the time it gets here which of course will determine just how widespread any snow event could be.

I think the issue was to much amplification in the Atlantic, the Wedge of heights was in place
gfs-0-126.png?12 

Atlantic high gets toppled east ulike the 06z run which sank back before amplifying with a new serge of heights. 

gfs-0-150.png?12
 

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To summarise, no one on planet earth knows what’s happening past about Monday with any certainty. Upgrades, then downgrades. I wouldn’t get to run down on the any model run currently. The weather will do what the weather wants. And right now it’s cold, there’s been some snow in some parts and it’s remaining cold for the next 5 days Atleast. Winter is here

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2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Confused - if that pattern was further west we would benefit. I was predominently referring to pressure patterns anyway.

If the patter was backed west then the cold pool would be further west nearer the UK.

 

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The PV over Canada is just too far east and the storm out of the US elongates and starts to phase when really we need it discrete.

IF we aren't to get an easterly, there maybe other shots at cold, seemsbto be a pattern for cutoff lows dropping into Europe right now.

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The second shot after D10 is cold and snowy by D14-D16:

gfs-0-372.thumb.png.e576f1bdd3d46d2381dcdfd94c73f363.png

Not sure if model fatigue would have taken hold by then...?

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